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  • #20991
    Avatar photoLeeknowles1
    Member
    • Total Posts 100

    Im trying to work out Flatstats.co.uk’s system builder so i can try and find out, but if anyone can help would be fantastic, ideally the info i need is How many short priced favorites got beat last season? evens or shorter please, if you can find out for me it will be fine but if not just the info i need on websites to find it myself!

    Thanks in advance

    #391442
    Avatar photoMatron
    Participant
    • Total Posts 6933

    This should help between 1991 – 2010:-

    http://adrianmassey.no-ip.org/web1/fav/fav0.php

    Regards
    :cool:

    #391445
    Avatar photoLeeknowles1
    Member
    • Total Posts 100

    This should help between 1991 – 2010:-

    http://adrianmassey.no-ip.org/web1/fav/fav0.php

    Regards
    :cool:

    Thankyou for that matron but im still struggling here,

    Outcome Return

    Bets

    Win

    Place

    Win

    E/W
    All Races

    144362

    34%

    62%

    92%

    91%

    So am i right in thinking that with regard to every race since 1991.. 34% of favs have come in,

    So what does this mean win 92% on the right hand side of it??

    That was taken from the top of the page!

    Regards

    #391450
    Avatar photoMatron
    Participant
    • Total Posts 6933

    With, that figure you would be on loss – every £100.00 invested you would have received back £92.00.

    You will need to scroll down the page to get the "stats" you want.

    Regards
    :cool:

    #391451
    Avatar photoLeeknowles1
    Member
    • Total Posts 100

    With, that figure you would be on loss – every £100.00 invested you would have received back £92.00.

    You will need to scroll down the page to get the "stats" you want.

    Regards
    :cool:

    So in theory backing every one of them to lose (Lay bet) would mean big dollar ;) … just trying something!

    Thanks alot buddy

    #391570
    Avatar photocormack15
    Keymaster
    • Total Posts 9336

    2011 on the flat (inc a/w) – evens or shorter.

    953 selections
    543 winners
    56.98% s/r
    1 pt level stake = loss of 66.19pts (-6.9% ROI)

    At Industry SP. (On Betfair SP you’d have lost only 16.31 pts before commission)

    Given you’d be laying them at BF prices AND paying commission this is no money spinner as it stands Lee.

    #391644
    Avatar photoLeeknowles1
    Member
    • Total Posts 100

    What it is Cormack im trying the Lay system in the Systems area, (£36,000) so its not a case of level stakes laying, its trying to make a certain amount of money on each race, kind of like the RED/BLACK on a roulette (Lose, double it, lose double it)

    So as long as a favorite gets beat this season, im in the money, the lower the % of favorite win.. the better!

    Cheers.

    #391645
    Avatar photorobnorth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 8445

    … kind of like the RED/BLACK on a roulette (Lose, double it, lose double it)…

    Lee

    That strategy is potentially the quickest way to ruin going.

    Rob

    #391650
    Avatar photoLeeknowles1
    Member
    • Total Posts 100

    … kind of like the RED/BLACK on a roulette (Lose, double it, lose double it)…

    Lee

    That strategy is potentially the quickest way to ruin going.

    Rob

    Sorry Rob could you elaborate please?

    Lee

    #391651
    Avatar photoDrone
    Participant
    • Total Posts 6344

    like the RED/BLACK on a roulette (Lose, double it, lose double it)

    The attraction but fatal fallacy of exponential 2^n staking

    see here:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martingale … _system%29

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martingale … _theory%29

    #391652
    Avatar photoZarkava
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4691

    Because if you lose 5 or 6 times in a row, you are ****-ed.

    #391656
    Avatar photoLeeknowles1
    Member
    • Total Posts 100

    Because if you lose 5 or 6 times in a row, you are [expletive]-ed.

    https://theracingforum.co.uk/horse-r … =3&t=89186

    This is what im doing, so as long as a favorite gets beat at some point, you will make 100 per race, so if i lose 8 in a row, you lay the horse to win £800, only on odds on favs, and 54% won last year i think it said… so im going to give it a go, not with 100’s though! build up slowly!

    #391664
    Avatar photoPurwell
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1624

    This would seem to be a reverse application of Seagull’s "Old Boy" system: https://theracingforum.co.uk/horse-r … =3&t=71513
    It worked for a year if I remember correctly, then went tits up and we’ve never heard from him since!
    Best of luck anyway Lee, but do stick to minimum stakes.

    I've stumbled on the side of twelve misty mountains
    I've walked and I crawled on six crooked highways
    #391713
    Avatar photocormack15
    Keymaster
    • Total Posts 9336

    It is intuitively appealing Lee, but flawed – a losing run (and it is inevitable sooner or later) will bring it down.

    #391828
    Avatar photoLeeknowles1
    Member
    • Total Posts 100

    It is intuitively appealing Lee, but flawed – a losing run (and it is inevitable sooner or later) will bring it down.

    We better hope it doesnt then! Only a little bit of fun and not big bets, wish me luck!

    #391835
    Avatar photoDrone
    Participant
    • Total Posts 6344

    Rather than burden yourself with multi-taps of the keyboard, and burden the forum with another incarnation of an old-and-tired-as-the-hills staking ‘system’ why not do as Purwell suggest and study all 59 pages of the ‘Old Boy’ thread – boom-boom-bust-bust-big-time

    I see you represent a firm which deals in waste paper – apposite or ironic? take your pick :?

    In my opinion these ‘doubling’ staking systems are not "fun" in the slightest, as their intuitive and addictive appeal to the innumerate renders them dangerous

    What’s your starting stake going to be?

    Shall we say 10p – do bookies still accept two-bob bets?

    9 successive losers (or winners in your case presumably) and your next stake will be £102.40

    think on

    #391838
    Avatar photoCav
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4833

    Not quite following the exact method being used here but the longest losing run of favourites in the UK by

    published off time

    for the last 3 full years is

    2009…25
    2010…26
    2011…21

    You’ll go skint.

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