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I’m not too sure it isn’t a little impolite of us to be questioning Caledon’s system in too much detail. After all, he is a new member and we don’t want to scare him off. If I had a golden formula, I doubt whether I’d be keen to reveal it publicly.
I imagine Caledon’s lying in his sun lounger in the Bahamas having a wee
chuckle to himself.
If there is a ‘set in concrete’ approach, with no deviation, then I would have thought it would be straightforward designing a computer programme to place the bets as and when, leaving Caledon to continue soaking up the sun.Hi Ken,
I wouldn’t reveal what I do for any amount of money, not that I reckon it would drastically effect the markets if a few people knew. For all I know there may be someone or many doing what I do!Strange you should mention the "computer programme" I have re-thought the exchange comment I made after a little test run and have now purchased Bet Angel
this afternoon and spent a few hours programming the excel interface to do just that…. now I can do this anywhere in the world with a laptop and wireless connection… that Bahamas scenario sounds real tempting.
Hi Ken,
I wouldn’t reveal what I do for any amount of money, not that I reckon it would drastically effect the markets if a few people knew. For all I know there may be someone or many doing what I do!My initial reaction was Porn star…then I switched my brain on and figured you’d never be attempting a pro punting comeback if that was the case! Lol
Seriously though, I hope you do well and if nothing else you have the likes of Gerald, Tuffers, Ken (and me) scrambling to uncover your system!
I’m fairly sure that Caledon is doing something a bit more sophisticated, or using a bit more time up than my final suggestion.
Otherwise, as Ginge suggested, he would have carried on doing it during his ‘retirement’.
How about Dutching all the horses in turf Mdns that are in tail-male descent from Northern Dancer for instance? Put a different bet on in each bookie, and the buggers won’t have a clue what you’re doing.
Hi Tuffers,
Excellent idea… that’s exactly what I did… crunch numbers. I am delighted with the response so far and it looks like we have created at least one new system for everyone lol
Glad to see that at least some people are open to new ideas and are at least willing to throw the books in the corner for a moment and do some investigation without prejudices.
But seriously, thats all I do… "consistently take advantage of the facts" proven, no questions asked and the data is out there for anyone to find… but I reckon the chances of someone putting together a 1000 piece jigsaw exactly the same way I did are remote to say the least and not odds I would be interested in
You’ve obviously been prepared to invest a lot of time number cruncing so if you’re making it pay then good luck to you.
The big advantage of an approach like yours is it completely removes the subjectivity that dogs the punting decisions of the rest of us.
Obviously, I’m not expecting you to reveal your own system but I’d be interested to know what data source you used to crunch the numbers (if that doesn’t give too much away) and whether you used any proprietory software to do the crunching or something anyone can buy off the shelf.
The big advantage of an approach like yours is it completely removes the subjectivity that dogs the punting decisions of the rest of us.
Exactly… sometimes you just can’t see the wood for the trees
Obviously, I’m not expecting you to reveal your own system but I’d be interested to know what data source you used to crunch the numbers (if that doesn’t give too much away) and whether you used any proprietory software to do the crunching or something anyone can buy off the shelf.
Initially the person who asked me to do the work for him purchased 20 years of data from a source. I believe it was the Racing Post or maybe Timeform but don’t quote me. I designed an Excel Spreadsheet and did all my work from that. I have added to this with further data and continue to do this on a fairly regular basis to keep up to date. From there it was just a case of developing my own queries and getting results in a workable format.
I have looked at proprietory software, RSB springs to mind, but the queries allowed are too generic and tend to be exactly what a racing type person would look for. I have a copy and have yet to work out how to query my methods with it because I cant ask the questions I want.
I have purchased Bet Angel Pro this afternoon and it has an Excel interface so now I have set he method up to work automatically
I am an accountant, I like to deal in numbers and spreadsheets, but I just dont have the time to devote to such in depth analysis. Maybe I should use you as an example…there must be hundreds of potential winning formulae out there…patterns, statistics, etc…that if I devoted enough time too I could find one that works for me. As even with numbers, its still possible to see the same info in two different ways!
Anyway, last post for me on this thread, its all getting above my comprehension, lol!
Ginge, there are gamblers who don’t use form, there is more than one way to skin the cat as it is said.
tbracing,
There is more than one way to skin a cat if that cat’s name is Value.
But there is only one way to skin a cat called Profit, and that is to get value.
Caledon says he gets value but does not go by Form, I can’t see how that can be done. Form does not have to be the be all and end all; but even those who make a profit from primarily paddock judging refer to their form book sometimes.
