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I thought there would already be a thread for this but perhaps all minds are focussed on Cheltenham.
This race has become something of an institution in spotting the Pipe horse that may have been lined up to complete the double by going on the following week to land a Cheltenham race and snag a tasty bonus.
They have done it several times before and have a likely candidate this time in the unbeaten Bidourey. Generally favourite since betting opened he has been a little weak in the betting today, with a couple of firms going 15/2 now and no signs of a plunge/scramble to see where he’ll go at Cheltenham developing yet.
He’s closely followed by Mr Saturday, Paul Nicholls’ Calipto in the betting. The one time Triumph Hurdle “Good Thing” disappointed a bit in that race after being an ominous drifter on the final day of what had been a poor meeting for the trainer.
Nicky Henderson’s West Wizard is a surprisingly popular selection for this race, with Timeform awarding him the five stars in their preview. It surprises me purely because he’s been beaten at odds of 1/6, 2/9 and 4/5 on his last three starts. The general consensus is that he’s been unlucky to bump into quite smart horses and will now reap the benefits in handicap company.
Plenty of eyes will be on Zip Top simply because AP is on board. Such is the interest in the legend since his announcement of intention to retire, it is now deemed newsworthy if one of his farts sounds slightly different to the usual 82 decibel volume emitted. The horse, if anyone is interested in the side show, has a nice looking weight of 10st 5lb and was runner up to Camelot in the Racing Post Trophy when he was two.
Fascino Rustico and Chieftains Choice both fell in the Betfair Hurdle. The former horse was disputing third when falling two out and the latter departed at the 4th hurdle. Both had come into that race with similar chances after winning their previous two races and they will both have their supporters looking for them to bounce back.
I have seen Arzal tipped and it is not hard to see why after his 6th place in the Betfair Hurdle where the two horses above fell. He was badly hampered when Chieftains Choice fell at the 4th and he dropped back before making headway to finish sixth. People tend to latch on to horses deemed unlucky the previous time, probably the reason he is around half the odds of the 20/1 he was that day for the race upcoming.
Some Buckle might have been more prominent in the betting if he were coming here straight after his short head second to Glingerburn when he was 7/4 favourite to beat that horse. That winner went on to win two races at Kelso, catching the eye first time and then beating one time Triumph Hurdle second favourite Bristol De Mai in good style, giving him 9lbs into the bargain in a grade two Novice Hurdle. Some Buckle went on to run 5th to Alan King’s Ordo Ab Chao in a Cheltenham grade two, where he had another of this line up, Thistlecrack, a long way behind him. Although Thistlecrack went on to win next time, it is hard to get away from the fact that he meets Some Buckle on only 4 lbs better terms after being a long way behind when they last met. It’s a bit puzzling that they are around the same odds.
The other horse that interests me is the top weight Camping Ground. This ex-French horse made a good start in the UK when winning at Warwick in a decent Handicap Chase. I have already backed him for The Festival Plate and he’s catching my eye here over hurdles, with potentially a sneaky shot at a follow up in the chase at the Festival in a different way to skin a £100,000 rabbit.
I’m not going to cover all the runners for lack of time and if one of them wins, c’est la vie.
Conclusion:-
I can’t back a horse who has lost three times on the trot at odds-on so I am giving West Wizard a miss here. He is as low as 13/2 jt fav and I would rather watch him win than get drawn in at a short enough price and have to ask myself why I went with a horse whose form lines have so many BFs in it. BF = Bookie’s Friend
Calipto is opposed on similar grounds. Although he has been running in much more competitive fare, you get the feeling he could be one of those “This is the day” horses, whose day only comes, if ever, once you have pawned the PS4 and sent all the DVD’s and CD’s to Music Magpie. No doubt Mr Saturday will be grinning like the Cheshire Cat at 3.30 tomorrow, saying “This is almost embarrassing the way we keep meeting Rishi”
Bidourey obviously warrants consideration with his unblemished record and course/distance form. This is a lot more competitive though and I wonder why they have decided to put a tongue tie on for the first time tomorrow? Market confidence hasn’t really been there, which will result in either “How the hell did it start at that price” or “Somebody knew something” in the aftermath. I’ll pass with the belief that it hasn’t been the greatest of seasons for the Pipe team regarding big pots.
