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Thanks Reet.
Regarding Sanctuaire, I think he’s that impossible to place/below top class horse that’ll run well in races like this but not well enough to make any impact. I think if he was going to step it up this year, he should’ve gone closer in the Greatwood off 150, especially with the way he settled. Was his first run of the season though, so you never know.
Not sure whether to do Menorah E/W at 4’s or Grandouet to win.
I’ve decided to go with the Henderson horse at 3/1 with a tenner win as he could easily outclass these. He has so much speed and though the hill could be an issue, at the odds he’s worth the risk.
I am interested to see how Menroah goes but this is surely an afterthought from connections.
ZipMy 100% book:
Grandouet 5/2
,
Overturn 100/30
, Menorah 5/1, Brampour 7/1,
Clerk’s Choice 11/1
, Pittoni 20/1, Sanctuaire 20/1, Stormy Weather No Price. (My prices only go down to a 0.05% 2000/1 shot).
Backed Grandouet @ 3/1 and 100/30, saved on Overturn and Clerk’s Choice @ 4/1 and 14/1.
I’ve also backed Grandouet for the Champion. He was impressive in winning at Haydock. Form wasn’t up to much, but it was the way he did it. Travels well and shows a good turn of foot. Going supremely well on reappearance when coming down two out. Thought by some not to be a Cheltenham horse, but that is too early to judge in my opinion. Placed in Triumph, would’ve beaten Zarkander at Aintree but for being brought down, then impressive in Irish Champion 4 year old Hurdle. Has plenty of pace which should suit conditions. Gets a handy 4 lbs from both his main rivals.
Overturn is in fine form this season, winning Coral Hurdle and Fighting Fifth in quick succession. Genuine front runner who might get his own way again out in front. Got more speed than people give him credit for and goes very well on a sound surface.
Menorah is coming back from a bad experience chasing. Probably needs to improve on last season’s form here, though that is not out of the question.
Brampour has been impressive in a couple of handicaps under Harry Derham. However, he’s unable to claim. Although one of the best conditionals we’ve seen for some time, Brampour is effectively carrying a penalty. Also unlikely to get the truly run race of his two victories.
Clerk’s Choice has moved from Michael Banks to Oliver Sherwood. Won first time out last season and not out of it on form. 6th in Champion Hurdle. 2 lengths behind Menorah and is 4 lbs better off here. Finished 5 lengths in front of Overturn and is also 4 lbs better off with him too. Although latter was below form after pacemaking. Clerk’s Choice goes very well on the expected good ground. Worth a saver at least at double figure prices.
Pittoni shouldn’t be quick enough on this ground, unless AP makes plenty of use of him. Probably not good enough anyway.
Sanctuaire has lost his way since winning the Fred Winter. Often pulls too hard for his own good.
Forget Stormy Weather.
Value Is EverythingBrampour looks the value at 11/2, so I’ve gone for a bit of each-way thievery – but I’ll settle for the price of a bag of crisps if Overturn wins.
Twitter=@PGHenn
So don't run, just like the others always do
Never a worry with Brian Geharty ridng but I’m a little surprised AP never kept the mount on Granduoet. Not that it was his to keep but with Binocular still not showing anything like his best form the chances are he may not even make the Champion Hurdle.
BG will obviously be waiting to see how Spirit Son has trained on before committing himself to anything but my bet is he may well have already said he’ll ride Grandouet who has improved tons since last year.
I’m ultra confident he’ll win with ease today despite the return of Menorah.
IMO there is no way on earth Overturn has improved an ounce since last season when he was put firmly in his place in both the races against Binocular and in the Champion itself. He’s been in the right place at the right time but this is a different kettle of fish today.
Why Grandouet is available at 3/1 amazes me.
Menorah
has done little wrong over hurdles and looked in command when unseating on his chase debut.
He may have disappointed some with his performance in the Champion Hurdle, but he was beaten less than ten lengths that day and was possibly OTT at Punchestowns.
Grandouet has a touch of class, but also a touch of the ‘Finian’s Rainbow’ about him. He was thrashed by Sam Winner at this venue last year and took a slight advantage at the last in the Triumph before finding little up the hill.
When you take into consideration Menorah’s record around Cheltenham and his ability to power up the hill, the 4YO may find a couple too strong at this stage of his career.
I very rarely watch The Morning Line these days but thankfully I did this morning.
Stan James PR guy was on there pushing the fact that as they are sponsoring the race they have an unbelievable offer where if you bet up to £50 on the race from an iPhone or any app supported device via their mobile web site and your horse loses they will refund your cash.
I find the race quite a tough call but in a no-lose situation like that my £50 has gone on Grandouet. Mainly down to the superb form of the Henderson horses.