Mark
Value Is Everything
- Total Posts 17716
There is more than one way to skin a cat if that cat’s name is Value.
But there is only one way to skin a cat called Profit, and that is to get value.
Caledon says he gets value but does not go by Form, I can’t see how that can be done. Form does not have to be the be all and end all; but even those who make a profit from primarily paddock judging refer to their form book sometimes.
Mark
And who made you God Almighty?
By all means view the world through your own blinkered perspective, but never confuse ignorance with omnipotence.Probability? Value? Ratings? Stats? load of Bollocks!!!
These thing were maybe a good idea 20 years ago before every horse race was televised.
You want to make money spend your spare time watching every race you can.
What a tool that is visual form at the flick of a switch!
Maths, System you can keep. Toss them in the bin and use or your eyes?
The form book may say A beat B last time at levels by 2 lengths he gets 7lbs today and he’s a snip.
Only your eyes speak the truth.
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Fist,You have just described what FORM is.
By looking at races and evaluating each race you have formed an opinion about each horse. Your own form book.
However, you can’t hold out much hope of analysing every race using only your own eyes. Unless you specialise by betting in a very small group. e.g. Two year old maidens. Even then there will be a few who have run in a Nursery; so you might have missed it.
A form book uses the eyes of other people you trust. Even if you watch every race, you can not hope to see how every horse behaved in the paddock.
I am not a slave to the form book, e.g. I believe Cityscape has a better chance of winning the 2000 G than my form book does. I used my own eyes.
If horse A beats horse B by 2 lengths at level weights, then the two reoppose two weeks later under identical conditions; I am more likely to back horse B.
Why?
Because the "form experts" will write off B and his chance is likely to be better than the betting implies (VALUE). Of course you Fist will probably be one of those "form experts" who have seen it with their own form book (eyes).Form is not just a matter of rating or how far one beat the other anyway. Form is temperament, distance, going, draw, jumping ability, held up or races prominently, sweats or gets on edge, jockeyship, trainer form, headgear and anything else relevant to a horses performance.
After studying a race you still have to look at whether any horse you consider betting is value or not. You don’t have to work out a 100% tissue if you don’t want to but you need an idea of value.
Mark
Value Is EverythingIf horse A beats horse B by 2 lengths at level weights, then the two reoppose two weeks later under identical conditions; I am more likely to back horse B.
Why?
Because the "form experts" will write off B and his chance is likely to be better than the betting implies (VALUE). Of course you Fist will probably be one of those "form experts" who have seen it with their own form book (eyes).Hi Mark,
This has absolutely nothing to do with, or has any effect on the simple probability of the outcome. It is pure speculation, an interpretation of form, that will always leave you scratching your head wondering what went wrong!Form is not just a matter of rating or how far one beat the other anyway. Form is temperament, distance, going, draw, jumping ability, held up or races prominently, sweats or gets on edge, jockeyship, trainer form, headgear and anything else relevant to a horses performance.
Oh Dear… more to needlessly concern yourself with!
After studying a race you still have to look at whether any horse you consider betting is value or not. You don’t have to work out a 100% tissue if you don’t want to but you need an idea of value.
Again, ask 100 people to give you a reason why they think something is "value" and you will likely get 78.4% different answers, This again has nothing to with the probable outcome and is very subjective.
If 100% books have nothing to do with probability then why have bookmakers odds compilers always do the same thing?
Racing is all about subjective opinion.
For Early Prices, an odds compiler will work out what chance he believes each horse has of winning the race, then adds a bookmakers mark up. I know to a certain degree he will take a look at exchange prices these days but the general way of doing things is the same.
A bookmaker does not know the definate probability of each horse, he can only take an educated view. As we punters do.
If an odds compiler believes a horse has a 20% chance, he adds 2% making 22%. 22% = 7/2 so he offers 7/2. If I believe it has a better than 22% chance I will back it. I don’t know that it has a better than 22% chance, neither does the odds compiler know it has a 20% chance. It is all subjective opinion, it is all about a punters opinion against a bookmakers. There is no programme or mathematics that can work out the definate value of each horse. It can not be done.
But any opinion on price that I have is my opinion on the probability. Anyone else can have their own opinion on the probability, but whether you use a mathematical formula to help work it out or not; it is still your opinion, not fact.
Mark
Value Is EverythingThere is more than one way to skin a cat if that cat’s name is Value.
But there is only one way to skin a cat called Profit, and that is to get value.
