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UK races only.
Identify all the top, joint-top rated horses using HRB STANDARD ratings.
Multiply each horse’s rating by 100 and divide by the value of today’s race to establish the VR (value rating)
e.g. Rating 208 divided by £4250 = VR £4.89When this has been done for all the top, joint-top rateds sort the VRs in descending order.
The four horses at the top of the list are the selections for the day and the VR figure is the stake each selection will carry.
Today’s selections are shown below with the stake in brackets.
Wolv 5.30 Fantasy Fighter (£7.22)
Wolv 7.00 Il Portico (£10.09)
Wolv 8.30 Emiratesdotcom ((£12.56)
Wolv 9.00 Pipers Piping (12.63)I will record the profit/loss figures for the system using Betfair SP (-5% comm.).
Not for system purposes but purely for information the highest rated on VR figures at the day’s other meetings are listed below.
Donc 4.55 Pendragon (£2.40)
Sand 5.05 Beaumonts Party (£5.04)
Ches 5.50 Gemmas Delight (£5.63)Hi there
Discretedata
,
Thanks for posting a somewhat different system to the norm. I am sure it will raise a few eyebrows and perhaps a few questions as well.
Is this something you have tried and tested or a new born creation?
I hope it goes well and will watch with interest, good luck.
Billy's Outback Shack
Nathan Hughes & billion – thanks for your comments.
In answer to your question billion, the ‘system’ has been subjected to intensive testing. For a period of two days to be precise!
Eyebrows being raised I can cope with but I hope the thread doesn’t raise too many questions as I’m not sure I’ll be able to answer them all!
However, to be serious for a moment, yes it’s very much a new born creation but one that I feel may have some promise in the longer term.
Time will tell.
Results from yesterday….
Wolv 5.30 Fantasy Fighter (£7.22)
Wolv 7.00 Il Portico (£10.09) LOST
Wolv 8.30 Emiratesdotcom ((£12.56)Wolv 9.00 Pipers Piping (12.63)
+ £106.04 on the day to suggested stakes.
Today’s selections are shown below together with stakes in brackets.
Kemp 5.30 Duke Of Rainford (£10.50)
Kemp 6.30 Josrs Magic (£9.72)
Kemp 8.00 True To Form (£12.03)
Kemp 8.30 Snowberry Hill ((£11.11)Best of the rest, none from three yesterday, for info only.
Ches 5.55 Dazakhee (£5.07)
Donc 4.25 My Single Malt (£2.68)
Good 5.50 Boogie Waltzer (£6.05)
Sand 5.05 Magic Jack (£4.35)Great start, discretedata….. a refreshingly different approach to systematic betting which is very welcome in Ward 7.
Hopefully, you’ll participate in Bob Rolf’s 4pp competition in which Nathan and Billion are doing very well while I am a mere also-ran (mind you, I blame the medication).
Matron has promised us all a weekend pass if one of us wins it so we’re relying on you
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UK races only.
Identify all the top, joint-top rated horses using HRB STANDARD ratings.
Multiply each horse’s rating by 100 and divide by the value of today’s race to establish the
VR
(value rating)
e.g. Rating 208 divided by £4250 = VR £4.89
When this has been done for all the top, joint-top rateds sort the VRs in descending order.
The four horses at the top of the list are the selections for the day and the VR figure is the stake each selection will carry.
Today’s selections are shown below with the stake in brackets.
Wolv 5.30 Fantasy Fighter (£7.22)
Wolv 7.00 Il Portico (£10.09)
Wolv 8.30 Emiratesdotcom ((£12.56)
Wolv 9.00 Pipers Piping (12.63)I will record the profit/loss figures for the system using Betfair SP (-5% comm.).
Not for system purposes but purely for information the highest rated on VR figures at the day’s other meetings are listed below.
Donc 4.55 Pendragon (£2.40)
Sand 5.05 Beaumonts Party (£5.04)
Ches 5.50 Gemmas Delight (£5.63)I am about to look like a complete mutton-head
discretedata
but then again that is quite gentle compared to some of the things Mrs billion call me.
I have tried to work this out for myself, I like doing things you see, and prefer doing so rather than relying on other more clever and sophisticated folk but in a nut-shell I could not do it
Question number one is the HRB Standard Rating the same as the OR given on the race cards of the RP or ATR web site?
I am sure it is not because I was getting results such as 22p. Can you explain please.
Question number two is all about race value. Different papers print different figures, so are you talking about TOTAL race value or value to the winner?
If I do manage to get passed questions one and two perhaps you will be kind enough to explain the order of descent. Looking at your Wolverhampton illustration it shows the lowest stake at the top and then increases on the descent.
I am not about to question your powers of decription because no other forum member has asked for clarification and so it must be an age thing when old mutton-heads like me find learning takes more time but once the penny drops I will be most grateful for your indulgence.
Billy's Outback Shack
billion
I’ll answer your supplementary question first if I may.
The Wolverhampton selections you refer to were shown in chronological order. I thought presenting the selections in this way might be more convenient for anyone viewing them, that’s all.
Re. Question 1.
