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Only 7 days to go now and this should be a great morning (for us!) of racing.
Early prices are as follows…
HONG KONG CUP – 14th Dec 4am GMT
Viva Pataca 9-4
Eagle Mountain 5-2
Lush Lashes 7-2
Linngari 10-1
Loup Breton 10-1
Balius 14-1
Out Of Control 14-1
Trincot 20-1
Hawkes Bay 50-1
Estejo 50-1
Viva Macau 66-1
Sight Winner 66-1HONG KONG MILE – 14th Dec 5am GMT
Kip Deville 7-2
Godd Ba Ba 4-1
Super Hornet 6-1
Armada 6-1
Natagora 8-1
Egyptian Ra 8-1
Pressing 9-1
Spirito Del Vento 12-1
Major Cadeaux 20-1
Laa Rayb 20-1
Awesome Gem 25-1
Able One 33-1
Joy And Fun 50-1HONG KONG VASE – 14th Dec 6am GMT
Doctor Dino 11-4
Packing Winner 9-2
Muhannak 5-1
Buccelati 6-1
Duoro Valley 12-1
Mores Wells 12-1
Purple Moon 14-1
The Bogberry 16-1
Jaguar Mail 16-1
JackpotDelight 20-1
Mourilyan 20-1
Poseidon Adventure 20-1
Ambitious General 33-1HONG KONG SPRINT – 14th Dec 07am GMT
Marchand D’Or 9-4
Apache Cat 5-2
Mythical Flight 8-1
Sunny Power 9-1
Enthused 10-1
Greeen Birdie 14-1
Laurel Guerreiro 16-1
Moorhouse Lad 20-1
Waikato 20-1
Abbadjinn 25-1
Tosho Courage 25-1
Star Crowned 25-1
Inspiration 100-1In the opening race, the Cup, Eagle Mountain looks to build on a superb run in the Breeders Cup Turf – this race is of course 2 furlongs shorter than the BCT and I feel this could suit Eagle Mountain down to a tee. Eagle Mountain looks very much the horse to beat here and gets my nod over the slightly over-raced Lush Lashes. Linngari, if able to put in another decent performance, may look slightly over priced at 10-1 on the day.
As for the Mile, highly rated American miler Kip Deville travels the long distance to compete in this presitgious race. Connections state him to be in great form and health and are hoping for a very big run on Sunday. However, the selections for me are the largely overpriced Major Cadeaux and Laa Rayb. Major Cadeaux is ever improving over the mile distance and has only found some very decent milers in the shape of Henrythenavigator, Ravens Pass and Tamauyz better in his last few runnings over the distance.
Laa Rayb is a credit to Mark Johnston’s stable this year and has already put in decent performance over this distance. If Laa Rayb can get back to a similar level as his August performance at Deauville he should run a very big race. Both horses are ridiculously overpriced at 20’s.
Natgora may come back well nice and fresh and wont disgrace herself here and the same goes for Pressing and we most definitely cannot write off the defending champion Good Ba Ba. The race I’m most looking forward to.
Next up – the Vase. A lot of interesting runners in this including the defending champion, Doctor Dino. I’m a big admirer of Doctor Dino but have been slightly disappointed with Dino’s performances this year. He really shouldve beaten Getaway last time out and recent lacklustre performances just turn me off of him for this. He may have been warming up for another tint at this in his last few runs but I’m not willing to take that chance at 11/4. Instead, I’ll stick with Purple Moon once again – PM is slowly but surely improving with every run and if ridden closer to the front that PM was ridden in the Japan Cup then I see no reason why Purple Moon cannot win this.
More interesting for me though is how Muhannak will run. Is Muhannak a global middle distance multi champion in the making for the Beckett stable? We shall see.
Finally – the Sprint! Marchand D’or has been the best he ever has been this season and comes into this race with five group 1 wins under his saddle. I’ve got Marchand down as the banker of the meeting for me but am well aware of the slightly bigger odds threat Moorhouse Lad could pose if he turns up in Hong Kong next Sunday. If the ground comes up just that little bit too firm for MD then Moorhouse Lad, or Aussie raider Apache Cat who would love firm ground, could capitalise. The others are reasonably unkown to me and unless I get a chance to read up on them a little more before Sunday i’ll be preferring to stick to my well-known guns here.
Apologies if the write up here is a bit all over the place – 1am writing during a work break is a nightmare!
I’ll write something sharper and to the point.
These are preliminary thoughts, might change but unlikely.
