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The home of intelligent horse racing discussion

I'm mystified again

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  • #1815
    empty walletempty wallet
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    • Total Posts 1631

    Explain this to me someone

    Tattersalls Gold Cup

    Notnowcato has been awarded a RPR of 127, but only a TS of  39

    Fantastic Light RPR 127,  TS 115 beating Golden Snake and Kalanisi

    Grey Swallow 126, TS 73 beating Bago, Ace, Azamour and Norse Dancer

    If Notnowcato’s  performance  is near that  of Fantastic Lights or even Grey Swallows,  i’m a friggin dutchman

    How can a race that is awarded such a low speedfigure have a such high rating awarded to it?

    <br>

    (Edited by empty wallet at 11:18 am on May 29, 2007)

    #62482
    Flash
    Member
    • Total Posts 1144

    Does a speed figure and a handicap mark have to go hand in hand? Does one have to affect the other?

    Personally I agree with you in as much as I have rated Notnowcato’s performance 120 which is some six pounds lower than RPR.

    #62483
    betlargebetlarge
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2663

    Does a speed figure and a handicap mark have to go hand in hand? Does one have to affect the other?

    <br>No.

    Mike

    #62484
    Artemis
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1736

    empty wallet,

    I thought you had the hang of this speed figure business.

    Only a fraction of all races will return meaningful speed figures. The absence of a good speed figure certainly calls the form into question but it cannot support a claim that the form is totally unreliable. A good speed figure is very solid evidence that the form is reliable – almost proof positive in my book, with a few caveats.

    I didn’t see the Notnowcato race, but I presume the pace was slow, quick, slow. This usually produces a moderate time, I believe. The RP analysis gives no clues as to the pace.

    The time was suspiciously slow, so maybe it was wrong, the distance was wrong or there was a headwind.

    #62486
    empty walletempty wallet
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    • Total Posts 1631

    I may have confused  people using the speedfigures, but they take into account the going and the race time,  both of which  SHOULD have an affect on the rating awarded

    In the RP handicappers case, he does not seem to be taking these SIGNIFICANT factors into account

    <br>Artemis

    ALL speedfigures tell you something and therefore they are ALL meaningful

    <br>Flash

    Thanks for your figure,  it shows your thinking along the same lines as me

    (Edited by empty wallet at 9:44 am on May 29, 2007)

    #62489
    madman marz
    Member
    • Total Posts 707

    Quote: from Artemis on 8:34 am on May 29, 2007[br]empty wallet,

    I thought you had the hang of this speed figure business.

    Only a fraction of all races will return meaningful speed figures. The absence of a good speed figure certainly calls the form into question but it cannot support a claim that the form is totally unreliable. A good speed figure is very solid evidence that the form is reliable – almost proof positive in my book, with a few caveats.

    I didn’t see the Notnowcato race, but I presume the pace was slow, quick, slow. This usually produces a moderate time, I believe. The RP analysis gives no clues as to the pace.

    The time was suspiciously slow, so maybe it was wrong, the distance was wrong or there was a headwind.<br>

    You should check out ATR’s video archives Artemis, right its not a great reception, but its handy if your away and missed some big races.

    #62490
    empty walletempty wallet
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    • Total Posts 1631

    Tattersall Gold Cup RPR  median

    1st 122<br>2nd 118<br>3rd 114<br>4th 112<br>5th 108

    Surely a horse that has run 30+ lengths slower than the RP  standard time on good ground should not be  rated 5lbs above the average winner

    <br>

    (Edited by empty wallet at 11:18 am on May 29, 2007)

    #62491
    clivex
    Member
    • Total Posts 3420

    Why not?

    Its what he/she beats that counts

    #62492
    empty walletempty wallet
    Member
    • Total Posts 1631

    Quote: from clivex on 11:03 am on May 29, 2007[br]Why not?