Lee
Never a worry with Brian Geharty
Who?
Our prices are looking slightly better now mate
Could have done with them going a bit faster but a class performance all the same
Never did get why they switched back, he was definitely flattered by that monkey of a thing Cue Card stopping like someone had caught him by the tail last year but he’s still a better than average horse. I was really impressed by some of his jumping plus he looked a lot happier with the slightly slower pace over fences. Hope they send him chasing again as I can’t see where he can possibly go now over hurdles.
Very promising for Grandouet. Now proven he stays a stiff 2 miles (at least on good ground) and acts well around Cheltenham. Coming down the hill he needed to get around Pittoni and Barry just pushed for a couple of strides. Grandouet just scooted around the horse and got straight back on the bridle. How many other Champion candidates would still be cruising coming to the last like that? Answer: Only Hurricane Fly, who is currently under a cloud.
14/1 is looking good H! Wouldn’t like it to turn up soft in March, but it rarely does these days.
Could not see why some bookies lengthened Brampour afterwards, considering Derham couldn’t claim. It will be interesting who rides in the big one. It won’t be Ruby if the Irish horse is fit, so I suppose Harry is still hopeful. The faster they go early, the better for Brampour.
Overturn is my favourite horse at the moment. A real trier. Reminds me a lot of David Elsworth’s Floyd. However, he’s exposed as just below Champion class (at least in terms of winning). May well be one for a few "trials" given fast ground.
With question marks against favourite Hurricane Fly, you can’t blame the Hobbs team switching back to hurdles. Particularly with Peddlers Cross and Al Ferof looking better than average Arkle horses. Just to see if Menorah is good enough over the smaller obstacles. Agree with H, it’s possible he’s flattered by winning this from the weak finisher Cue Card. On the other hand, suppose the fall at Exeter might have taken more out of him than first thought.
Clerk’s Choice was never travelling with the same fluencey as last year. With Oliver Sherwood’s words beforehand, it’s possible he needed it.
Value Is EverythingI was just saying on the Cheltenham thread how important the ability to make that move you mention is to Champion Hurdle horses.
The fact he did that so well gave my confidence in his ability to actually win a Champion Hurdle a massive boost.
He’s still very young so I hope Nicky rests him and gives him one easy race,The Kingwell would be perfect, before the big day.
Certainly owes me nothing so "que sera"
One thing I would add is it would do him no harm if he had to be asked to quicken sooner than he was today. I thought it was very noticeable he was just getting into top gear when he passed the winning post. A changed horse from the one we saw back in March.
so if he gets into a dual with the likes of Zakander and Hurricane Fly a bit before the last I’d be fairly confident he’d hold his own.
Well done to all those who had faith in Grandouet, esp Hurdygurdyman whose thoughts on getting Grandouet running a bit further out are most interesting. B Geraghty (very little between him and Ruby I think in a fine era of jockeys)seemed almost frustrated after the race that he hadn’t been able to hold him up for longer.
When he put Grandouet under pressure, the horse visibly lengthened stride I thought – most impressive – while also still looking a bit green, to my eye, if that doesn’t sound daft. I think the inexperience of pressure caused that and perhaps HGM, that’s what you mean when you want to see the horse begin his run a bit sooner?
Geraghty would need nerves of steel and huge confidence to pull off both a hold-up ride (which he seems determined to give the horse in future) and getting him running from some way out because he’d have to lie way off the pace to accomplish both, a very risky PR strategy on such a strong traveller.
As a side note, I’ve little doubt Overturn has improved substantially as a hurdler and he ran a fine race today giving the winner 4lbs and running him to 4L. His rider reported the ground a bit dead and the horse not showing his usual spark.
If that’s true, under normal circumstances, he’d make huge EW appeal at the 20s on offer. But Cheltenham’s policy of producing good to soft ground on day one means a potential CH winner might as well stay at home. I’m aware of all the PR and safety arguments but I think it is a flawed policy which deliberately discriminates against top-of-the-ground horses at the biggest meeting of the year.
Finally, in all the rightful celebration of Grandouet. I wouldn’t forget that Zarkandar absolutely slaughtered him in the Triumph. No question that Grandouet has improved enormously but Zarkandar is the same age, a more compact and, arguably, symmetrically built horse than Grandouet, and has every chance of having also made at least the same improvement.
What is is on no doubt is that we have the most talented handful of four-year-olds we’ve seen in many years. Strict interpretation isn’t quite fair, I know, but given that today Grandouet beat Menorah further than Hurricane Fly did in the Champion Hurdle, it could be argued that the Triumph form is being franked much more solidly than the CH form, making the Fly lousy-looking value at 7/4.
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