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Hi all, In this thread I’ll be posting all my lays and reason’s behind them time permitting, all comments are welcome so please feel free to rubbish me etc
I like to hear people view’s wether you back or lay.My staking plan is based on my starting bank on the 14-02-08 of £1,000, If I make it to £2,000 I will withdraw the original starting bank and continue on a dailly updated rolling bank, this is definatly not a get rich quick scheme as I never have any set amount I would like to win just bet when I feel I have horses running for me. The total profit so far from Thursday is £66.60, I will post a monthly profit/loss at the end of each month, below is my staking plan
Prices below 3.5: lay to 1% of bank – backer’s stake £10
Prices from 3.55 to 7.4: lay to 0.6% of bank – backer’s stake £6
Prices from 7.5 to 11: lay to 0.4% of bank – backer’s stake £4
Prices from 11.5 to 21: lay to 0.2% of bank – backer’s stake £2
Prices from 22 to 42: lay to 0.1% of bank – backer’s stake £1InvisibleLayer
One final lay tonight
Kempton
6.50 Regal Veil
She had an easy time of it up front last time but should run her race even if not on the pace just think there are a couple horses open to a little bit more improvement at the current time, I actually think the drop back to 6 furlong will suit Run From Nun so that could run into a place, Note Perfect has to prove he handles the polytrack but could be hard to beat with him likley to try and make all tonight, Hadden Frost takes a useful 5lb off the Kirk runner
Good luck, its always good to see people putting up selections, the betting side of racing is the part I enjoy most so its never boring. Discussing bets may sometimes draw peoples attentions to things they havent thought about or overlooked, and I tend to pick up little bits all the time. Ive always been on the backing side of the fence though, but its all good fun…
Yes all good fun but no fun looking at the card at Towcester
Just the two lay’s for me
Southwell
2.00 Kennington 8/1
3.30 Earl Compton 10/1The two horse’s I can readily discount for win purposes, Kennigton will have it all to do drawn the stands side in this field, I like the look of Brut who I once had a little interest in he’s well berthed for his fiery speed and has a mark David Barker would surly expect him to win one or two before the flat season kicks in, Egyption Lord is also on a nice mark due to some disappointing efforts the blinkers that have been reapplied recently may of rekindled him somewhat and the fibresand has been happy hunting ground for him in the past, Savile´s Delight is going really well now and he should win his race down the stands side. Earl Compton has not been given a competitive weight in this Claimer, six furlongs stretches him on the polytrack so this won’t suit him in the slightest on the fibresand.
A race I’ve spent overly too much time looking at is the 3.30 at Southwell as I’d like to lay Cape Of Storms put in at 11/8 but their are too many "if’s" and "but’s" about his rivals for comfort, I’ve learnt in the past to just leave these races alone, one horse I do like in the race which could go off a big price is the unexposed Frisbee who could sneak a place.
Earl Compton was a non runner, I actually missed the Frisbee race but it finished 2nd at 16/1 not backed e/w by me
Not looked at the remaining NH card as I doubt it will be on as it’s sure freezing down here in Uttoxeter, gas bill will be going through the roof
Lingfield
1.55 Trees Of Green 11/4
3.00 Mr Cellophane 4/1[/color:397hby1t]Trees Of Green was an ex Godolphin who showed plenty of promise over a few early outing’s but it came apparent through his running style all’s not well mentally towards the end of the season and he proved costly to follow for backers, normally as a rule I keep away from horses trained by the like’s of Wigham/Curley/Martin but I feel this horse will still be worth taking on – hopefully the money will come and give us layers a shorter price to get him at, he has the form to win this if he’s sweetend up but these are the kind of horses I like when I’m laying, one that stands out a big price in this race is Carry On Cleo who looks a good for each way theif’s forcasted at 20/1, Cleo faced a tough ask a couple of day’s ago and could go well in this. Mr Cellophane is a typical ‘placepotter’ horse which has plenty of placed efforts to his name but finds winning hard, he won’t want to fight it out and it would take an ellecent ride from Jim Crowley to persuade him he looks on a fair mark and that may tempt the backer’s in to keep him short enough.
I think at the end of the day I’ll update on the odds I bet and profit/loss on each excluding commision to keep it simple.