I’ll go for two at bigger odds.
Camping Ground has caught my eye and could be potentially smart. He’s got top weight but is far from fully exposed. It will be interesting to see where he goes if lining up at Cheltenham next week and I think he’s worth an each-way bet at 20/1 with Stan James. The Tote only go half those odds.
The other selection is Some Buckle. He ran Glingerburn very close off levels and the form of that horse took off on his next two starts. The winner of the next race he competed in Ordo Ab Chao is quietly fancied to run well by some at Cheltenham next week. In handicap company and with a tongue tie fitted for the first time I am hoping Some Buckle is feasibly handicapped and worth an interest at 14/1 in a typically open affair.
Good luck if you are having a go and have a good Cheltenham.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Nice write up Steve. Surprised you didn’t say Some Buckle was a belter, and you also made me wonder if Camping Ground had ever shared a box with My Tent or Yours.
I haven’t looked at it with anything like such attention to detail, but have backed Thistlecrack, and I suspect that eternal bridesmaid Gassin Golf could place at a big price.
Good luck
Nice write up Steve. Surprised you didn’t say Some Buckle was a belter, and you also made me wonder if Camping Ground had ever shared a box with My Tent or Yours.
I haven’t looked at it with anything like such attention to detail, but have backed Thistlecrack, and I suspect that eternal bridesmaid Gassin Golf could place at a big price.
Good luck
Thanks Joe, I was tempted to say that Some Buckle might notch up a win if he doesn’t belt a few and get tightened up. Hopefully he’ll put up a polished display having been the subject of support. I am not sure if he is a hold up horse.
Camping Ground might do well if he can get a good pitch early and may take some pegging back if the others allow him too much rope. The hope is that he can carry My Tent Or Yours, in fact, in theory he should be able to cope with My Tent And Yours, plus several others as well. He’s OK on most going but less popular on Hard ground.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I think Camping Ground may have been a tad unfortunate when the front two came across him on the run in. Don’t think he would have won but he would probably have finished third with a clear run.
Nice write up Steve. Surprised you didn’t say Some Buckle was a belter, and you also made me wonder if Camping Ground had ever shared a box with My Tent or Yours.
I haven’t looked at it with anything like such attention to detail, but have backed Thistlecrack, and I suspect that eternal bridesmaid Gassin Golf could place at a big price.
Good luck
We didn’t do too badly between us Joe. 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th in a race with rank outsiders 1st and 2nd and plenty fancied ones pulled up.
Gassin’ Golf just can’t seem to get his head in front but he’s had some amount of seconds and thirds. It’s only really a couple of times he’s run poorly. Thistlecrack managed to turn around a 53 length deficit with Some Buckle on just 4 lbs better terms today and he must have had an off day that last time. Despite his win next time out it was just a leap of faith I couldn’t take today.
Bitter disappointments from Bidourey and Calipto, the former was a terrible price at 9/2.
West Wizard didn’t manage to land the Reverse Polish Logic/Irish Logic mix theory that reckoned he could win at 8/1, after being beaten at 1/6, 2/9 and 4/5 on his previous three runs.
Some Buckle ran perfectly respectably and I was really pleased with Camping Ground’s effort off his 11st 12lb burden. He’ll be of interest to me if he turns up for The Festival Plate on Thursday, a race I have had a wee tickle on him for, where he will be going back over fences and stepping up a half mile, to the distance he won over at Warwick last time. I am sure the extra stamina test will help and I may just top up my bet after today’s encouraging effort.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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