The locals will sweep the quarter.
Caspar Fownes is on fire. I don’t know if he’s been winless in any meeting this season. Jackpot Delight canters in the Vase and Green Birdie is better than the 12% chance of winning for the Sprint.
Armada has always been above Good Ba Ba, but he’s battled injury for awhile. Was favourite for this race two years ago with little top-class form.
And the only danger to Viva Pataca would have been one Archipenko. Nevermind.
Marchand D’or – personally? Not zippy enough for mine.
Nothing wrong with a bit of rambling but your "spotlights" for those races show an utter disregard for the australasian contingent. Very tough to make money in these type of races when ignoring more than half the runners due to lack of knowledge.
Fair play, Brendan.
You’re right I dont have an amazing knowledge of the Aussie runners but have tried to give my opinion on the runners I know quite a bit about and who I feel are very strong horses.
Who out of the Australian attack would you say are the ones to watch this weekend?
I seem to remember reading last year that Good Ba Baa is pretty special. Also, some of Eagle Mountain’s form is top class.
Sorry for starting other thread Halfwaytoheaven – didn’t notice this until too late.
Watched most of the foreigners working out this morning with exception of Eagle Mountain and Mythical Flight who stayed in their stables having worked well on Tuesday.
Probably the most visually impressive was Kip Deville who did a great piece of work on the turf late on in the morning. I think his second in the Breeders’ Cup mile on similar ground makes him the pick in the Mile and he was the first horse to arrive here – giving himself plenty of time to acclimatize. With Good Ba Ba making the market here Dutrow’s challenger would be my pick at local prices.
On form I like the Japanese Super Hornet – based on his close up second in the Mile Championship although I’m not getting good vibes from Japanese pundits.
Apache Cat was another one who worked on the turf and this horse seemed to handle the bend well. I liked the look of him and think – given Marchand d’Or’s ordinary form in the race last year – that he will take the beating over this 6 furlongs although the draw on Thursday will be key.
HKJC have produced a form guide which may be available on their site. Ploughing through it to find a local sprinter to hold up their great record in the Sprint. Perhaps an each way on Sunny Power IF Prebble can keep him closer to the pace than when he ran a close second in the Sprint Trial.
More tomorrow after the draw.
On form I like the Japanese Super Hornet – based on his close up second in the Mile Championship although I’m not getting good vibes from Japanese pundits.
‘He is better prepared than I expected without much loss of weight. We had a workout on the turf, and I instructed the rider to give him a kick only in front of the goal to let him know that the race is approaching.’ (Mr Yahagi, trainer of Super Hornet)
Super Hornet beat Vodka in a G2(1800m) before the mile Championship:
http://jp.youtube.com/watch?v=M_BCj0oHXeU
Vodka #3; Super Hornet #2 (RPR:124)But I have a doubt of his young jockey (13th among the JRA jockeys, as of 10th Dec, and I think this is the first race abroad for him)
That form Super Hornet has with Vodka did draw my attention. Didnt realise the Japanese pundits werent keen on him though which cant be a good sign..
Great to hear that youre out there for the festival Adrian, it’s always good to get a perspective from someone who’s actually there whilst we cant actually make it
My inexperience with the Hong Kong Festival probably shows in the fact that I didnt realise there was a bend on the sprint race. The way you spoke about Apache Cat’s workout I get there impression there is indeed a bend? I’d be wary of backing Marchand D’Or then as I havent seen much of him on a bend sprint. May have to go trawling through some of his replays….
The more the week goes on I feel Eagle Mountain must be one of the bets of the weekend. De Kock states that EM could be better than Archipenko and that alone is giving me even more confidence that he can beat Viva Pataca.
Yes the 6 furlong sprint is round the bend.
Here are some of reactions of connections after this morning’s barrier draw:
Cathay Pacific Hong Kong Vase
Richard Gibson – gate 12 – Doctor Dino." I wouldn’t have picked that one, it leaves the jockey less tactical options."
Olivier Peslier -Doctor Dino- "I’m less concerned. I think the pace will be slow, as there is no obvious frontrunner, and it may be a help to be drawn on the outside. Anyway number 12 is my lucky number. I’m also not too worried that he didn’t run so well last time in Canada. When he was younger, he disappointed at Vichy and it was in a much lower class race than this."
Ralph Beckett – Muhannak -gate 4: " That’s good, he can watch everything that’s going on around him."