Caledon says he gets value but does not go by Form, I can’t see how that can be done. Form does not have to be the be all and end all; but even those who make a profit from primarily paddock judging refer to their form book sometimes.
Mark
And who made you God Almighty?
By all means view the world through your own blinkered perspective, but never confuse ignorance with omnipotence.Reet,
If you want to rely on luck then go ahead, you have your own blinkered view. If you believe you can make a profit over a long period of time without getting true value Reet, then it is you that is ignorant.
The only way you can make long term profit without true value is with a massive slice of luck, like Agnus Haddock.
I am not God, you are not God, there is No God.
Mark
Value Is EverythingAgain, ask 100 people to give you a reason why they think something is "value" and you will likely get 78.4% different answers, This again has nothing to with the probable outcome and is very subjective.
A lot, may be even most punters do not understand true value anyway so those 100 will give you many answers.
At any given time, if you asked 100 (truly) professional gamblers who is value in a 16 runner race then most would go for the same few horses.
Mark
Value Is EverythingI don’t know much about percentages, Sean Boyce from ATR does and as he highlighted this afternoon, within a split-second before the off, one particular horse went from 10/11 to 4/6 with, I think no variation elsewhere on the board, resulting in an (not sure of the term) over….of 130%, greatly favouring the bookmakers. So, in terms of this thread, how can anyone expect to get true value when greedy bookmakers are slicing off a bigger piece of the cake than they honestly deserve? It seems to me not unlike going into your supermarket, passing a dozen eggs through the checkout and then when you come to open the box finding you only have eleven. Why are bookmakers allowed to get away with such sleight of hand?
If 100% books have nothing to do with probability then why have bookmakers odds compilers always do the same thing?
A bookmaker does not know the definate probability of each horse, he can only take an educated view. As we punters do.
Hi Mark,
You seem to have a strange view on mathematics… is it maybe that you don’t understand? All, and I stress ALL, a bookmaker does is sell what is 100% probable at a bigger price…. all the odds compilers in the world can’t change a proven mathematical fact. This is not my opinion, although I concur, but beyond any reasonable doubt a true fact.
Odds Compilers, Form Makers, Tipsters, anyone who trys to influence beting without a sound understanding of the true nature of mathematics is purely in business because the masses have been brainwashed into believing they are a necessity.
… resulting in an (not sure of the term) over….of 130%, greatly favouring the bookmakers.
Hi Ken,
The terminology you were looking for was Over Round.
I actually saw that myself today and wrily smirked. I do agree but it isn’t a level playing field but there are swings and roundabouts. Like the bookmaker, now retired and smiling his fat face on TV occassionaly who laughed at me when I wanted £??? at 33/1, said to be kind to me he would give me 50’s and then cryed when I handed him the winning ticket.
Some we win some we lose and it can be really frustrating especially when it is done right in front of you… even Dick Turpin wore a mask they say
If 100% books have nothing to do with probability then why have bookmakers odds compilers always do the same thing?
A bookmaker does not know the definate probability of each horse, he can only take an educated view. As we punters do.
Hi Mark,
You seem to have a strange view on mathematics… is it maybe that you don’t understand? All, and I stress ALL, a bookmaker does is sell what is 100% probable at a bigger price…. all the odds compilers in the world can’t change a proven mathematical fact. This is not my opinion, although I concur, but beyond any reasonable doubt a true fact.
Odds Compilers, Form Makers, Tipsters, anyone who trys to influence beting without a sound understanding of the true nature of mathematics is purely in business because the masses have been brainwashed into believing they are a necessity.
Hmmmmm,
Now you think some odds compilers don’t understand mathematics?
A bookmaker is not "selling what is 100% probable at a bigger price" because he is not dealing in 100% facts. Yes, a bookie will be working to an over round so can make a profit whichever horse wins. But equally there will be occasions when he has made a mistake on an individuals chance of winning, and it is up to us punters to find that individual.You say it took you only weeks to figure out you could not do racing the same way as Black Jack. It should have taken you a second.
In Black Jack you can CARD COUNT, in racing you can not. Every horse does not have the same chance of coming down as an ace. A horses chance is not certain (not fact) so a punter can only form an educated opinion.To have an idea of probability in racing you need to have an idea of the form of each horse; so you can come to a subjective opinion to their chance of winning. i.e. Value.
I note Caledon, you did not answer my question:
Do you use true odds / the table of odds and chances?
You seemed to ignore it, or may be it is you who does not understand.Mark
Value Is Everything
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