No, the HRB Standard Rating is not the same as the OR. Please look here http://www.horseracebase.com/ratingsmachineusermanagement.php for more information.
Regarding your 22p example, although you weren’t using HRB figures the principle for calculating the VR is the same. For instance say you had two horses both rated 110. Horse A was running in a £3000 race, Horse B in a £125,000 race. The VR calculations would be as follows.
Horse A (110*100)/£3000 = £3.67
Horse B (110*100)/£125,000 = £0.09So although the horses are similarly rated the horse running in the lower value race is the better betting proposition. That’s my theory anyway. Although yesterday’s results go some way to disproving it!
By the way, there’s no reason why the ratings from the Racing Post racecards, or something like Daily Mail Formcast or Daily Mirror Spotform ratings can’t be used. I use HRB ratings because you can download them in spreadsheet form which saves a great deal of time.
Re. Question 2.
I’m talking about value to the winner, also sometimes shown as Penalty Value.
I hope I’ve answered you questions fully but if not please don’t hesitate to ask.
Yesterday’s results not very inspiring but it’s still early days.
Kemp 5.30 Duke Of Rainford (£10.50)
LOST
Kemp 6.00 Josrs Magic (£9.72)
LOST
Kemp 8.00 True To Form (£12.03)
Kemp 8.30 Snowberry Hill ((£11.11)
LOST
Best of the rest, none from three yesterday, for info only.
Ches 5.55 Dazakhee (£5.07)
LOST
Donc 4.25 My Single Malt (£2.68)
LOST
Good 5.50 Boogie Waltzer (£6.05)
Non-runner
Sand 5.05 Magic Jack (£4.35)
LOST
Running total to suggested stakes: +£79.62
Sunday’s system selections and the rather optimistically titled ‘best of the rest’ horses are shown below.
Newc 3.00 Efistorm (£10.34)
Newc 4.10 Regimental (£6.80)
Good 4.55 Yemeni Princess (£5.66)
Ffos 5.05 Kinigi (£9.67)Best of the rest,
Good 2.00 Satwa Moon (£5.48)
Good 3.10 Finest Reserve (£5.10)
Good 4.20 Tagula Night (£5.35)
Good 5.3 Space Station (£5.25)Thanks for your reply
Descretedata
, I will take the answers back to the drawing board and see how I get on.
Sorry you had a bad day yesterday but in some sort of perverse way it is a consolation to know I was not alone.
Billy's Outback Shack
I have got the hang of this now
Discretedata
and found it quite simple, so thanks for your help.
My guess is this, it is a risk (stake) assessment for the best thought of horse in the race.
I went to the Racing Post and used the OR as HRB is not available to the non subscriber and felt a reasonable place to begin. I then crossed ref. with your own selections and was very surprised at the difference between the stakes. The selections will vary because different ratings and this was my results: –
3.00 Newc. EFISTON 4.16
Non runner
5.05 F/L ABILITY N DELIVERY 2.93
LOST
5.30 G/W SAILORMAN 2.34
LOST
3.10 G/W MUJOOD 2.18
WON 16/1
If Only I had checked this out sooner but nevertheless what a result and a feather in the cap of the OR.
Observation. I see no reason once there is a stake figure that it cannot be multiplied or divided in accord with your own normal risk stake providing it remains constant. £2.18 is a figure I will be happy with but if it falls a lot below the individual’s norm why not multiply by 5 or 10 etc. to suit the person who will normally bet £5 or £10 etc.
Billy's Outback Shack
Hi Billion
http://www.horseracebase.com/horse-racing-today.php
You can get the HRB figures for eah race by using the
above link without being a subscriber.All the best
Winnersforu
Nice tweak billion using the OR
Not a good day for the system selections.
Newc 3.00 Efistorm (£10.34)
Non-runner
Newc 4.10 Regimental (£6.80)
LOST
Good 4.55 Yemeni Princess (£5.66)
LOST
Ffos 5.05 Kinigi (£9.67)
Non-runner
Running total: + £67.16
‘Best of the rest’ fared better!
Good 2.00 Satwa Moon (£5.48)
LOST
Good 3.10 Finest Reserve (£5.10)
LOST
Good 4.20 Tagula Night (£5.35)
Good 5.30 Space Station (£5.25)
Today’s system selections.
Bri 3.30 Noah Jameel (£11.24)
Red 3.40 Tomocracy (£11.14)
Bri 4.00 New Code (£10.93)
Muss 5.20 Eijaaz (£12.04)‘morning Chaps,
Found my way into the ratings now, thanks for your help.
This site is new to me so can anyone give me their thoughts regarding how good they are thought to be etc.
With the good result yesterday I thought it worth while running through the OR again today: –
Muss. 3.50 FREEMAN (4.37) Odds on
Muss 5.20 EDAS (3.95) 11/1
Muss. 5.50 MAID OF MEFT (3.95) 13/2
RED. 3.40 RA JUNIOR (3.93) 11/2Sorry about this
discretedate
and will not hi-jack your thread anymore but just thought members may like to see if an alternative rating could work.
Billy's Outback Shack
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