- This topic has 650 replies, 50 voices, and was last updated 9 years, 4 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>mickeyjp wrote:</div>
I wonder if coolmore wished they had entered highland reel in the Derby. Cracking run in the French derby and looks like a decent bet. The eclipse will probably be the next run.He ran a lot better today but I suspect that race lacked a bit depth today. Having said that, I’d rather have him pitching for me than Hans Holbein and Kilimanjaro, who lack speed and form to my eyes. The stats are strongly against them based on their ratings coming into the race.
I read an article that showed that 10 out the last 11 Derby winners had a Racing Post rating of at least 119 coming into the Derby. Only Gleneagles on 123 and Golden Horn on 122 meet that stat, although Elm Park, Jack Hobbs and Zawraq are probably about that level, if not quite there yet. Zawraq and Jack Hobbs have more scope with less runs under their belt. Hans Holbein and Kilimanjaro are a good way short on 108 and 107 ratings.
I think I’d send my 123 rated horse in to bat come Saturday than trust one of the others to find a stone on faster ground.
This stat is incorrect. Pour Moi, Workforce and Ruler of the World were all rated less than 119 by the Racing Post coming into the Derby.
O’Brien and trials are not always to be taken on face value. Aiden likes his horses to find their own feet and I’d expect Giovanni Canaletto to improve for that outing. If he can improve enough to win the Derby I’m not sure and wouldn’t bet on it but I wouldn’t bet against it either.
Blackbeard to conquer the World
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>stevecaution wrote:</div>
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>mickeyjp wrote:</div>
I wonder if coolmore wished they had entered highland reel in the Derby. Cracking run in the French derby and looks like a decent bet. The eclipse will probably be the next run.He ran a lot better today but I suspect that race lacked a bit depth today. Having said that, I’d rather have him pitching for me than Hans Holbein and Kilimanjaro, who lack speed and form to my eyes. The stats are strongly against them based on their ratings coming into the race.
I read an article that showed that 10 out the last 11 Derby winners had a Racing Post rating of at least 119 coming into the Derby. Only Gleneagles on 123 and Golden Horn on 122 meet that stat, although Elm Park, Jack Hobbs and Zawraq are probably about that level, if not quite there yet. Zawraq and Jack Hobbs have more scope with less runs under their belt. Hans Holbein and Kilimanjaro are a good way short on 108 and 107 ratings.
I think I’d send my 123 rated horse in to bat come Saturday than trust one of the others to find a stone on faster ground.
This stat is incorrect. Pour Moi, Workforce and Ruler of the World were all rated less than 119 by the Racing Post coming into the Derby.
Others include Sinndar, Oath, High Rise, Shaamit, Lammtarra and Benny the Dip. All rated less than 119 by the Racing Post prior to their Derby run.
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>stevecaution wrote:</div>
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>mickeyjp wrote:</div>
I wonder if coolmore wished they had entered highland reel in the Derby. Cracking run in the French derby and looks like a decent bet. The eclipse will probably be the next run.He ran a lot better today but I suspect that race lacked a bit depth today. Having said that, I’d rather have him pitching for me than Hans Holbein and Kilimanjaro, who lack speed and form to my eyes. The stats are strongly against them based on their ratings coming into the race.
I read an article that showed that 10 out the last 11 Derby winners had a Racing Post rating of at least 119 coming into the Derby. Only Gleneagles on 123 and Golden Horn on 122 meet that stat, although Elm Park, Jack Hobbs and Zawraq are probably about that level, if not quite there yet. Zawraq and Jack Hobbs have more scope with less runs under their belt. Hans Holbein and Kilimanjaro are a good way short on 108 and 107 ratings.
I think I’d send my 123 rated horse in to bat come Saturday than trust one of the others to find a stone on faster ground.
This stat is incorrect. Pour Moi, Workforce and Ruler of the World were all rated less than 119 by the Racing Post coming into the Derby.
Sorry but I had no way of checking through them all. It was put up as gospel on the Derby preview guide I was looking at. Obviously whoever compiled the article was a bit lacking in their homework. I have been noticing that quite a bit recently and At The Races are not to be trusted implicitly by any means.