    Its what he/she beats that counts

    <br>It seems the RP handicapper thinks your way too Clivex

    #62493
    davidbrady
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    • Total Posts 3901

    Notnowcato held off Dylan Thomas for just over 2 furlongs. That, IMO, puts him ahead of an average Tattersalls Gold Cup winner.

    #62494
    empty walletempty wallet
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    • Total Posts 1631

    Yes David he did

    <br>Do you not think the way races are run have an affect on the result and also  effect the performances of certain horses within a race?

    (Edited by empty wallet at 12:12 pm on May 29, 2007)

    #62495
    Aragorn
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    • Total Posts 2208

    Ew, thats a bit of a non- question really? Of course they do…

    DT is a confirmed grade 1 horse, Notnowcato beat him, regardless of how the race was run DT had every chance and couldn’t get his head in front.. But, if Fallon was on board DT would have won.. I thought the jockey lost the race, too weak..

    #62496
    empty walletempty wallet
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    • Total Posts 1631

    Yes of course it does  and it was  the Pace of the race that cost DT, as it did at York and nothing to do with the jockey who manage to get Alexander of Hales past his stable mate with his urgings and strength in the saddle

    It also cost Youmzain as i stated it would before the race,  it also came to light that the 4th pulled a muscle during the race

    <br>Add this to the previously mention and you can see why i think the race is overrated

    <br>Notnowcato deserved his success, because he performed best in the race circumstances, as he did in similar run race at York

    The  A beat B, so rating = X is uttter carp and more thought needs to be taken

    <br>Just my opinion and i thought it may make an interesting discussion

    <br>

    (Edited by empty wallet at 1:28 pm on May 29, 2007)

    #62497
    davidbrady
    Member
    • Total Posts 3901

    Quote: from empty wallet on 1:22 pm on May 29, 2007[br]Yes of course it does  and it was  the Pace of the race that cost DT, as it did at York and nothing to do with the jockey who manage to get Alexander of Hales past his stable mate with his urgings and strength in the saddle

    Alexander of Hales wouldn’t have won if Murtagh was on Spanish Harlem so it’s all relative.

    I suppose the problem is that Gr1s are rated higher than Gr2s (and so on and so forth) irrespective of the strength in depth of the actual race itself.

    However, Notnowcato has raced in 5 Gr1s, winning 2 and 2nd in another, so he does look a proper Gr1 horse, whether the races were run at a proper gallop or not.

    I agree he’s no Fantastic Light though.

    Ratings at the top level of the sport are an irrelevance IMO. Every "proper" Gr1 horse has its ideal conditions (going / distance / course characteristics / pace etc) and finding and understanding these are far more important than trying to see if Horse A can find the 2lb required to beat Horse B this time.

    #62498
    empty walletempty wallet
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    • Total Posts 1631

    Quote: from davidbrady on 1:42 pm on May 29, 2007[br]

    Quote: from empty wallet on 1:22 pm on May 29, 2007[br]Yes of course it does  and it was  the Pace of the race that cost DT, as it did at York and nothing to do with the jockey who manage to get Alexander of Hales past his stable mate with his urgings and strength in the saddle

    Alexander of Hales wouldn’t have won if Murtagh was on Spanish Harlem so it’s all relative.

    I suppose the problem is that Gr1s are rated higher than Gr2s (and so on and so forth) irrespective of the strength in depth of the actual race itself.

    However, Notnowcato has raced in 5 Gr1s, winning 2 and 2nd in another, so he does look a proper Gr1 horse, whether the races were run at a proper gallop or not.

    I agree he’s no Fantastic Light though.

    Ratings at the top level of the sport are an irrelevance IMO. Every "proper" Gr1 horse has its ideal conditions (going / distance / course characteristics / pace etc) and finding and understanding these are far more important than trying to see if Horse A can find the 2lb required to beat Horse B this time.

    <br>David, jockey ability is the most overrated tool in racing and people blame the jockey for their misreading of horses and races

    <br>As for rating horses at top level, i think you’ll find it’s as much relevance as rating handicappers when done properly

    again,  just my opinion

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