Sarah Cumani – Purple Moon – gate 6 – "Thank goodness Luca has got Purple Moon a good draw at last."
Herman Brown – Mourilyan – gate 1 – "The draw is unimportant, what he needs is a bit of racing luck. I expect he’ll be three-back along the rails and if he gets luck he’ll be hard to beat."
Douglas Whyte – Packing Winner – gate 7 – " The draw’s okay. He’s a versatile horse.
If no one else seriously wants to take it up, I’d be happy to go forward."
Andreas Suborics – Poseidon Adventure – gate 3 – "He’ll race from midfield as he can take some time to find his rhythm from the start."
Cathay Pacific Hong Kong Sprint
Managing owner Paul Radford – Apache Cat – gate 2 – "Maybe three or four would have been even better as he does like some room but trust me I am delighted with barrier two."
Freddy Head – Marchand D’Or – gate 4 – "That is a good draw. I am not worried about the bend and the ground should not be too fast."
Jim Crowley – Moorhouse Lad – gate 1 – "I’d rather be there than out wide. He’s quick out of the gate and I’d like to be on the lead if I can."
John Size – Enthused – gate 13 – "That’s a disaster. He’s in great form and he keeps improving every time he goes to the races but he could have done with better luck with the barrier."
Francis Lui – Sunny Power – gate 12 – "Of course the draw is not ideal. We might go forward from there. He needs to break well."
Caspar Fownes – Green Birdie – gate 5 – "Ideal slot. He’ll be able to truck in along behind the speed and let down in the straight with a gap."
Cathay Pacific Hong Kong Mile
Tony Cruz – Egyptian Ra – gate 13 – " We were going to go forward anyway, and that’s made our mind up for us."
Andreas Schutz – Good Ba Ba – gate 7 – "It’s a similar middle gate as when he won last year so he should get a sweet run."
Pascal Bary – Natagora – gate 10 – " I’ve just arrived this morning, and the filly appears very well. I’m not over concerned about the draw.
Douglas Whyte – Armada – gate 4 – " I was hoping for a low draw, so I’m really chuffed with that. He should get his chance from there, so fingers crossed everything goes well. John [Size, trainer] will have him right, the man’s a genius."
Richard Hannon Jr – Major Cadeaux – gate 1 – " He’s a hold up horse, so we’ll need luck in running, but it’s a good place to be."
Yoshito Yahagi – Super Hornet – gate 2 – "As he’s got an inside gate, we won’t hesitate to push forward, as I don’t want him to get trapped on the rail. But I hope he’ll still produce his usual late kick."
John Moore – Able One – gate 5 – "He should be able to get a good position from there. He’s an international Gr.1 winner, so this holds no fears for him."
Cathay Pacific Hong Kong Cup
Mike De Kock – Eagle Mountain – gate 5 – "Happy with that, it’s a good slot, but he’s a versatile horse anyway. He’s as fit as a fiddle and as good as I’ve ever had him."
Carlos Laffon-Parias – Balius – gate 13 – "Not worried, he’s not going to be on the lead anyway."
Jim Bolger – Lush Lashes – gate 10- " It’s not ideal, but I’ll go there with no pre-conceived ideas. There’s no point in having a fixed plan. We’ll leave it to Kevin [Manning, jockey]"
John Moore – Viva Pataca – gate 6 "It’s an ideal gate which leaves lots of options for Darren [Beadman, jockey]. We’ve got the favourite [Eagle Mountain] drawn inside us, which is also a plus. I’ve never had him better – third time lucky, I hope."
Olivier Peslier – Artiste Royal – gate 2 – " It’s a good draw and a nice ride to pick up. I rode this horse to win when he was in France and I won on his mother too."
Just a word of warning:
Dr C M Riggs, Head of Veterinary Clinical Services, has this morning advised the Stewards the following horses, which are declared runners in the Cathay Pacific Hong Kong Race Meeting to be held at Sha Tin this Sunday 14 December 2008, have shown mild signs of stress from travelling to Hong Kong:-
AWESOME GEM – The Cathay Pacific Hong Kong Mile
MOORHOUSE LAD – The Cathay Pacific Hong Kong Sprint
ABBADJINN – The Cathay Pacific Hong Kong SprintDr Riggs said all these horses appear well in themselves and will continue to be monitored in the lead up to their respective races. He said at this stage he is of the opinion all three horses are suitable to race.
Thanks for sharing that info. Do you know when the local betting pools open and also has there been any news concerning Mythical Flight.
