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LAKE Forest 4/1
2 bets on this for good reason a chance this horse go to York for City of York. But this a easier race
2nd to Elite Status over 6f just look at his final furlong it clear wants 7f now
KIKULI 7/1
Early 7s with Hills gone was 2nd in Jersey not fire in Grpup one in France however he to early write off.
If Lake Forrest runs at York then Kikuli main bet
only seven declared
English Oak
Jumby
Pop Master
Tiber Flow
Witch Hunter
kikuli
Folgariacan not see a lot of horses who want to go forward early, Popmaster might but even he don’t normally over seven so could well get messy
I may well give English Oak another chance at this level as he may well be close up early and in a decent position.Good luck
I’m confident that Jumby can belt his place at the bottom of the market, and I’ve taken 20-1 at the moment
About time they downgraded this race. The City of York stakes next week is worth 283k to the winner compared to 70k here.
This whole field is basically made up of types who under-performed last time at group/listed level barring Jumby who was 3rd in a handicap.
Or just bin it altogether. Or keep it and nobody give a toss. Or make it 300k to the winner. That’ll show ’em.“can not see a lot of horses who want to go forward early, Popmaster might but even he don’t normally over seven so could well get messy
I may well give English Oak another chance at this level as he may well be close up early and in a decent position”.
———————Pretty much what i came on here to say nwalton.
With the first mentioned how I think the horse likes to be ridden and the second another possibility I have the runners down as:
Popmaster: Tracks Pace / Mid Div.
English Oak: Mid div / Tracks Pace.
Kikkuli: Mid-Div / Held Up.
Tiber Flow: Held Up / Dropped Out.
Jumby: Held Up / Dropped Out.
Folgaria: Held Up / Dropped Out.
Witch Hunter: Dropped Out / Held Up.Folgaria has made the running before when trained in Italy – so it’s possible – but even then was usually held up and can be slowly away anyway. Will probably be in behind.
Witch Hunter tried to race mid-div in the John Of Gaunt and disappointed. I’d be surprised if they try anything different than his normal tactics.
Jumby has never led in 30+ races, often slowly away and seems to like being held up. That said Buick is imo one of the best tactical riders around.
Tiber Flow won the perhaps overly strongly run John Of Gaunt on his penultimate start, coming from off the pace – and has been held up in his best performances to date. But has often been ridden from the middle of the pack when there doesn’t appear much pace on. If they do go slow – at his best possibly has more pace than his rivals. Placed in a Group 3 over 5f last year. So if not coming from too far back could be able to challenge late even if the pace is slowish. Or… If there does happen to be a good pace from the off – then Tiber Flow is the most likely to pick up the pieces.
Kikkuli may well be in the front three early, but can take a bit of a hold in some of his races, so I doubt Murphy will want to actually lead. Probably prefer at least one in front of him.
Popmaster hasn’t excactly led, but has been the most prominent and most often too… And from the same stable as English Oak…
English Oak has never been the fastest away from the stalls, but seems to settle pretty well. So it wouldn’t be a worry to me if racing alongside or near the leader. As long as he can find a way through in the first furlong to race handily, I’d expect him to be tracking his stable companion here.As so often the case, I am betting the race and not the horse.
When there is unlikely to be much pressure on the lead – and with them having something to find on this year’s form anyway: The percentage call is that Which Hunter, Jumby and Folgaria will struggle coming from off the pace.
Done English Oak @ an average of 4.22 and Tiber Flow 5.8 with saver on Popmaster 19.41 and partial saver Kikkuli 3.75… And a small LAY bet on Witch Hunter @ 6.6
My 100% Book:
5/2 English Oak 28.5%
5/2 Kikkuli 28.5%
7/2 Tiber Flow 22%
15/1 Witch Hunter 6.25%
15/1 Popmaster 6.25%
20/1 Jumby 4.75%
25/1 Folgaria 3.75%ie
English Oak + Tiber Flow together would imo be a merest fraction of odds-on. Better chance than the rest put together. Ditto for Kikkuli + Tiber Flow.
English Oak and Kikkuli combined would be around a fair 8/11.
Witch Hunter and Popmaster combined would be a fair 7/1 shot.
Whereas Witch Hunter on his own now is only currently available @ 11/2.
Witch Hunter imo has the same chance of winning as the current 18/1 shot Popmaster.
imo Which Hunter, Popmaster, Jumby and Folgaria’s combined chance is imo 21%. Which is 1% less than I make Tiber Flow on his own.…Discuss
Value Is EverythingThis looks a poor affair so taking a chance with Popmaster who has come good this time of year a couple of the last three seasons.
The things I want most in life are the things that I can't win.
I’ve topped up on Popmaster @ 33/1.
Will put an in-running LAY bet on too, at a fraction of those odds. Hoping he’ll still be leading coming into the final furlong.Value Is EverythingThanks.
“Will put an in-running LAY bet on too, at a fraction of those odds. Hoping he’ll still be leading coming into the final furlong”.
Having backed Popmaster at prices varying from 19 to 42, had Lays matched @ 12 and 10 too.
Value Is EverythingAlthough it gave me a fright, nice to see the last two Hungerford winners back to their bests, Witch Hunter and Jumby. I was so wrong about them but just (and only just) got away with it. Neither had really shown the same form since their Newbury victories, but back to their bests today.
Value Is Everything
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