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Of course Coolmore would rather win the Irish Guineas with her, ham. They want her to be fit but everything points to her not being fit. The point is the number of AOB’s 3yo who’ve not run to form first time out (including a number who’ve won but not run to form) is enormous. Added to that the fact Opera Singer herself has had an injury since last seen… And the fact there’s no money for her (as yet)… All of which TOGETHER mean I’d be very surprised if Opera Singer ran to form and just how far below her best she’s likely to be is extremely difficult to know. ie It could easily be enough to see her unplaced today, which is why I wouldn’t be taking 6/1.
Of course she’s “here to win a Classic”, they’ll try. She might even be good enough to win without being at her best. One thing is for sure though, if “The Lads” thought she was in A1 condition there is no way they’d let her go off anything longer than 2/1. ie If Opera Singer was to win with an SP of 4/1 then she’d be defying Coolmore’s own expectations.
Everything I’ve said should be forgotten about if she shortens significantly not just a little but a lot) before the off.
I have now played though:
Backed Fallen Angel 4/1, Purple Lily 9.5/1 and Skellett 12.5/1.When working a race like this out I’ll give Opera Singer 3% less than the best odds about her (whatever those odds are at the time)… and then work the others out around her. So if OS was 7/2 I’d rate her 19%, if 4/1 17%, 5/1 14% etc.
Although I have reduced stakes because of the doubts.
Value Is Everything“I find it hard to believe that @13/8 if there was money around youd be a backer but at 6/1 you would touch her e/w to 4 places, the maths not mathing on that one, even by your own metric the percentage chance she finishes in the first 4 at 6/1 has to be far greater than the chance she doesnt and at that price, should she run to form, your gaining an incredibly large edge that she might against a large field generally rated a stone below her”
———————————-I didn’t say I’d back her @ 13/8 – as the race is now – ham.
What I meant was had Opera Singer not had a set back and had AOB’s 3 year old first time out strike rate been a lot better… Then on her form as well as potential shown at two I’d have been willing to take 13/8.You say “should she run to form, your gaining an incredibly large edge”. I don’t know before the race she’ll run to form and therefore have to make a judgement on how likely she is of running to form or even improving… Both are (at the moment) imo slim.
Value Is EverythingBit of a last minute flutter, I think Skellet could be
interesting. She will have had to train on but just beaten
last time by Dance Sequence.Skellet 11/1 Paddy Power
Lovely jubbly , put it to bed very easily , helps the guineas look like a decent renewal
Well done winners, the British form was confirmed today with Karl Burke also-rans (8th and 14th) winning two Classics (Irish and German 1,000 Guineas) today.
Delighted with that.
Had A Lilac Rolla at 11/2 w/o two favourites and at 8/1 without Falling Angel.
The winner is very classy but Opera singer has run a good enough race to suggest she can put it up to her next time.
GM, what is Opera Singer’s proper trip 8 or 10f? I always thought she’d be suited by a not so testing 10f.
I’d agree with that, GM.
At first glance Fallen Angel should be fav for the Coronation because she won quite easily, but Opera Singer should be second fav.Value Is EverythingOpera Singer could go anywhere up to 12f. Hard to know where she goes next without an AOB quote.
I suspect Coolmore believe they have only two potentially really good fillies this season. One is Ylang Ylang and the other Opera Singer. Opera Singer may have gone for the Oaks if there was no Ylang Ylang or if they had another good candidate for the Coronation… But Ylang Ylang looks to need further than a mile and they don’t have another good Coronation candidate… And Opera Singer (at this stage) is effective at a mile (will probably stay 12f in the future).
Value Is EverythingAs I said after Newmarket:
“The other thing to look at is the draw.
16 beats 15, 11, 4, 12, 14.
The only one drawn far side to get into it was Tamfana who had to switch to the near side to get a run.
The 6th placed in 14 being rank outsider Rolica.I would not be at all surprised if the form does not work out.
Best of those to race far side:
Cinderella’s Dream, Fallen Angel. Don’t discount those from turning the tables”.The fact the 1000 was too strongly run, favouring those held up… And favoured those drawn near-side meant Fallen Angel’s performance could be forgiven.
Value Is Everything
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