There has been a trend for article headlines to intimate a certain aspect of a horse’s chance but when you go in an read the piece the trainer has been no where near as bullish as the headline seemed to suggest. A recent example was Limato and Henry Candy being very sweet on his chance, however he was neutral at best when you read the text. I am assuming the pun element is inspiring some of these ahead of actually forming a precis of the item.
Anyway, apologies for quoting some numpty who can’t count to 120.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I think these are right.
Best RPR before Derby
2014 Australia 122
2013 Ruler Of The World 113
2012 Camelot 123
2011 Pour Moi 113
2010 Workforce 111
2009 Sea the Stars 123
2008 New Approach 125
2007 Authorized 121
2006 Sir Percy 120
2005 Motivator 119
2004 North Light 120
2003 Kris Kin 119
2002 High Chaparral 119
2001 Galileo 119
2000 Sinndar 115Re the chances of Giovanni Canaletto on Saturday.
Derby winners can do a lot of different things in their trials…win, lose, surprise, disappoint, delight.
One thing they just about never do though is get beaten by a filly.Stats are made to be broken. No horse has won the Arc three years in a row, do we put a line through
TREVE. No horse had won the Queen Anne without a prep run for 4 million years until Toronado wiped the floor with them.Blackbeard to conquer the World
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>The Ante-Post King wrote:</div>
What you are basically saying Steve is you think Giovanni Canaletto has no chance of winning the Derby?
I just don’t think the form is there at all Gord. I would agree that Ryan Moore will probably pick him but looking at Hans Holbein and Kilimanjaro I would have thought any craft that looked like it wouldn’t be best served by having a sail fitted, would seem a preferable option.
You make valid points Steve but you certainly dont see the horse I see in Giovanni Canaletto.My interpretation of this horse is simple…He was bred to win the Derby!..Its well documented that he’s a slow learner,I saw that at Navan last October when he made his debut,he was being rousted along after running barely 4f of the 1m race but for every effort made by Joseph this fellow responded and finished 3rd.Barely a fortnight later he re-appears at Leopardstown and again he’s running lazily and looking around but the penny dropped and he scooted clear easily.I decided then this fellow was a Derby horse and backed him at 25/1.8 months later we finally got to see how much this fellow had developed over the winter and many believe he hasn’t improved at all.What I saw in the ‘Gallinule’ a race whose record of throwing up Derby winners doesn’t exist was a horse who again was raw and desperately in need of getting the fizz out of him,Ryan Moore didn’t know the horse but he learnt a lot that day and lesson 1 is ‘Giovanni’ needs at least 11/2m,if he’s running on for 3rd place on Saturday he wins the St leger and like you I have taken 20/1 for that race but what I’m hoping for is the same inprovement he made in such a short time last year and if he has then when he hits the 2f pole this time he’ll take off.I’ll be amazed if Ryans not on him.
Stats are made to be broken. No horse has won the Arc three years in a row, do we put a line through
TREVE. No horse had won the Queen Anne without a prep run for 4 million years until Toronado wiped the floor with them.Toronado was odds on though Nathan and Treve hasn’t defied the stat yet. Anyone who laid Toronado at 4/5 didn’t exactly fall to his knees crying that the stat had finally let him down and he was paying out for the first time after 4 million years of making hay on it.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Foaling date, quality of dam and track at which debut was made trends dictate that Epicuris, Rogue Runner or Storm the Stars will win.
The mere fact that Haggas is running Storm the Stars could be a big tip in itself. Problem for his running style is that Epicuris will presumably take him on for the lead.
I thought Best of Times ran far too close to the pace LTO. IMO should be completely dropped out and come with a late flourish.
Honestly though I can’t see any of those 3 winning based on what they’ve done, and I strongly suspect StS only runs because he’s owned by an Arab. I think this is a really bad Derby. Lay the winner NTO.
I think Elm Park is becoming something of a forgotten horse for the Derby.
It’s pretty safe to say that this looks a poor renewal. With exception to Golden Horn, nothing has really cemented itself as a strong contender from the trials.
Yet Elm Park is similar price now to what it was after the Racing Post trophy last season. It’s only ran once since and ran a decent enough race after being keen early on. Epsom may not be ideal course, but I think this is levelled out by being such a poor renewal this year.
