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Pandorama
will win the Hennessey IMO. He has the class. He has a feather weight. And not running in the RSA which has bottomed many horses could have him coming into this race in perfect shape. I’m not really concerned about the ground either. There will be enough cut for him without being soft.
to be honest its a really tricky race weigh up. i love denman ive backed him in every single race hes ever run in this country and he owes me nothing, im just not confident this year even tho the weights favour him in theory. he will be bang there turning for home as he jumps so well and loves the course, im just worried that hes up against some real good second season chasers this year and he might get done for a turn of foot in the home straight.
weird al must have every chance, his form with little josh looks great and he jumps for fun, the thing is the value looks to have gone now.
diamond harry is another ive followed and he has all the class to win this im just not convinced he wants a real dour stamina test and his jumping is a concern. dont think burton port is good enough and the more i look at the race the more i like the irish challangerpandorama.
he seems to tick the right boxes- jumps well, stays well, handles the soft ground well and his form with wepons amnestey in ireland last year looks rock solid.
hard race, but very interesting indeed!Gotta be Denman, been there and done it.
Was looking at Wierd Al given the recent form boost, but I find it odd that not a lot of people are worried about the fact he’s only raced 3miles+ twice and been beaten by a combined total of 63 lengths!
Will also be looking to have an e/w saver on Barbers Shop. Did really well in this last year given the fact it was his first run. He arguably travelled better than anything until running out of steam late on. With the benefit of a pipe opener and 8 pounds better off, he could turn out to be a bit of value.Was looking at Wierd Al given the recent form boost, but I find it odd that not a lot of people are worried about the fact he’s only raced 3miles+ twice and been beaten by a combined total of 63 lengths!
Add to that the fact that he hasn’t run in a big race for quiet sometime and you get a horse that looks like a runner, backed like a winner but delivers none.
Gotta be Denman, been there and done it.
Was looking at Wierd Al given the recent form boost, but I find it odd that not a lot of people are worried about the fact he’s only raced 3miles+ twice and been beaten by a combined total of 63 lengths!Weird Al has actually races 3 miles+ just the once, his impressive win against Knockara Beau at Wetherby, but is undefeated over fences!
How has he been beaten a combined total of 63 lengths?
I may be missing something, could you explain? Thanks.Hard to look past him for this in my opinion should Denman find a repeat of last season’s heroics hard to come by. It’s clear his best distance is 3m+.
His comeback run against Little Josh was a brilliant run, considering the sharp track and unsuitable trip, plus he should come on for the run as well.Looking forward to how Hey Big Spender does at a decent price, but Weird Al for me.
Gotta be Denman, been there and done it.
Was looking at Wierd Al given the recent form boost, but I find it odd that not a lot of people are worried about the fact he’s only raced 3miles+ twice and been beaten by a combined total of 63 lengths!Weird Al has actually races 3 miles+ just the once, his impressive win against Knockara Beau at Wetherby, but is undefeated over fences!
How has he been beaten a combined total of 63 lengths?
I may be missing something, could you explain? Thanks.Hard to look past him for this in my opinion should Denman find a repeat of last season’s heroics hard to come by. It’s clear his best distance is 3m+.
His comeback run against Little Josh was a brilliant run, considering the sharp track and unsuitable trip, plus he should come on for the run as well.Looking forward to how Hey Big Spender does at a decent price, but Weird Al for me.
Carlisle is a stiff galloping track not a sharp one (http://www.drawbias.com/Jumps/Carlislej.html). It also takes some getting, since the last 1/2 mile is up a steep climb. That said, I don’t think it harms your case, so much as enhances the options for Little Josh to run over further.
Anybody interested in backing Carruthers should be mindful of the fact that he came out of his race at Ascot somewhat battered and bruised, as Dovers Hill ‘landed in his lap’ at one fence. Apparently he is back on track, but whether he runs depends on a clean scope and his work on Wednesday morning.
sorry was looking at little josh
. Still, Denman should win this, with barbers shop not far away.Carlisle is a stiff galloping track not a sharp one (http://www.drawbias.com/Jumps/Carlislej.html). It also takes some getting, since the last 1/2 mile is up a steep climb. That said, I don’t think it harms your case, so much as enhances the options for Little Josh to run over further.
My mistake seldom.
That point aside though, it was a very impressive performance given the absence from injury that preceded it.
If he’s got any designs on winning the Gold Cup come March, he’s surely got to go close here. Am wondering about an ante-post bet for the Gold Cup now before this.sorry was looking at little josh
. Still, Denman should win this, with barbers shop not far away.No worries andrew, just got a little confused with that that’s all.