Mythical Flight got very worked up in the warm up menage before exercise on Thursday getting himself into a real sweat. He is a big, burly light chestnut not very pleasing on the eye but all power.
I spoke to Mike de Kock and Sean Tarry about it and they said that he is a real sprinter (in the National Currency style) who only knows one way of training – standing quietly in the stable or going flat out on the track – and doesn’t like the hassle of trotting, slow cantering etc.
I think long term he wil be a force to be reckoned with, however may be this time (and only my guess) he could need the run as hasn’t started since May.
Mike’s new sprinter – J J The Jet Plane could be a serious tool as well but he is off to Dubai (from England) today so we’ll hopefully see him in UK next Summer.
Well appreciated. National Currency, now there’s a blast from the past. Was really looking forward to him serving it up to Silent Witness, before his unfortunate demise.
Based on your statement above I am inclined to increase my outlay on MF. Not the biggest expert on SA racing but Sean Tarry strikes me as a guy who is serious business when it comes to training race horses. Will definitely be looking out for JJ as well. Thanks again.
Below are the track notes compiled by my colleagues after Friday’s work – the last serious hit outs for most.
The only thing I can add (for Brendan’s benefit) is that Kevin Shea rode Mythical Flight today and he was much more relaxed. They kept him well away from the other horses and he even went for a paddock school after exercise without getting sweaty.
I had lunch with Sean today and he said that this horse is the real deal – better than National Colour and he is looking at the King’s Stand/Nunthorpe double for him next year.
Friday :
A spectacularly good gallop on the dirt on Friday morning made it clear that Doctor Dino will not relinquish his Cathay Pacific Hong Kong Vase crown without an almighty tussle.Partnered by his regular work rider Eric Gandon, Doctor Dino stretched over the final 400m in 21.7 seconds and asked of his reaction, trainer Richard Gibson gave the assembled press corps the thumbs up.
Eagle Mountain, likely to start second favourite in the Cathay Pacific Hong Kong Cup, cantered on the dirt and returned to the stables with a glowing report from his jockey.
"He’s flying. He’s got fresh legs and he will run a big race for sure," Kevin Shea said.
Shea was also on board his Cathay Pacific Hong Kong Sprint mount, Mythical Flight, in a 22.5-second hit-out on the same surface but was a little less effusive about his prospects.
"The work was okay. I just think this horse is better over 1000m. The one thing in the favour is that he will like the fast ground."
British champion jockey Ryan Moore who partners Sir Michael Stoute’s Linngari in the Cup gently breezed his mount on the all-weather in a final split and was perfectly pleased with the outcome.
"He was very good today. The ground might be a little faster than ideal but hopefully we will get into the frame. There are some very good horses in this race.’
Runner-up at this course and distance in the Audemars Piguet QEII Cup last April, Balius worked on the turf under Gerald Mosse, his rider in the Cup.
His regular work rider Maurice Richard confirmed his wellbeing saying "I think he’s in the same form as back in April" as he watched a replay of the Gr.1 feature at the International Handicappers’ Conference.
Pat Smullen was reunited with Muhannak, his Breeders’ Cup Marathon winner, in a half-speed gallop on the turf and the jockey professed himself content with the piece of work.
"He is in the same form now as he was when he won in California. He floated along the ground there. It’s not really true to say that he’s a horse for synthetic surfaces only because he wants good ground and I couldn’t complain with the track here," he said.
This race is probably stronger than the Breeders’ Cup but he’s an improving horse and you always have a chance with a horse like that."
"I’ll probably ride him a little quieter than in America around midfield somewhere and I hope there is some pace on."
Trainer Ralph Beckett isn’t as worried about the pace in the race for Muhannak.
"With his good draw in four we can judge the pace and watch. If there is no pace we will be handy and if they do go quickly we will slot in. He is versatile and easy to position," he said.
"The main thing today was the way he adapted to the grass. I was thrilled with the way he moved and don’t think our worries about the grass are justified. We just need luck in running and Doctor Dino looks the one we have to worry about."
Mores Wells (jockey Declan McDonogh on board), another Vase runner from Europe, worked on the turf track alongside his Japanese rival Jaguar Mail (jockey Mick Kinane on board) in a half-speed gallop.
Trainer Kevin Prendergast was pleased with the progress of the former and said he had settled in well to his new environment.
"He has a fair chance if he can run up to his form when third to New Approach in the [Irish] Champion Stakes. I’d scratch his last run because the ground was bottomless that day and he had a touch of a virus after," the veteran Irish handler said.