Golden Horn has looked good but can’t help thinking it’s an after thought and taken everyone by surprise.
Zawraq have to respect, though not too sure it will stay.
Jack Hobbs I just can’t really have as a Derby winner.
Hans Holbein has claims without being too impressive at Chester.
Storm the Stars I can see running really well without winning.
Giovanni Cannelto is difficult to weigh up.Elm Park has the best 2YO form on offer, should appreciate the rain around this week. Looks like a horse who should get the trip and has the assistance of one of the top three jockeys in England imo. It has to go very close providing it handles the camber.
I haven’t been keeping up with this thread (or indeed this forum) for some time so apologies if I’m repeating anything.
If there’s one ‘aspect’ of form study I can’t quite get my head around it’s the ‘stats’ approach. Most of the time they are (un)fortunate coincidences. Often you’ll hear the ‘stats’ people say something like “8 of the last 10 winners have…”, etc.
So what? It means two of them (one in five) haven’t. And what kind of solid basis is 10 years?
Here are some stats that matter, in my opinion.
The Derby is nearly always won by the best horse at the trip and on the going on the day.
Some horses that ultimately prove better at shorter can still win the Derby if their superiority is sufficient to offset a slight inconvenience at the trip.
I reckon those are the only two stats that matter.
As I said earlier, I’ve got Hans Holbein ew at 66/1. I laid off the win portion at 11/1. If I can lay off the place portion at about evens I’ll do that. I’m happy with that bet but it doesn’t mean HH will win. What he will do is stay. The question for me is how many better horses will be in the race and will stay?
Golden Horn? Better, yes. Stay, might but can’t see it myself. Might just be superior enough to beat HH but I’m doubtful.
Zawraq? Ditto.
Giovanni Canaletto? Not so far and not so sure but I took longer odds a couple of weeks back. If Moore opts for him his price will collapse and I can lay him off.
Jack Hobbs? Almost certainly and certainly. I was very taken by the video footage of his racecourse gallop. He looked to have grown up mentally for his race at York. Right now he strikes me as the most likely winner.
Elm Park? Doubtful and doubtful.
I see no reason why Storm The Stars or Best Of Times should reverse Chester form with HH.
The dark hose is Epicuris, who is probably overpriced at the moment. I suspect the French form is quite good but stamina evidence is inconclusive. However, he is trained by a genius who might well have more insight into his form and stamina and it’s hard to imagine her bypassing Chantilly for this without solid reason. I might take some of the 25/1 but that’s down to faith in the trainer rather than in the horse.
At this point, I do think Jack Hobbs – declared doubtful after the Dante so off the radar since then – is the most likely winner but it is as poor a renewal as I can remember.
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>Bobby Bluebell wrote:</div>
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>stevecaution wrote:</div>
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>mickeyjp wrote:</div>
I wonder if coolmore wished they had entered highland reel in the Derby. Cracking run in the French derby and looks like a decent bet. The eclipse will probably be the next run.He ran a lot better today but I suspect that race lacked a bit depth today. Having said that, I’d rather have him pitching for me than Hans Holbein and Kilimanjaro, who lack speed and form to my eyes. The stats are strongly against them based on their ratings coming into the race.
I read an article that showed that 10 out the last 11 Derby winners had a Racing Post rating of at least 119 coming into the Derby. Only Gleneagles on 123 and Golden Horn on 122 meet that stat, although Elm Park, Jack Hobbs and Zawraq are probably about that level, if not quite there yet. Zawraq and Jack Hobbs have more scope with less runs under their belt. Hans Holbein and Kilimanjaro are a good way short on 108 and 107 ratings.
I think I’d send my 123 rated horse in to bat come Saturday than trust one of the others to find a stone on faster ground.
This stat is incorrect. Pour Moi, Workforce and Ruler of the World were all rated less than 119 by the Racing Post coming into the Derby.
Sorry but I had no way of checking through them all. It was put up as gospel on the Derby preview guide I was looking at. Obviously whoever compiled the article was a bit lacking in their homework. I have been noticing that quite a bit recently and At The Races are not to be trusted implicitly by any means.