Not sure about Barbers Shop at all. Will take a massive performance for Denman to do it again, but, like you say, he has proved he is more than capable.Also, if PNs runs Neptune Collonges, he has to be respected and it would not surprise me to see him win, and what a performance that will be should it happen.
sorry was looking at little josh
. Still, Denman should win this, with barbers shop not far away.If "Good" Denman turns up it will be a cracking race. However, there is still a reasonable chance that even if he does, the 2nd season novices may turn out to have been kindly treated by the handicapper and the handicappers like Barbers Shop & Carruthers have more than a sporting chance at the weights based on form from last year i.e. last year’s Hennessy, BS gets an 8lb pull for 7 lengths and C a 26 lb pull for 23 lengths in the GC.
Much has been made of Denman’s ability to carry big weights and as winner of this race off 11-12 he has nothing to prove on that score. I still think that in the case of small horses like Carruthers, who looked like a pony next to Imperial Commander in the paddock at the gold cup, and a veritable shetland next to Denman on the first circuit of the race, the absence of weight may be be as much of a factor.
PS If I was backing Diamond Harry, I would have liked to have seen him school, preferably like the French do with schooling fences on the gallops. IMHO it is an heroic assumption that he will jump well enough in a field this size with so little experience. OK he won an egg and spoon race round Newbury over fences, but his jumping that day was pretty iffy.
PPS Just found this http://www.markbradstockracing.co.uk/blog/ on Mark Bradstock’s web site
How I see things.
Hennessey Cognac Gold Cup
A third Hennessey for Denman would be historic, will be cheering him on. With only eight horses carrying their correct weight, you’d think this an uncompetitive race. It is not. There are many out of the weights capable of improvement.
Denman 10 11-12
: One of the top 20 chasers ever seen. A big brute who runs rivals in to submission. Due to be reunited with Gold Cup winning jockey Sam Thomas. Showed he was as good as ever in this last year, but probably not firing when fell in Aon Chase. Not far below best in the Gold Cup. Capable of running well fresh, a lot seems to depend on what Denman looks like in the paddock. Looked in cracking shape before the Hennessey and (reportedly) well at Cheltenham. To me he disappointed walking around before the Aon, dull in coat and unenthusiastic. Although very genuine once racing, has some quirks. Sometimes proving difficult at the start. It wouldn’t be the biggest surprise to see this well loved horse plant himself one day. In just over a month’s time Denman will be 11 years old, most of that age are on the downgrade, certainly unlikely to improve. At around 4/1 hardly represents value, but may well shorten up further with public interest.
Neptunes Collonges 9 10-8
: One of Denman’s stable companions; dropped significantly in the weights for his absence, not seen since Gold Cup day 2009. Suffered a tendon injury there when a disappointing fourth, 8 ½ lengths behind Denman. Beat Notre Pere (then top class) 5 lengths in Irish Hennessey (Grade 1). Best on a soft surface. If fully fit and injury hasn’t taken its toll (quite big Ifs) looks well handicapped.
China Rock 7 10-4
: A decent Irish novice, second in Champion Novice at Punchestown over 3m1f. Ran well in Britain, good fourth in Jewson Handicap at the Festival. Very progressive this season. Only just over 4 lengths behind a below form winner Kauto Star (levels) in Jwwine.com Champion Chase. Raced prominently of late, has a good chance if maintaining improvement over this slightly longer trip. Equally effective on soft or good ground, although a softer surface will place more emphasis on stamina. Looks like Barry Gerraghty will ride and the ground turning in China Rock’s favour. Over-priced at 20/1.
Taranis 9 10-4
: Another Nicholls runner, lightly raced and prone to injury, but has an exceptional record fresh. Won Cotswold Chase by 6 lengths, getting 6lbs from second Carruthers. On the face of it that looks good form. For that to be the case you must believe Joe Lively, who gave Taranis 10lbs and beaten only 7 ¼ lengths, produced his only good run in two years.
Madison Du Berlais 9 10-1
: Ex-winner of the race, but although only nine seems on the decline. Below par on all starts last term and looks of doubtful temperament. Flattered second in King George, running on to beat some who chased winner. Also distant third behind Kauto Star in Betfair Chase in 09. Second, down in grade over hurdles on reappearance after making most. Possibly best when able to dominate from the front these days.
