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Can’t comment on the ratings side of it, that’s way out of my league.<br>I do feel that Heffernan was guilty of a little bit of complacency, something I notice is often the case when jockeys are riding those types of odds on shots.<br> I thought DT’s jockey sort of dozed off mid race as they came down the hill out of the back straight. Losing a few vital lenghts and a good position. <br>I would bet anything that had there been stronger and more obvious competition Heffernan would have rode that race very differently, having possibly underestimated what he faced on Sunday.<br>I’d be surprised if it turns out that Notnowkato is a better horse this year than DT and from what I’ve read on this thread that seems the general opinion.
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ew
<br>Notnowcato Is a 3/4lb better horse on good ground than on fast.<br>Dylan Thomas is a 3/4lb worse horse on good than on fast.<br>Youmzain is a 12f horse.<br>It really isn’t rocket science.
ew,
A Topspeed figure about 20lbs or more below the RPR tells us what?
I suppose it is meaningful in the sense that it tells us that this was not a truly run race for some reason or there is something wrong with the timing, distance, going correction or wind allowance. It doesn’t help us from a handicapping point of view. That’s what I meant.
The RPR handicappers ignore poor speed ratings in the same way they ignore horses who are badly baulked or run below form on unsuitable ground.
On the other hand, when faced with a Topspeed rating of say 125 (Cockney Rebel, 2,000gns at Newmarket), the handicapper is virtually forced to award a RPR of at least 125. He actually rated him at 124.
Topspeed and RPR are both measuring the same thing by different methods, but the assumption for Topspeed has to be a truly run race whereas for RPR time doesn’t matter unless it is a very good one.
Quote: from reet hard on 6:36 pm on May 29, 2007[br]ew
<br>Notnowcato Is a 3/4lb better horse on good ground than on fast.<br>Dylan Thomas is a 3/4lb worse horse on good than on fast.<br>Youmzain is a 12f horse.<br>It really isn’t rocket science. <br>
In your opinion, which is fair enough, however i don’t agree with it and can’t you discuss anything without school kid comments – grow up man
<br>Artemis
With you m8 and thanks for the good post, it helps me in trying to understand why they rate races how they do and imo they should take the race time and pace into account
(Edited by empty wallet at 8:27 pm on May 29, 2007)
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ew
"The  A beat B, so rating = X is uttter carp and more thought needs to be taken "
Then maybe you should take your own advice?;)
Quote: from reet hard on 12:14 am on May 30, 2007[br]ew
"The A beat B, so rating = X is uttter carp and more thought needs to be taken "
Then maybe you should take your own advice?;)
<br> you think A beat B = rating is not utter carp then reet and more thought should not be put into it when compiling ratings ?
<br>
(Edited by empty wallet at 9:38 am on May 30, 2007)
I can see where empty is coming from.
There are two essential aspects to handicapping a race – assessing the level of form of the race itself and assigning ratings to the individual horses.
You could rate Notnowcato ahead of Dylan Thomas if you wished – he did beat him after all – but one of the consequences of rating the entire race on that assumption is that you get a horse like Fracas running his best ever race.
That’s the somewhat disappointing Fracas, being beaten over 6 lengths into fifth, in a race run in a slow time (there have been issues with the positioning of this start, however) running his best race.
I suspect the race should have been rated a bit lower, though there would still be the scope to rate individual horses on position figures etc.
Quote: from Prufrock on 9:36 am on May 30, 2007[br]
You could rate Notnowcato ahead of Dylan Thomas if you wished – he did beat him after all – but one of the consequences of rating the entire race on that assumption is that you get a horse like Fracas running his best ever race.
That’s the somewhat disappointing Fracas, being beaten over 6 lengths into fifth, in a race run in a slow time (there have been issues with the positioning of this start, however) running his best race.
<br>
<br>Indeed Prufrock and you have Youmzain, (a horse every one knows is better suited to 12f ) running only 2lb below his best, you have injured horse Danak running 1lb below his best too
i don’t know about others, but i think horses running over their wrong trips and running with injuries don’t run that near to their best form,
The same applies to a horse that is best suited to coming from off a decent gallop
More thought is needed as stated
<br>
(Edited by empty wallet at 10:34 am on May 30, 2007)
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Quote: from Prufrock on 9:36 am on May 30, 2007[br]I can see where empty is coming from.
There are two essential aspects to handicapping a race – assessing the level of form of the race itself and assigning ratings to the individual horses.
You could rate Notnowcato ahead of Dylan Thomas if you wished – he did beat him after all – but one of the consequences of rating the entire race on that assumption is that you get a horse like Fracas running his best ever race.
That’s the somewhat disappointing Fracas, being beaten over 6 lengths into fifth, in a race run in a slow time (there have been issues with the positioning of this start, however) running his best race.
I suspect the race should have been rated a bit lower, though there would still be the scope to rate individual horses on position figures etc.<br>
What is the point of any rating if it doesn’t take into account the circumstances the race was run under – and the horses capabilities in those circumstances.<br>Fracas improved his best rating by 1lb (achieved twice previously – both on good ground) so all the ratings for the race are questionable, yet we can ignore the very factor that influenced the result by some 7 or 8lbs. <br>Fine, if your forte is tinkering with figures, but little use as the basis for serious punting.
Quote: from reet hard on 10:57 am on May 30, 2007[br]
<br>What is the point of any rating if it doesn’t take into account the circumstances the race was run under – and the horses capabilities in those circumstances.
<br>I take it from the above statement reet, that you agree the A beat B= rating is utter carp and more thought should be taken
Not absolutely sure what you are trying to say there, reet hard. But I form my view of the capabilities of horses on what they appear to have achieved using an independent and largely objective assessment, rather than basing my view of an entire race on a prior assumption about one or two horses within that race.
That, it could be said, is plenty of use as the basis for serious punting.
Quote: from Prufrock on 11:21 am on May 30, 2007[br] I form my view of the capabilities of horses on what they appear to have achieved using an independent and largely objective assessment, rather than basing my view of an entire race on a prior assumption about one or two horses within that race.<br>ing.
<br>A Sharp Mind imo
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<br>Pru
Strange that, as all my betting is based on prior assumptions!;)
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