- This topic has 220 replies, 40 voices, and was last updated 3 years, 5 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
There is something – am not saying it’s “illegal” – but something trainers need at least 5 weeks to do between runs in order to improve a horse… And this thing they do does not have lasting effects. ie To produce it again will need another 5+ weeks gap (run to run)… Unless the first run did not exert the horse. ie Unless it fell / unseated early or won easily in its first race.
Value Is EverythingIf its not illegal, lets hear both what it is, and why only Irish trainers are doing it GT.
BUY THE SUN
I said “it is not confined to the Irish”, TTC; just noticeable that more Irish trainers have found this secret than British trainers.
The secret is that they do something that needs at least 5 weeks between runs. I / punters don’t need to know what that something is.; for us the time off is key to understanding.
Value Is Everything…Punters should also keep a close eye on outsiders who’ve had a very long time off from these comparatively few yards when racing at the Cheltenham Festival or Grand National. Horses that have had time to may be had two or more “somethings” done to them between races
Value Is EverythingI think talking collectively about Irish trainers is too facile.
They are not in league with each other – they are in competition with each other.
It’s a dog eat dog game.
What is collectively clear, however, is they have the best Grade 1 NH horses and they do disproportionately well in Handicaps too, with some finding eye watering amounts of improvement too.
It happens in the UK too – but perhaps less frequently.
Better training methods, shrewder campaigning to keep horses unexposed over their big-race target trip and ground, “the juice,” this apparently undetectable drug you hear dark mutterings about?
Take your pick – the reality may be different with different trainers.
But many punters fell into the trap of thinking UK-trained horses had a chance in the race yesterday and Ireland had 11 of the first 12 home and filled the first five places.
Haydock Park has a race it calls a “Grand National Trial.”
Really? Is it? Any race calling itself that needs to be the other side of the Irish Sea here in 2021.
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Davies_
https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/
It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Was that 50/1 offered about the Irish having the first X amount home really true?
To be fair, take Cloth Cap out of the betting yesterday and the Irish had almost a monopoly of the fancied runners. So with CC disappointing it was always on the cards they’d dominate.
Value Is EverythingThe “collective” domination (from handicaps) including from smaller trainers is imo at least in part down to what used to be the two separate scales. Rating in GB would be equivalent to a lesser rating in Ireland (similar to centigrade and farenheit) – and it hasn’t been fixed.
Then you’ve got the numerical domination of both handicaps and grade 1 from the few top Irish trainers who seem to have found the “days off” key.
De Bromhead, Mullins, Elliott, Cromwell (possibly one or two more but the evidence for them isn’t as strong because they’ve obviously had fewer runners).
Value Is EverythingThat is fair comment, but even so Mister Malarky 12/1, Takingrisks 14/1, Kimberlite Candy 20/1, Potters Corner 22/1, Bristol De Mai 25/1 and Definitly Red 28/1 did not exactly fly the flag for British yards – they could not cope with the 12 Irish-trained horses who finished: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th, 11th, 13th and 15th.
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Davies_
https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/
It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Did they end up that price ID? Know I backed Bristol De Mai on betfair very late at quite a bit bigger and also Takingrisks at 30 before he massively shortened to 14 and yet drifted out to be freely available at bigger than 30 late. The others too were much higher on betfair at some stage. Suppose something to do with the 146% on course market which I didn’t take any notice of. Did notice the betfair market dominated (bar one) by the irish though.
Value Is EverythingNot sure what the betting turnover was like yesterday with the shops being closed but Mister Malarky looked like a classic case of a horse being backed by the name punters. There can be no other reason why this horse went off at 12/1 based on his form this season and the stable form. Some of their horses continue to run like drains including him.
Nicholls is one British trainer who seems to have found this key. Although does not currently have the Cheltenham ammunition. Best horse Cyrname injured and best right handed anyway.
The Grade 1 Irish dominance has been exaggerated a little by injury and/or temperament doubts of the best or potentially best British horses. By memory: Altior, Santini, Lostintranslation, Topofthegame etc.
Value Is EverythingNot going to Cheltenham with some of his better horses is a smart move by Nicholls. He knows he cannot compete with the big Irish battalions now and taking fresh horses to Aintree offers easier pickings. I wonder if Bravemansgame might have won on Friday if he had skipped Cheltenham and what turned out to be a futile attempt to beat Bob Olinger?
CAS,
“Not sure what the betting turnover was like yesterday with the shops being closed but Mister Malarky looked like a classic case of a horse being backed by the name punters. There can be no other reason why this horse went off at 12/1 based on his form this season and the stable form. Some of their horses continue to run like drains including him.”Mister Malarkey was actually better than ever earlier on in the season. Winning the Silver Cup at Ascot. Then ran poorly at Doncaster and they no doubt found something wrong with his wind. First start after a wind op’ ran a very good National Trial in the Close Brothers (old Racing Post Chase) at Kempton. Only 4 lengths third of 17 to Clondaw Castle. (winner subsequently ran 2nd to Clan Des Obeaux in Betfair Bowl).
I agree 12/1 was short but not because of his “form”. The 33/1 Kempton SP suggests he was thought likely to come on for that first start after a wind op’. Trouble yesterday might have been his wind again but imo more likely type of run style. If looking through Mister Malarkey’s form you’ll see his best results have been when prominent or very small fields (plenty of room)…
In a 40 runner field… Racing Post: “Midfield, hampered 4th, soon dropped to rear and pushed along”. There were probably too many prominent racers in yesterday’s field and could not get a favourable (for him) position, in midfield when hampered and then sulked.
If people did not have that “run style” theory I can see why he was backed.
Value Is EverythingThose were the SPs and, although the Grand National SP over round is routinely the biggest embarrassment of the year compared to the Win market at Betfair Exchange, and despite the fact the odds don’t give any horse a divine right to run well, it does suggest that British runners ran below even the relatively low market expectations.
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Davies_
https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/
It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Suppose something to do with the 146% on course market
The punters were not rushing to back anything on course
Blackbeard to conquer the World
Various bookmaker representatives have been saying plenty of punters backed the winner because of the Rachael Blackmore factor but they will be paying out with a smile.
You can afford to do that when you have bet to a 146% book.
It’s frequently been even worse than that….
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Davies_
https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/
It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.