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Explain this to me someone
Tattersalls Gold Cup
Notnowcato has been awarded a RPR of 127, but only a TS of 39
Fantastic Light RPR 127, TS 115 beating Golden Snake and Kalanisi
Grey Swallow 126, TS 73 beating Bago, Ace, Azamour and Norse Dancer
If Notnowcato’s performance is near that of Fantastic Lights or even Grey Swallows, i’m a friggin dutchman
How can a race that is awarded such a low speedfigure have a such high rating awarded to it?
<br>
(Edited by empty wallet at 11:18 am on May 29, 2007)
Does a speed figure and a handicap mark have to go hand in hand? Does one have to affect the other?
Personally I agree with you in as much as I have rated Notnowcato’s performance 120 which is some six pounds lower than RPR.
Does a speed figure and a handicap mark have to go hand in hand? Does one have to affect the other?
<br>No.
Mike
empty wallet,
I thought you had the hang of this speed figure business.
Only a fraction of all races will return meaningful speed figures. The absence of a good speed figure certainly calls the form into question but it cannot support a claim that the form is totally unreliable. A good speed figure is very solid evidence that the form is reliable – almost proof positive in my book, with a few caveats.
I didn’t see the Notnowcato race, but I presume the pace was slow, quick, slow. This usually produces a moderate time, I believe. The RP analysis gives no clues as to the pace.
The time was suspiciously slow, so maybe it was wrong, the distance was wrong or there was a headwind.
I may have confused people using the speedfigures, but they take into account the going and the race time, both of which SHOULD have an affect on the rating awarded
In the RP handicappers case, he does not seem to be taking these SIGNIFICANT factors into account
<br>Artemis
ALL speedfigures tell you something and therefore they are ALL meaningful
<br>Flash
Thanks for your figure, it shows your thinking along the same lines as me
(Edited by empty wallet at 9:44 am on May 29, 2007)
Quote: from Artemis on 8:34 am on May 29, 2007[br]empty wallet,
I thought you had the hang of this speed figure business.
Only a fraction of all races will return meaningful speed figures. The absence of a good speed figure certainly calls the form into question but it cannot support a claim that the form is totally unreliable. A good speed figure is very solid evidence that the form is reliable – almost proof positive in my book, with a few caveats.
I didn’t see the Notnowcato race, but I presume the pace was slow, quick, slow. This usually produces a moderate time, I believe. The RP analysis gives no clues as to the pace.
The time was suspiciously slow, so maybe it was wrong, the distance was wrong or there was a headwind.<br>
You should check out ATR’s video archives Artemis, right its not a great reception, but its handy if your away and missed some big races.
Tattersall Gold Cup RPR median
1st 122<br>2nd 118<br>3rd 114<br>4th 112<br>5th 108
Surely a horse that has run 30+ lengths slower than the RP standard time on good ground should not be rated 5lbs above the average winner
<br>
(Edited by empty wallet at 11:18 am on May 29, 2007)
Quote: from clivex on 11:03 am on May 29, 2007[br]Why not?
Its what he/she beats that counts
<br>It seems the RP handicapper thinks your way too Clivex
Notnowcato held off Dylan Thomas for just over 2 furlongs. That, IMO, puts him ahead of an average Tattersalls Gold Cup winner.
Yes David he did
<br>Do you not think the way races are run have an affect on the result and also effect the performances of certain horses within a race?
(Edited by empty wallet at 12:12 pm on May 29, 2007)
Ew, thats a bit of a non- question really? Of course they do…
DT is a confirmed grade 1 horse, Notnowcato beat him, regardless of how the race was run DT had every chance and couldn’t get his head in front.. But, if Fallon was on board DT would have won.. I thought the jockey lost the race, too weak..
Yes of course it does and it was the Pace of the race that cost DT, as it did at York and nothing to do with the jockey who manage to get Alexander of Hales past his stable mate with his urgings and strength in the saddle
It also cost Youmzain as i stated it would before the race, it also came to light that the 4th pulled a muscle during the race
<br>Add this to the previously mention and you can see why i think the race is overrated
<br>Notnowcato deserved his success, because he performed best in the race circumstances, as he did in similar run race at York
The A beat B, so rating = X is uttter carp and more thought needs to be taken
<br>Just my opinion and i thought it may make an interesting discussion
<br>
(Edited by empty wallet at 1:28 pm on May 29, 2007)
Quote: from empty wallet on 1:22 pm on May 29, 2007[br]Yes of course it does  and it was  the Pace of the race that cost DT, as it did at York and nothing to do with the jockey who manage to get Alexander of Hales past his stable mate with his urgings and strength in the saddle
Alexander of Hales wouldn’t have won if Murtagh was on Spanish Harlem so it’s all relative.
I suppose the problem is that Gr1s are rated higher than Gr2s (and so on and so forth) irrespective of the strength in depth of the actual race itself.
However, Notnowcato has raced in 5 Gr1s, winning 2 and 2nd in another, so he does look a proper Gr1 horse, whether the races were run at a proper gallop or not.
I agree he’s no Fantastic Light though.
Ratings at the top level of the sport are an irrelevance IMO. Every "proper" Gr1 horse has its ideal conditions (going / distance / course characteristics / pace etc) and finding and understanding these are far more important than trying to see if Horse A can find the 2lb required to beat Horse B this time.
Quote: from davidbrady on 1:42 pm on May 29, 2007[br]
Quote: from empty wallet on 1:22 pm on May 29, 2007[br]Yes of course it does and it was the Pace of the race that cost DT, as it did at York and nothing to do with the jockey who manage to get Alexander of Hales past his stable mate with his urgings and strength in the saddle
Alexander of Hales wouldn’t have won if Murtagh was on Spanish Harlem so it’s all relative.
I suppose the problem is that Gr1s are rated higher than Gr2s (and so on and so forth) irrespective of the strength in depth of the actual race itself.
However, Notnowcato has raced in 5 Gr1s, winning 2 and 2nd in another, so he does look a proper Gr1 horse, whether the races were run at a proper gallop or not.
I agree he’s no Fantastic Light though.
Ratings at the top level of the sport are an irrelevance IMO. Every "proper" Gr1 horse has its ideal conditions (going / distance / course characteristics / pace etc) and finding and understanding these are far more important than trying to see if Horse A can find the 2lb required to beat Horse B this time.
<br>David, jockey ability is the most overrated tool in racing and people blame the jockey for their misreading of horses and races
<br>As for rating horses at top level, i think you’ll find it’s as much relevance as rating handicappers when done properly
again, just my opinion
David, jockey ability is the most overrated tool in racing and people blame the jockey for their misreading of horses and races
Completely disagree with that.. In a tight race it is possibly the most important surely..
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