Goodnight and be lucky if your lining up a punt or two
Well Trees of Green was another non runner
Mr Cellophane 100/30 (SP) 4.5 (my odds matched at) £6 (stake)
Today’s Profit £5.73[/color:1xf3crvg]
Total running Profit/Loss from 14/02/08 £83.79[/color:1xf3crvg] (after commission)My lay’s today
Southwell
2.40 Orange Square 4/1
4.10 Foursquare Flyer 14/1
4.40 Dudley Docker 11/4[/color:3kz6acia]Have taken on Orange Square on quite a few times recently and I will do again even after what could be a little confidence booster in it’s last race at Wolverhampton, he seem’s to travel well and would of won a few more races if his wayward tenancies were ironed out, I think the fibresand will ask more questions of mentally as well so I have to be a layer again. Foursquare Flyer comes from the John Mackie yard which a currently have a little interest in a horse called Sunbolt, it also has to prove itself on the fibresand and I’m not convinced it will be his best in time and the alarm bell’s are ringing as to a first time tongue tie being used on the surface, a few runs over jumps may have brought him on from his spell on the sideline’s due to an injury but there’s been plenty of money this morning and I’m happy to lay at around 5/1 as I think he should be double the price……..watch this bolt in now at a shorter price
. Dudley Docker’s wins have all come in field’s of ten or more and I think a tactical race of just five going to post is in the layers favor, saying that all five runners have a quirk or two about them with Silver Hotspur resenting the whip and Memphis Man often walking out the stalls, I do like the look of Memphis Man and he will be finishing well but I also think Cornus will enjoy in up front today.Off to bed – I work the long night’s
InvisibleLayer
Well Foursquare went off shorter and so did Dudley Docker which would of come in my below 3.5 lay price bracket but with me working night’s I placed them before I went to bed,
My Odd’s matched in bracket’s
2.40 Orange Square 4/1 (5.0) £6
4.10 Foursquare Flyer 10/3 (5.9) £6
4.40 Dudley Docker 9/4 (4.0) £6Today’s P/L £17.19[/color:jh2fgtoz]
Total running P/L £100.98[/color:jh2fgtoz]Today’s Lay’s as follows
Lingfield
1.50 Now You See Me 8/1
2.25 Musical Script 5/1[/color:3ls55sid]Punchestown
2.00 Wonderkid 14/1[/color:3ls55sid]Kempton
6.50 Only If I Laugh 5/1[/color:3ls55sid]
The drop to five furlong won’t harm Now You See Me but will be outclassed by the favorate here with Night Prospecter no back number too, also think Stoneacre Gareth will finish in font of my selection.
Musical Script in a nutshell is disappointing but should run his race under strong riding, look’s held by Mambazo on recent Kempton running.
Wonderkid come’s from the layer’s worst nightmare Tony Martin yard
I fancy this horse in the upcoming cross country race at the festival on better ground than today’s, this look’s a nice prep run over a short trip than ideal……will I learn My lesson with this yard today Only If I Laugh I think would run much better if up with the pace but that look’s unlikely with a poor draw, continue’s in banded and seriously doubt the long losing run will end tonight.
I have also paid Hollow Joe close scrutiny in the 6.20 it has a plum draw to try and make all but I would be willing to take him on if that was the case as he’s I feel he’s much better coming off the pace, the yard’s in form and last time there was decent money for it it was held up, could be lined up for this tonight so passing it over as I would be surprised if they do go with the pace
Glad I left Hollow Jo alone for the reason’s stated, a loss for today but I’m happy with how thing’s are going at present – it’s a marathon not a sprint
1.50 Now You See Me 9/1 11.0 £4
2.00 Wonderkid 14/1 30.0 £1
2.25 Musical Script 5/1 7.0 £-36
6.50 Only If I Laugh 13/2 7.2 £6Today’s P/L £-25.50[/color:my0s63ep]
Running P/L £75.48[/color:my0s63ep]Late addition to today’s lay’s, Sir Mark Prescott’s Tiapia[/color:3en1q0s4] in the 9.20 at Kempton, up in trip but no good thing IMO, may improve a little but we have a nice enough looking field running for us, will be looking to lay under 6.0 or no bet so will check the market at work.
Feel I have got lucky a little with the Prescott horse, I used to take our pay as you go mobile to work to use Betfair Mobile without any problems but I have a HTC Touch now to use the Betdaq site and took my usual vantage point and to my initial annoyance I could not even get reception……………well got home and it won at 11/4 I would of been more than happy too lay at them odd’s so I’ve escaped with a slap on the wrist yesterday
Well it’s a week since I started this and I’m more than happy to take £75.48 as I would be happy with just half of that really, I never go into a day hoping to take x amount I just try and get thing’s right with my form study. Got plenty of time on my side today as my two kids are off school today due to flu and Mrs Invisible has to go to work until 4 so I’ll probably have tomorrow off the laptop to catch up on some zzzzzzzzz
Today’s Lay’s
Ayr
3.10 Lethem Air 8/1
4.15 Cash Bonanza 15/2[/color:1xx7avjd]Huntingdon
1.50 Fiddling Again 7/2[/color:1xx7avjd]
2.50 Royal Darling 3/1[/color:1xx7avjd]Southwell
2.00 Premier Yank 9/4[/color:1xx7avjd]
3.00 Coleorton Dancer 5/1[/color:1xx7avjd]Got my hand’s full so unable to go into much detail for my lay’s today, will have another in depth look on the all weather. Premier Yank finished well at Lingfield latest but these horse’s alway’s seem overbet and it sure won’t be easy at Southwell if he gets himself behind today, willing to take on at the likely short odd’s
I like to hear people view’s wether you back or lay.
. Dudley Docker’s wins have all come in field’s of ten or more and I think a tactical race of just five going to post is in the layers favor, saying that all five runners have a quirk or two about them with Silver Hotspur resenting the whip and Memphis Man often walking out the stalls, I do like the look of Memphis Man and he will be finishing well but I also think Cornus will enjoy in up front today.
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