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His methods don’t meet with everyone’s approval and he annoys the **** out of most of us at times but he is the nicest bloke you could meet and he should be admired not mocked. (though the cartoon is quite funny admittedly!)
I wouldn’t mock Gingershit if he wasn’t a good-humoured nice guy. He loves the attention anyway: there’s no such thing as bad publicity: it’s better to be looked all over than to be overlooked
The three stooges Ginger, Nathan and Drone have a long history of complementary if not complimentary mocking anyway. Long may that be the case
For the avoidance of doubt I find his methods admirable as the value approach and “scattergun” (
) backing of two or more overlays in a race largely mirrored my approach; though I can’t do with all this 0-100 points business and savers as for me this requires an impossibly accurate assessment of ‘true odds’. An unquantifiable edge isn’t too tricky to ascertain but exactly what that edge is is another matter. So Level Stakes on everything was my motto; or rather, the only method that worked for this non-godly gift to puntingBut we’ve been here before. GingerBianca’s method works, that’s all that matters
Isn’t it fab that so many feel uneasy about betting two or more in a race. Long may that be the case too
When some people give a compliment about someone’s racing knowdedge/betting, they’ve always got to accompany it with a personal knock down comment. Makes them feel better about themselves.
Am quite used to jealousy.
Value Is EverythingIf I could be assured of a steady stream of 1/3 shots I’d withdraw what’s left of my pension – mauled to death over decades while being overseen by ‘leading experts’ earning millions – and get stuck in.
If projections now are to be believed (and why should we, but still…) negative interest rates are on the way. Savings accounts are dead. You’ll probably need to pay just to have your money in a bank.
Yet, in racing we have an opportunity not only to invest but those investments are tax free. I said TAX FREE.
The daily war of the algos shows just how fearful bookmakers are of racing punters who know their stuff. We are at the closing end of a golden era for making money betting on racing. Okay, you need knowledge and dedication, but I don’t believe you need the elusive ‘edge’. I’d sacrifice any edge for a dose of discipline and nerve.
Within my lifetime (and if three score years and ten is right, I passed the furlong pole a while back) I expect to hear many a nostalgic tale of the good old days for betting on horses. The skilled few will still make a profit, but in the vast area of sports betting, getting a decent bet on racing will get so difficult, Ginger and his select band of brothers will wander away from the smoking remains in search of another Utopia.
The skilled few will still make a profit, but in the vast area of sports betting, getting a decent bet on racing will get so difficult, Ginger and his select band of brothers will wander away from the smoking remains in search of another Utopia.
Difficult enough to get a bet on with bookies how it is now Joe.
Thank – the bloke who does not exist – for exchanges!Value Is EverythingI am tending to stick to the big meetings only this flat season and did well at Royal Ascot, The Newmarket July meeting and Glorious Goodwood.
These days I think this should be taken as sound advice for anyone trying to make a profit. It requires some patience but it is the one real chance punters have of sticking two fingers up to the fixture list. If you do enough study for the ‘festivals’ it will enable you to catch up on plenty of the racing that you might have missed.
The bookmakers will continue to trap the recreational punter but as more serious punters desert the day-to-day dross I suspect these festivals will become increasingly key to their overall profits. Although very short prices are not my bag it was particularly pleasing to see them take a hammering at Goodwood.
There’s not too many have made odds on chances profitable over the long term Joe
Indeed, Tim. I normally bet on the other end of the scale, but would be perfectly happy betting numerous horses in one race and accepting the equivalent of 1/3 in a proven ‘system’.
We veteran punters scoff at long odds-on chances, but if you met a non-punter in the street and said ‘I’m going into that betting shop. If you want to give me thirty quid I’ll bring you forty back out in a couple of minutes’, how happy would he be? I’m over-simplifying, I know, but with the intention of trying to bring perspective.
Ginger says he actually achieves odds-against to his multiple bets, and I’ve no reason to doubt him.
Think about that. It’s an astonishing accomplishment in the long term. It’s walking talking alchemy paid out in pound notes.
Difficult enough to get a bet on with bookies how it is now Joe.
Thank – the bloke who does not exist – for exchanges![/quote]
But how long will exchanges last in a meaningful way, Ginger? I remember when they first got a foothold, watching the sharks gobble up the fish. It didn’t take stunning foresight to conclude that once the fish were all gone it would be just sharks circling each other. And that’s the way it has gone and is still going from what I can see.