Barbers Shop 8 10-0
: Fourth in this last year, but poor win to run ratio betrays a dodgy mind. Travelled well in his races last season. Good distant third to Kauto Star in King George and 4th in this. Refused to put it all in in Charlie Hall first time up this season. Judging by price on Betfair probable non-runner.
Silver By Nature 8 10-0
: Could be one to keep an eye on this season. One of the most progressive chasers in 09/10. Unlucky second in Welsh National and winner of Blue Square Gold Cup in tremendous fashion by 15 lengths. Has since had a chipped bone in a knee, not thought to be a serious injury. Those performances were over further than this and will probably need very soft ground to bring abundant stamina in to play (unlikely).
Carruthers 7 10-0
(9-13): More consistent than overall form suggests given a prominent position and give in the ground. Unable to dictate when beaten by Taranis in Cotswold Chase last term. Unlucky to be pipped for third in Gold Cup. Taking first two on up front and beaten by one coming from way back. Unable to achieve his normal prominent position when well beaten on reappearance. Part owned by Lord Oaksey and from the small yard of his son-in-law. Carruthers would look over-priced if it’s soft enough for him.
The Tother One 9 10-0
(9-12): Should be suited by the trip, but has two ways of running. Best form early in the season. Even so looks ungenuine with a poor win to run ratio. Four lengths second to Nacarat in eight runner Charlie Hall on reappearance, racing with a high head carriage. Not sure to do as well in much larger field if taking his chance.
Burton Port 6 10-0
(9-10): Another second season Nicky Henderson / Trevor Hemmings Hennessey winner? Placed in RSA, staying on after pushed along some way out, doing best of stable’s three runners. An increased test should play to his strengths. Also won two other top novices, Reynoldstown and Mildmay. Does not look especially well handicapped, but young enough to improve. Has winning knack, just doing enough. Gerraghty not able to do the weight switched to China Rock.
Diamond Harry 7 10-0
(9-10): Exceptional record fresh, never been beaten first time out, should see him run well here. Certainly well handicapped on hurdles form. Could yet improve over fences. Two wins over larger obstacles (including here) before disappointing in RSA at Cheltenham, making mistakes. Best on a soft surface. Sometimes gives the impression he’s quirky, but has a good win to run ratio. Usual pilot Timmy Murphy going to Newcastle and Darryll Jacob takes over. Sometimes hangs left and jockey seems at pains to keep to the rail. Which is often not ideal in a finish at Newbury.
Weird Al 7 10-0
(9-10): Genuine unbeaten chaser. Won three novice chases, looking a serious RSA candidate before a small fracture in front leg cut season short. Raced only on a soft surface. Dead-heated with Little Josh on reappearance, who franked the form in no uncertain terms winning the Paddy Power. Weird Al made up a lot of ground late on, just getting up to share the prize at Carlisle over an inadequate trip of 2 ½ miles. Did finish very tired there. Provided he does not bounce, looks well weighted despite 4lbs out of the handicap. Paddy Brennen probably rides.
Big Fella Thanks 8 10-0
(9-9) Changed stables from Nicholls to Ferdy Murphy, but seems as good as ever judging by second on reappearance. However, gave the race away after looking the winner. Like he tried to do at Newbury last term. Looked likely to hack up before badly idling. At least those tendencies make him difficult for the handicapper to get a handle on. Twice looked well handicapped in Grand National but failed to stay. This trip should be within his compass. Not one to bet win only.
Dream Alliance 9 10-0
(9-9) Lightly raced, poor jumping out and out stayer. Won last years Welsh National with a better than usual round of jumping, only significant error at the last. 11 lengths second to Denman in his first Hennessey back in 07 and now 7lbs worse off with that rival.
Niche Market 9 10-0
(9-6) Made uncharacteristic mistakes before falling on reappearance / first start for Nicholls stable. Favourite; did not get in to his usual prominent position there, or when disappointed in Grand National. May jump better up with the pace. Over 7 lengths third to Denman (on same terms) in last years Hennessey for Bob Buckler after disappointing run in same Wincanton race. Just touched off in AON Chase, so clearly goes well at Newbury. Best on going no softer than good-soft.
Pandorama 7 10-0
(9-6): Progressive and prolific, lightly raced Irish chaser. Found to have blood in nose at start on intended reappearance, favourite at time of withdrawl. Kept to a soft surface, obviously fragile and now unraced for 11 months, reportedly due to muscle problems. Won two of Ireland’s best novice chases before his enforced leave and clearly has potential for improvement.
