- This topic has 208 replies, 33 voices, and was last updated 9 years, 3 months ago by
.
- Posts
The lounge is abundant with knowledgeable people Ginge, as is the horse racing.
Drone is a panthiest, and is a legend for his writing skills and phillosophical points.
Ostermeyer added a touch of credibility to the place, being a reformed Thatcherite and all.
Ugly Mare knows what men like (though she is taken
)When Bulwark first joined this place he was being told to proof all his bets on the daily lays and plays section or take the anti – post bets for Cheltenham off his signature, look at how he’s learned and is not only writing/communiting well but also informing members of his opinions on racing………….
Sorry i’ll shut up now……..
Totally agree with you Marble, the people you quote are in the "many many more" I spoke of. It is a very knowledgable forum.
Mark
Value Is EverythingWith regard to understanding, hang on a minute, let me just go check a piece of paper, ah yes thought so . It says 1st Class Degree in Mathematics! So I beg to differ but I think I do
Careful Caledon, dont get too big for your boots. Its a fine line between being regarded as a thoughtful and intelligent man and just being regarded as a pleb!
You are fighting your corner but until you actually reveal your system then you have to accept that you will be questioned. And therefore you will always be questioned.
As others have said you are not really offering "Racing" opinions. The buzz of racing had me long before the buzz of betting on racing!
Hi, i also gamble for a living although not through horseracing but internet poker. I’m too impulsive at horseracing to ever make a long term profit because im a bit of an action junky and find myself betting on to many races. Goodluck with your comeback anyway.
I’ve found this a really interesting thread. Ginge – I truly believe it is possible to find a way of backing horses profitably that has nothing to do with knowledge of form.
Let’s accept for a moment that horses in general are overbet ie if you back the favourite in every race then it is a well known fact that you will lose money because favourites simply don’t win often enough.
You can work out statistically the percentage chance of any favourite winning by dividing the number of winning favourites by the total number of races run eg if there are 100 races and the favourite wins 50 of those races then statistically any favourite has a 50% chance of winning. If you could back every favourite at bigger than even money in those circumstances then you would make a profit. You don’t need to have a knowledge of form to back those horses. All you need to know is the statistical chance of any favourite winning and the price at which that winning percentage will turn a profit.
Obviously a system of just backing favourite cannot work because too many win at a price that is too short to cover the bets on the losing favourites.
What if you discovered however that favourites that start at 4/1 actually win more than 20% of the time? You could back all those favourites blind and turn a profit.
I’ve probably given some poor examples but I’m sure that it is a feature of the way races are priced up that horse are in certain circumstances, on average, underpriced and others are, on average, overpriced. If you could discover which ones are, on average, overpriced (or if you prefer underestimated) then you can back every one of those horses and you will make a profit.
Because betting markets are formed based on subjective opinions I’m sure the markets are affected by the weakness of the human brain in attaching too much (or too little) importance to certain facts.
I believe that Caledon is able to take advantage of a feature of the pricing up of races that stems from this weakness.
The problem for the rest of us is a matter of where to start in discovering this feature.
Careful Caledon, dont get too big for your boots. Its a fine line between being regarded as a thoughtful and intelligent man and just being regarded as a pleb!
Sorry about that but all I meant was that the person questioning my knowledge relies on his holy grail of FORM and is insistent that he knows what he is talking about, I, on the other hand, rely on my holy grail of MATHEMATICS, and, with a degree in the subject, think I know my subject.
You are fighting your corner but until you actually reveal your system then you have to accept that you will be questioned. And therefore you will always be questioned.
I have no objection to questioning but I sometimes the answer you get is in the way you ask the question
As others have said you are not really offering "Racing" opinions. The buzz of racing had me long before the buzz of betting on racing!
I’m afraid I don’t really have any "Racing" opinions in the way others do here. Does that mean I am not welcome?
I’ve found this a really interesting thread. Ginge – I truly believe it is possible to find a way of backing horses profitably that has nothing to do with knowledge of form.
Because betting markets are formed based on subjective opinions I’m sure the markets are affected by the weakness of the human brain in attaching too much (or too little) importance to certain facts.
I believe that Caledon is able to take advantage of a feature of the pricing up of races that stems from this weakness.