The true benefit of betting with the bookies is that you have access to plenty of mug money to fund your winnings. The bookies are now figuring out ways to keep that mug money for themselves, banishing the wise guys exclusively to the exchanges. What will you do there when everyone approaches each race with your skill and experience and they all want to bet the same horses?
But how long will exchanges last in a meaningful way, Ginger? I remember when they first got a foothold, watching the sharks gobble up the fish. It didn’t take stunning foresight to conclude that once the fish were all gone it would be just sharks circling each other. And that’s the way it has gone and is still going from what I can see.
The true benefit of betting with the bookies is that you have access to plenty of mug money to fund your winnings. The bookies are now figuring out ways to keep that mug money for themselves, banishing the wise guys exclusively to the exchanges. What will you do there when everyone approaches each race with your skill and experience and they all want to bet the same horses?
Do think there’s still plenty of fish on the exchanges Joe, and that should continue as the very best value is often on exchanges. Bookmakers do their best to get rid of sharks/wise guys, but imo bookies are more likely the ones with a limited shelf life.
Certainly don’t want too many approaching races my way, which is the reason why I deleted a lot of stuff on this thread. However (in theory) if more people back one horse then although that one won’t be value (shorter price) other horses will be bigger prices. Value horse/s won’t be the same as they are now, but should still be able to identify value.
It’s like Chester:
Punters believe they should back low numbers because it is low numbers that have an advantage. But everyone knows it, including bookmakers and Laying exchange punters.
So the time will come (or has it already? ) when it is value to back “poorly” drawn horses – because although they have a “disadvantage” it will not be as big as the market indicates.Same for any aspect of form study. Unlike many years ago, “going” rarely has a bearing on who I make value any more; although stamina/speed does.
Time may come when “trainers in form” will be over-bet or no longer be an edge. Although because TIF is an inexact science on which a lot of xxxx is talked… it may take longer for this particular edge to disappear.
Value Is EverythingTrainers who are expert at disguising a horse’s ability, these are the chaps we need to identify.
Most horses run at 20% below their best in most races, so that renders the form book redundant, I suggest you take them to your nearest biofuel plant for incineration. All you should concern yourselves with is identifying trainers that are expert at disguising a horse’s ability, these are the chaps who regularly stuff your 2/1 form horses leaving you scratching your heads wondering ”Where did that come from”, we’ve all done it, repeatedly.
This is why I rarely bet handicaps – far too complicated and unpredictable. Stick to the races where you know they are trying.
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agree with that Joni,i only back in pattern races and high class handicaps.I can only admire (and i have been around a fair while)people who make it pay on low grade racing,i for one would have gone under years ago trying to make it worthwhile.
agree with that Joni,i only back in pattern races and high class handicaps.I can only admire (and i have been around a fair while)people who make it pay on low grade racing,i for one would have gone under years ago trying to make it worthwhile.
Remember a while ago Mike (Betlarge) starting an excellent thread, arguing lesser quality handicaps are just as reliable. He obviously does well in the lower grade. I believe he said they produce the same number of favourites winning. So it might be something more in the mind.
imo There is more skulduggery going on in the lesser grades, but the amount is exaggerated. It’s just – for me – they are far more difficult to work out. One of the reasons horses are in that grade in the first place is their temperament – seemingly more inconsistent and downing tools from time to time… And for connections to make a profit with Class 6 prizemoney, they need to bet. So I can see why more horses are laid out for a certain race. SP favs might do just as well, but is that because the market gets to know?
With more horses backed in to favourite? Seems a grade for betting if you’re in the know.There’s also the point of specialisation. Doubt if anyone can be equally as good at all types of racing. Best to keep to what you’re good at.
These days I myself prefer Class 4 and 3 to Class 2 handicaps on the flat. Too many horses, one big handicap often takes as long as working out three Conditions races on a Saturday. You win just as much on a 6/1 shot in a Conditions race as a 6/1 handicapper. Enough Conditions races on most Saturdays for me to ignore handicaps completely.
Value Is Everything
) backing of two or more overlays in a race largely mirrored my approach; though I can’t do with all this 0-100 points business and savers as for me this requires an impossibly accurate assessment of ‘true odds’. An unquantifiable edge isn’t too tricky to ascertain but exactly what that edge is is another matter. So Level Stakes on everything was my motto; or rather, the only method that worked for this non-godly gift to punting
) when it is value to back “poorly” drawn horses – because although they have a “disadvantage” it will not be as big as the market indicates.
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