Hey Big Spender 7 10-0
(9-8): Is 6lbs out of the handicap (provided Denman runs). Good jumper up until bad mistake and unseating in Jewson Novices Handicap at Cheltenham Festival. Going well at the time. Then fell at Aintree only other start in 09/10. Few minor mistakes on reappearance at Carlisle. Pulling quite hard yet stayed on to beat Big Fella Thanks a length off same terms as here. Probably helped by that rival idling badly when seemingly sure to win. Hey Big Spender has scope for further improvement if jumping consistently and settling better. Although acts on soft going, good ground might help slightly suspect stamina.
Razor Royale 8 10-0
(9-4): Racing Post winner, beat Nacarat a neck in receipt of 17lbs. Remote 4th in Scottish Grand National, failed to stay 4 miles and weakened 11th of 12 finishers (mistakes) over 1 furlong less than Hennessey trip. Inconsistent and can look unwilling. 10 lbs out of the handicap here. Unlikely starter judged by Betfair price and stable jockey riding Weird Al.
Hills Of Aran 8 10-0
(9-3): Winner of two novice chases in summer of 09 before injury. Returned over hurdles and respectable 4th at Chepstow in listed handicap (October). Difficult to know just how much chasing ability retains. Yet to prove himself over this trip. 11lbs out of the handicap.
Rare Bob 8 10-0
(9-3): Irish chaser, winner of the poorly named “Champions Novices Chase” in April 09 (3m1f on soft) Fair 3rd of 4 finishers at 2 ¾ miles, beaten 6 lengths by Glencove Marina giving 3lbs on reappearance. Judging from Betfair price is unlikely starter from 11lbs out of the handicap.
Already Advised:
23 points @ 8/1 Weird Al
Now:
16 points @ 20/1 (FD, Sky) China Rock
Value Is Everything- Total Posts 17716
First thing noticable is this has the look of the best Hennessy in a very long time.
Some very good horses won this race with low weights before hitting the big time and this time round it may well happen again.
Having backed Denman in both his wins I suppose I should feel obliged to back him again but instead he’s the first horse I would eliminate from my calculations.
Just think there’s better horses in it this time round.
Weird Al jumps out at you with a string of wins against his name but this is by far the toughest race he’s contested in. I think h’ell run well but I don’t think he’ll be quite good enough.
Burton Port is another who stand out and for me is the one they all have to beat.
He’s got the look of a horse going places and he’s very very tough.
My main worry is nothing gets Diamnond Harry off the bridle and he wins in a hack canter which is not hard to imagine him doing with 10 stone on his back.
Against that it’d hard to imagine Denman not having everything at it by the 3rd last so I’ll go with Burton Port who may just have that bit more stamina about him to allow him to mow down Denman in the closing stages.
Very hard race to work out but
Burton Port
for me
Burton Port will end up being this year’s Horner Woods. He was hugely flattered to finish second in the RSA and I really don’t see how he can beat Diamond Harry unless Nick’s horse falls.
The last 2 RSA winners to go on to win the Hennessey the same year both carried 11-12,Denman and Trabolgan,i have always stuck to my philosophy that a good 2nd season Chaser is the one to follow in this,had Weapons Amnesty been fit,he would have been an absolute certainty off 10 stone in this so
Burton Port
has to run well!
Weird Al
has solid form through Knockara Beau and again has to run a massive race if he has any chance of being a Gold Cup pretender!
Pandorama
is another thrown in on last years form through Weapons amnesty and i would be equally confident about any of the above winning if only one of them turned up. However the form book is gospel to me and the way
Diamond Harry
gave over a stone to Burton Port and beat him cosily and the fact that Newbury is not Cheltenham,i am very confident this fellow can deliver and at 8/1 has to be a solid e/w bet! Last years Grand National Top weight Madison du Berlais has to be bang there too at these weights! I have only backed 1 horse up to now though and can see a One Man like performance,he too failed but at least ran in the same years RSA!
- Total Posts 17716
Wasn’t it Newbury where Diamond Harry jumped like a crab, to scrape home from the equally iffy Bensalem in a 3 runner race?Denman seems to be a horse made for this particular race. Big powerful horse that can carry stones on his back. Sam Thomas is back on board and that a massive positive. Denman likes Sam Thomas…he likes his quite style like the Genius Walsh. I believe that if Ruby has made this horse the champion he is. Its a great shame that Ruby misses him but Sam deserves as much credit for keeping his head down.
I hope Denman can do it….if he is in front with one circuit to go…i believe history will be made!
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