The problem for the rest of us is a matter of where to start in discovering this feature.
Tuffers, you are so close to breaking away from the mould and starting to look for the TRUE answer it’s uncanny. Are you sure you don’t do the same as me and strining me along
To all who read this thread and are vaguely interested in how I do things I will give a starting point in order that I cannot be accused of not "revealing" my method anymore
Start with the most important variables that occur each day:
Race Type / Race Course
If you can’t see the significance of these straight away don’t panic, just keep thinking!
If you have access to something like RSB then play wih these two variables and make notes on some of the statistics you get, see if you can spot any Trend or Pattern or whatever you would call it.
Tuffers, you are so close to breaking away from the mould and starting to look for the TRUE answer it’s uncanny. Are you sure you don’t do the same as me and strining me along
I believe the same principles can be applied to SM trading
To all who read this thread and are vaguely interested in how I do things I will give a starting point in order that I cannot be accused of not "revealing" my method anymore
Start with the most important variables that occur each day:
Race Type / Race Course
If you can’t see the significance of these straight away don’t panic, just keep thinking!
If you have access to something like RSB then play wih these two variables and make notes on some of the statistics you get, see if you can spot any Trend or Pattern or whatever you would call it.
To make crunching the numbers easier you might find this link useful:
Caledon is certainly very clever and I welcome his presence here. I’m not clever enough myself to know whether this is just a fishing/wind-up thread ,or, whether, as he says, he would just like a bit of chat about the gambling game, in order to break the boredom and loneliness of being a pro-punter.
What I can say, with absolute certainty, is that there are definitely some professional punters who use this forum. In fact, one well-know guy has taken so much flak from the the usual suspects here, that he threatened to stop posting at one stage.
On the other hand, there seems to be several who think they are an authority on almost every subject, yet, in my humble opinion, may not be quite as clever as they think.
Anyway, I hope you continue to post, as I find the subject very interesting. Btw, I think Tuffers is probably one of the switched-on posters here, though I’m judging only by what I see on this forum.
All the best with your come-back!
On the other hand, there seems to be several who think they are an authority on almost every subject, yet, in my humble opinion, may not be quite as clever as they think.
Signing in!
I’ve just crunched a few numbers so far but here is a rule that would have made a profit for you in each of the last five years:
Back the favourite in all Chester maidens run over 7f
That would have produced a strike rate of 78.3% and a return of 176%
Sean Rua wrote:……..one well-know guy has taken so much flak from the the usual suspects here, that he threatened to stop posting at one stage.
Rest assured, Sean, I have no intention of stopping. My ego demands that I continue regardless.
Sean Rua wrote of Caledon: ……in order to break the boredom and loneliness of being a pro-punter.
…and living in that sheltered accomodation in Biggleswick must get him down from time to time.
But Caledon, apart from the bingo question, is it your eventual intention to respond to my more relevant questions on Page Six, please, or have I got you clean bowled with one of my googlies, perhaps?
Thanks
KenBut Caledon, apart from the bingo question, is it your eventual intention to respond to my more relevant questions on Page Six, please, or have I got you clean bowled with one of my googlies, perhaps?
Hi Ken,
Maybe you are right about me being and old bingo playing lady living in sheltered accomodation cause don’t ask me how but I managed to miss most of page six. So apologies for my senility
The first day ended with no selection so I spent the rest of the day messing around with Bet Angel. What a tool, wish I had had this in my last spell. I doubt I would be back because I would be so RICH!!!!!
Anyway, I digress, think its those pills
Man I am in a cheery mood today, again it’s probably the pills lolI would not try and backfit my method to any other sport and would prefer to treat each as a new subject. But in short I have never looked at it.
The method could be explained and learned in approx 10 minutes I guess and anyone with a brain could use it. I have no intention of marketing it. I did think of giving it away at one point and letting the recipients pay me a commission/royalty from their winnings but I trust people too much and would probably find nothing coming back and the system for sale from someone less scrupulous. So for now I will keep it to myself.
Once again, apologies for missing your questions… forgive an oldy lady
Thanks Cal, I appreciate your honesty…..
As far as you wrote: Man I am in a cheery mood today, again it’s probably the pills
I blame the nurses.
Have a good day. I’m off. Catch up with you again.
Ken
)
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.