There has been a trend for article headlines to intimate a certain aspect of a horse’s chance but when you go in an read the piece the trainer has been no where near as bullish as the headline seemed to suggest. A recent example was Limato and Henry Candy being very sweet on his chance, however he was neutral at best when you read the text. I am assuming the pun element is inspiring some of these ahead of actually forming a precis of the item.
Anyway, apologies for quoting some numpty who can’t count to 120.
I found this particularly terrible example of a complete lack of even the most passing research today: http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/article/465/9872556/the-insider-ante-post-betting-preview-of-the-investec-oaks
In this he states that “Her manner of victory bore some similarity to that of Blue Bunting – the last Newmarket heroine to double up at Epsom”
Blue Bunting didn’t win the oaks, she finished fourth behind Dancing Rain.
Shocking.
I haven’t been keeping up with this thread (or indeed this forum) for some time so apologies if I’m repeating anything.
If there’s one ‘aspect’ of form study I can’t quite get my head around it’s the ‘stats’ approach. Most of the time they are (un)fortunate coincidences. Often you’ll hear the ‘stats’ people say something like “8 of the last 10 winners have…”, etc.
So what? It means two of them (one in five) haven’t. And what kind of solid basis is 10 years?
The dark hose is Epicuris, who is probably overpriced at the moment. I suspect the French form is quite good but stamina evidence is inconclusive. However, he is trained by a genius who might well have more insight into his form and stamina and it’s hard to imagine her bypassing Chantilly for this without solid reason. I might take some of the 25/1 but that’s down to faith in the trainer rather than in the horse.
At this point, I do think Jack Hobbs – declared doubtful after the Dante so off the radar since then – is the most likely winner but it is as poor a renewal as I can remember.
I’m not really a stats or trends man myself. Much of the time the connection is spurious. The one stat that I do like is how good the horse is going into the race.
The Derby comes early enough in the season and the slower developing types are at a disadvantage in my mind. There are a few runners in the mix who need about a stone of improvement to be involved and while it’s far from impossible by season’s end that they will have caught up, it’s a tough ask to find enough in a few weeks since their last run.
Just a footnote on Epicuris. He’s a bit of a red herring here. The horse has problems going into the stalls and needs his “shrink” with him in order to go in. They could not get permission for the behaviour expert to be with him to help load him at Chantilly and that is the only reason he runs here instead of the French Derby last Sunday.
Epicuris looked slow the day he was beaten by Silverwave on his reappearance. Silverwave was unbeaten at the time but he did win with a good bit of authority. Silverwave did run in the French Derby and he was backed in from 6/1 to 9/2 but he found very little when asked for his effort and steadily faded back to finish 9th of the 14 runners. Not very encouraging for Epicuris.
Epicuris has all his best form on the very/soft and heavy ground. It was heavy when he was beaten four lengths by Silverwave, so no real excuse for his odd-on defeat that day. I can’t think of any reason other than the trainer to be enthused about his chance. Even with his psychiatrist down at the start with him, will he load into the stalls in the furnace atmosphere of Derby Day? Will he handle the track, will the ground be too fast, is he anywhere near good enough?
Epicuris is a group 1 winner but it was on the 8th of November on bottomless ground. Even Silviniaco Conti would have been gasping for air that day. Three of the colts who ran that day haven’t been seen again, the other three have all been beaten since. Clonard Street the most recently, tailed back a disappointing 6th or 7 behind Curvy, who beat Giovanni Canaletto.
Epicuris at 16/1 for the Derby is absolutely appalling value, even at 25/1 he’s of no appeal to me. I am not kidding when I say I wouldn’t take 100/1 on him.
Jack Hobbs is a good each-way shout and I thought he was the value after the Dante to at least place in the race. I think he’ll beat Elm Park further this time but I can’t see him turning it around with Golden Horn. I feel the dodgy stayer will quicken past time and it would not be a shock if they are first and second.
After Frankie’s reversal on whether Star Of Seville idled or tired and subsequent switch to Jazzi Top, he seems to be cracking up again going into the Derby. After picking the wrong horse in the Dante, he seems to be paranoid now that Jack Hobbs will reverse it. He is also “wary” of the Godolphin team, despite it looking one of the poorest assembled in years. I hope this lack of confidence doesn’t transfer to the horse.
Get a grip on yourself Frankie and ride it like you are on the best horse in the race, in all probability you are!
