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I see melon is an “intended runner”
7/2 not a bad price if your a fan of the horse, not for me thoughThe new one @ 6/4 does not appeal either, although he will relish this, probably the most likely winner at this stage..
Old guard been running well since hos summer wind op, may jjst get found out in this, the other 3 dont intrest me
Cant believe MTOY is 7/2 after nicky saying “he believes he has to run” albeit better ground would suit but he does handle a bit of juice,hes getting 6lbs from melon and the new one which is delightful, hes also getting 4lbs from old guard, @ 7/2 ill latch on antepost, if hes a definite runner probably will be around 2/1 aslong as melon stays in, ill be all over him of hes declared, im not concerned about the age quite yet, well not until i see how he runs in this.
MTOY 7/2
Jeepers getting 6pds regardless of being an old boy..they’d be mad not to run him!
Edited this after just looking at race and form quickly, he got 8 from TNO last year and a beating….but i see your view still.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Sorry Ham but My Tent just does not want to win. He’s hasn’t won over hurdles since the Christmas Hurdle of 2013; that’s 4 years ago.
He was 7/4 for this race last year and in receipt of 8 pounds (8 pounds!) from The New One he was beaten just shy of 4 lengths. So forgive me for thinking he’s a horse I don’t want to keep on side.
The New One probably just about deserves to be favourite in my book but I feel Melon will probably take this. He’s had a run under his belt, has crack Cheltenham form and goes on anything.
I’ll keep my powder dry until final declarations as I am very well aware the whole picture could change yet.
Old Guard is at the top of his form and looks too big at 10/1. He won this as a 4-y-o. He’ll do for me.
It will be interesting to see where he goes after this, win or lose. He’s in the Long Walk and I’ve had a small bet at a big price on him for the Stayers in March.
Sorry Ham but My Tent just does not want to win
Cant argue with anything youv said, except that he does not want to win
Im more keen on tent, because of TNO’s prep this year rather than thinking tent is a certainty, hes usually fresh(ish) or came in off easy races coming into this and thats not the case this time, deserved fav for sure, but short enough to oppose, i dont like melon yet, hes arguably the only real “improver” in the field now, but cant have him until i see improvement,
Chitibello is an outside im interested in, like you say joe old guard has been fantastic also!
Tent may not run if it went silly soft, but at the price im happy to play.
Chtibello is a great bet I think @ 10/1.
Each way is only first two but I have had a bet with Betfred at 10s for quarter the odds first two.
MTOY will finish second as usual. He always finishes second these days. He has done so well for me in the each way market over the years though that I would love to see him win a big prize. I’d smile if he was to win this.
Melon i just don’t rate. I didn’t like his attitude when beaten but Cilaos Emery at Punchestown after finishing second in a terrible supreme. I was not impressed by his reappearance either.
The New One is not the horse of old. His last run was poor.
My horse will get the ground he likes too.
Ch’tibello @ 10/1 each eay
Mom, I’m with you all the way with Ch’tibello at 10s. I think he was overlooked
in just about every race he ran in last year. His win over MTOY and Old Guard
at Haydock in November was put down by many to the heavy ground, I thought his 5/1
was very generous. In the Christmas Hurdle, he was again overlooked at 14/1, and
was a running on 3rd behind Yanworth and The New One on good ground. If he had
started his run earlier I think he would have been closer. Again it was no fluke when
he looked like the winner, only to be reeled in at the death by Yanworth next
time out in the Kingwell Hurdle in February.I had backed him at 50/1 and 40/1 for the Champion Hurdle. I don’t think he would
have beaten Buveur D’Air, but MTOY finished 2nd and Ch’tibello had him behind him
on the last 2 occasions they met, I was sick when he withdrawn on the day of the race.
MTOY is less that half the price of Ch’tibello at 4/1 on Saturday, I don’t understand
that
Dan Skelton says he thought Ch’tibello needed good ground, but then found out that he
acted really well on soft or heavy. Skelton’s stable is going well, I think he will be
half the price he is come Saturday. I think he’s worth a decent bet
I think it’s a strange betting market.