Of Jaguar Mail, Masanori Watanabe, travelling head-lad to trainer Noriyuki Hori said: "The trainer wanted the horse alongside Mores Wells today and he just galloped steadily only in final stage as he had a fast breeze at Miho last week. He’s in top form."
Alain de Royer-Dupre, trainer of The Bogberry, watched the three-year-old canter easily and admitted that he was still on a learning curve with the recent acquisition to his yard.
"I suppose on what he has done in Ireland he might find the ground a bit fast but he will be a nice horse for next year in France. He worked very well twice in Chantilly last week so it’s been just a case of keeping him active here," he said.
British Mile hope Major Cadeaux teamed up with his big-race jockey, Richard Hughes, for the first time. The horse did a steady piece on the bridle and the Hannon camp are pleased with the horse’s wellbeing.
Richard Hannon Jr said: "He hasn’t done a lot since he has come out here as he is plenty fit enough and we want to reserve his talent for Sunday. The draw has allowed us to sit in behind on the rail and go the fastest route. I hope when we reach the straight the gaps will come."
Moorhouse Lad worked for 400m in 24.2 seconds on the all weather circuit and his trainer Brian Smart is hopeful his great draw in slot one will give the necessary aid for this 1000-metre specialist.
Smart said: "The good barrier position is a help. He has done a nice blow today and I hope Jim [Crowley, jockey] will get a good lead and conserve enough to have a kick at the end."
Michael Jarvis was out for a first look at his Mile contender Pressing who had race jockey Neil Callan aboard as he completed his preparations for Sunday’s test. Pressing posted a relatively easy work going the final 400m in an undemanding 26.5 seconds, but Jarvis is happy with his horse. " Everything is fine with him, he’s been impressive in his last two starts, particularly in Turkey when he beat a quality field in a good time. I really think a mile is his best trip, although he’s won at 2000m against weaker opposition. Hopefully he’ll jump out, get a handy position and produce his finishing kick."
Mark Johnston was also at Sha Tin for the first time to supervise fellow British Mile hope Laa Rayb. "The horse is well. He’s not the best mover in the world, particularly when compared with some of the horses on show out here this week, but everything has gone well with his preparation, his weight is good and he’s eating well. It’s a competitive Mile, but you’d expect that out here, there are no easy races," he said.
The top US miler Kip Deville was last of the international horses out for a canter on the all weather track and with regular work rider Michelle Nevin on board again. The 2007 Breeders’ Cup Mile winner has looked in fine fettle all week and today was no different.
Herman Brown is expecting a big run in the Vase from Mourilyan, who had his jockey Ryan Moore on board for a final workout on the all weather track this morning.
"He was unlucky in his last run in Canada, where he should have finished second or third and he did finish alongside Doctor Dino. He’s fresh and I think he’ll run well. This race is not beyond him. My only concern is that he’d probably be better on a stiffer track, and I hope there’s an honest pace."
Andrew Balding responded literally when asked for the last word on Vase runner Buccellati. "Happy," he said before expanding a little further: "he’s put some weight on in the last few days and is in good shape."
Apache Cat cantered on the all weather and again turned heads as he looks to be blooming. "It’s all good. Everything’s gone well with him. We just had a little pace work for him this morning and he pulled up well," trainer Greg Eurell said.
One of the chief Hong Kong hopes for keeping the Sprint at home for the seventh straight year is Sunny Power, drawn in 12, for Brett Prebble.
"The gate is a bit wider than we would have liked but I’d prefer to be out there than in gate one or two," trainer Francis Lui said. "He’s not a horse that we should try and hold up so I hope he can find a position in midfield with cover. It’s important that he jumps out on time but Brett knows him well and he has come on nicely since his run in the Sprint Trial."
Another Sprint runner, Tosho Courage performed well on the all-weather, coming home in 27.7 seconds for 400m.
"He was not over-worked doing that time," trainer Kaneo Ikezoe said. "He is in powerful form and eating up well."
The other sprint contender from Japan, Laurel Guerreiro, worked at a half speed on all weather track under his regular exercise rider Mitsuo Uegomori who commented: "The horse is getting more powerful as the week goes on."
Super Hornet, the only Mile runner from Japan, had a gentle outing on the all weather track before a paddock-schooling session.
Racing Manager Keita Tanaka watched Super Hornet walk around the paddock and said: "He looks very well. We are very happy with his condition and are all set for Sunday."
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