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
TAPK is single handedly forcing the Bookmakers to slash the odds of this years Derby Winner,yesterday I took all the 16/1,today its the 12/1 NRNB.This fellow goes off single figures on saturday like I’ve already stated so any double figure price has to be taken e/w of course.The Giovanni Canaletto train is seriously rolling now and I’m Casey Jones!
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>Maurice wrote:</div>
I haven’t been keeping up with this thread (or indeed this forum) for some time so apologies if I’m repeating anything.If there’s one ‘aspect’ of form study I can’t quite get my head around it’s the ‘stats’ approach. Most of the time they are (un)fortunate coincidences. Often you’ll hear the ‘stats’ people say something like “8 of the last 10 winners have…”, etc.
So what? It means two of them (one in five) haven’t. And what kind of solid basis is 10 years?
The dark hose is Epicuris, who is probably overpriced at the moment. I suspect the French form is quite good but stamina evidence is inconclusive. However, he is trained by a genius who might well have more insight into his form and stamina and it’s hard to imagine her bypassing Chantilly for this without solid reason. I might take some of the 25/1 but that’s down to faith in the trainer rather than in the horse.
At this point, I do think Jack Hobbs – declared doubtful after the Dante so off the radar since then – is the most likely winner but it is as poor a renewal as I can remember.
I’m not really a stats or trends man myself. Much of the time the connection is spurious. The one stat that I do like is how good the horse is going into the race.
The Derby comes early enough in the season and the slower developing types are at a disadvantage in my mind. There are a few runners in the mix who need about a stone of improvement to be involved and while it’s far from impossible by season’s end that they will have caught up, it’s a tough ask to find enough in a few weeks since their last run.
Just a footnote on Epicuris. He’s a bit of a red herring here. The horse has problems going into the stalls and needs his “shrink” with him in order to go in. They could not get permission for the behaviour expert to be with him to help load him at Chantilly and that is the only reason he runs here instead of the French Derby last Sunday.
Epicuris looked slow the day he was beaten by Silverwave on his reappearance. Silverwave was unbeaten at the time but he did win with a good bit of authority. Silverwave did run in the French Derby and he was backed in from 6/1 to 9/2 but he found very little when asked for his effort and steadily faded back to finish 9th of the 14 runners. Not very encouraging for Epicuris.
Epicuris has all his best form on the very/soft and heavy ground. It was heavy when he was beaten four lengths by Silverwave, so no real excuse for his odd-on defeat that day. I can’t think of any reason other than the trainer to be enthused about his chance. Even with his psychiatrist down at the start with him, will he load into the stalls in the furnace atmosphere of Derby Day? Will he handle the track, will the ground be too fast, is he anywhere near good enough?
Epicuris is a group 1 winner but it was on the 8th of November on bottomless ground. Even Silviniaco Conti would have been gasping for air that day. Three of the colts who ran that day haven’t been seen again, the other three have all been beaten since. Clonard Street the most recently, tailed back a disappointing 6th or 7 behind Curvy, who beat Giovanni Canaletto.
Epicuris at 16/1 for the Derby is absolutely appalling value, even at 25/1 he’s of no appeal to me. I am not kidding when I say I wouldn’t take 100/1 on him.
Jack Hobbs is a good each-way shout and I thought he was the value after the Dante to at least place in the race. I think he’ll beat Elm Park further this time but I can’t see him turning it around with Golden Horn. I feel the dodgy stayer will quicken past time and it would not be a shock if they are first and second.
After Frankie’s reversal on whether Star Of Seville idled or tired and subsequent switch to Jazzi Top, he seems to be cracking up again going into the Derby. After picking the wrong horse in the Dante, he seems to be paranoid now that Jack Hobbs will reverse it. He is also “wary” of the Godolphin team, despite it looking one of the poorest assembled in years. I hope this lack of confidence doesn’t transfer to the horse.
Get a grip on yourself Frankie and ride it like you are on the best horse in the race, in all probability you are!lol
I can just imagine him sitting there in a darkened room, if Star of Seville wins the Oaks and Jack Hobbs beats him into second in the Derby, shaking his head and saying “I knew it, I knew it would happen to me…”
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.