I too had him at 50/1 each way in the champion hurdle. But his attitude had me always thinking it was a place bet realistically. Buveur Dair beat him fair and square.
But, as you say, on form, Ch’tibello should never be double his price.
If there was any horse in training that I didn’t have a bet on that I’d want to win a championship race at the festival in march, it will be him. If my bet is out of it coming up the hill and MTOY is in contention, I’ll roar him home.
Ch’tibello has apparently been aimed at this race too which is a plus.
The New One should win if it stays soft. MTOY don’t like soft, Ch’tibello never at his best first time out and everything else wrong at the weights.
Not sure how you’ve worked out Chtibello as “never at his best first time out”, Mike. Only beaten 1 1/2 lengths carrying 11-12 in the William Hill Handicap last year off a mark of 144. Also run well off long breaks on two or three other occasions including when winning the Scottish Champion Hurdle. Improving when last seen, only beaten a length by Yanworth (who gave 4 lbs) in Kingwell, 1 1/4 ahead of Sceau Royal (levels). Now getting 6 lbs from novice Melon and old stager The New One, 4 from Old Guard and John Constable… And with Skelton in outstanding form.
True Melon has potential, but at these weights is very short. Ditto The New One has a great record in this race, but doesn’t always jump well. Weight he’s giving away to some good horses is a leveller. True that he gave 8 lbs and a 3 1/2 lengths beating to My Tent Or Yours last year, but that was a MTOY well below form… And it’s true MTOY has not been at his best on reappearance/this time of year… On a long losing run. So probably won’t be good enough this time either. But MTOY is probably on his final season – not many races left. Said to have done plenty of work this time too and at their bests not only is MTOY the better horse, he’s getting 6 lbs. I was all over TNO in last year’s race and against MTOY, expected it to be the same this time around, but MTOY was 7/4 then – he’s 11/2 here. Might be fitter this time around and every horse has a price to be worth taking a chance.
I’ve taken 8/1 Chtibello and 11/2 My Tent Or Yours.
Value Is EverythingI think it’ll be another boring The New One chisel job.
Old Guard in form but has never been good enough (won a very weak renewal), MTOY almost unbackable for win purposes, Melon plenty to prove and bottled-up, Ch’tibello a bit of an opportunist fraud who was meant to be going chasing and not much of note besides.
Personally make TNO a 13/8 poke here.
Whats boring about that LS? He definitely does not get the recognition he deserves!
Hes out to 5/2! Thats more than generous, id almost consider a saver at that price, melon of course the reason for that, but finding an extra 10lbs might be hard enough
For the champion hurdle picture it would probably be most beneficial if melon came out and annhialated them, cant seenit myself though
Good luck everyone
If melon can’t beat Mtoy or the New One then there is no future for him as a hurdler and over fences he should go. I expect melon to win. I believe Mullins thinks he is the second best 2mile hurdler in his yard. He Should be too good for this field. Why oh why doesn’t Nigel just give the New One a crack at the long walk hurdle just to see how it goes. He could possibly win a world hurdle but has no chance in a champion hurdle.
I agree with Wex on this one.
For me MELON at 2/1 is a huge even though the weights don’t favour him. If they consider this to be their CH reserve horse then he only has to turn up and jump well against this lot to get the job done.
And if he doesn’t then they will send him chasing nuff said.My Tent or Yours is not normally a horse I support but at the weights he must have a great chance in this. He is very ground dependent but the times on Friday were indicative of good to soft ground and with a dry forecast he should be able to do himself justice. His record first time out is actually pretty decent (last year aside, when it was heavy).He won the Fighting Fifth in 2013 first time out (and won first time out the two previous years) and then ran an excellent race when second to Annie Power in the 2016 Champion Hurdle after an almost two year break. It is unlikely they think he can win a Champion Hurdle now and this probably represents his best chance of winning a Graded race this season. At 11/2, he looks a solid bet.
Interesting thoughts about the ground. Around half minute outside standard in my book is tiring ground. Plus a dry cold night to come which usually results in ground describes as ‘dead’ by jockeys. Nicky Henderson says in his column he fears ground gone against the Tent as well.
He seems up against it.
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