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- Total Posts 17716
Sam get’s back on Denman……..how interesting, how fair!!!!
I think I’ll be backing him EW as I can’t see him being run out of the 4 even if he’s not as good as he was.
Sam get’s back on Denman……..how interesting, how fair!!!!
How ridiculous he lost the ride in the first place,he only rode him to beat none other than Kauto star in the Gold Cup! Fickle folk are! Denman certainly made the great AP McCoy look almost amateur at times!
I notice most on this forum seem to be ‘old school’ comparing form and weights etc. Does this work? If you read twenty year old books by Mordin and Potts etc you get the impression weight didn’t matter much even back in the days before Betfair. Isn’t it more about statistical factors nowadays like horse age, trainer strike rates etc?
The Article Maclaren12 may be refering to is this:
The British Army in the 1800’s were making experiments on, how much weight a cavalry horse could charge with.
Their finding were when the weight reached 14 stones did the horses slowed down noticeably. They concluded that weights below 14 stones didn’t affect the performance when it ran at its strongest gallop,set below racing pace.
The fact is most races are ran below racing pace because of the bends.
There is free ebook by Peter May on his website pjmracing.co.uk which has quite a lot on weights e.g.
"The evidence published in Betting For A Living, based on tests undertaken in the 19th century, indicated that weight only slowed horses to an appreciable degree when the amount reached 14 stone. From the above tables it appears that this argument could still apply today, over one hundred years later.
In summary, the horses which carry more weight win more often.
Furthermore, we found that using the weight allotted as an ability rating is as accurate as the tested independent ratings service. The
advantage afforded to the top weights does not appear to be
reduced when the going turns soft, but can be further enhanced by
the configuration of the racecourse."This is surely the conventional wisdom now. There is still an incentive to keep a horse’s handicap down because it can then run against lower quality opposition.
Mr Potts in his book Inside Track also agrees, with the exception of top class races where horses are running close to the limits of their ability. So maybe that is the key. It’s only in the big races that we discuss here that weight matters. But I suppose the Denman supporters would say weight is of little consequence for him.- Total Posts 438
I’m firmly in the Diamond Harry camp here. He has an impeccable record first time out, has only been beaten once in six attempts at Newbury and is of the right age for the race. Anyone who recalls his contemptuous dismissal of Burton Port (who was receiving 15lbs) at Haydock a year ago couldn’t possibly fancy the Henderson charge to reverse the form, even if he is a more natural jumper of fences than is Diamond Harry. Besides, Nick Williams is sure to have done plenty of intensive schooling with his gelding.
Weird Al is a thoroughly likeable type who is sure to go well and a slog in the mud will suit Pandorama. I personally believe that Denman’s in decline but he’s proved many people wrong in the past; he’ll have to put up the best handicap performance since Carvill’s Hill’s Welsh National romp to win this.
- Total Posts 17716
Diamond Harry beat Burton Port for speed, rather than staying power, in that hurdle race, and showed on his very next outing that he lacks the stamina for a proper test – as he had in the Ballymore, and did again in the RSA.
Stamina limitations apart, he has yet to show he can jump fences at anything like this level, and I’ll be surprised if he finishes anywhere near Burton Port.
Pandorama too, has to have a question mark against his ability to last home in this. Though he won well over Leopardstown’s 3m, that wasn’t nearly the test that this is likely to be.
Denman won’t have improved by the 8lb he’s been raised since last year, and meets what promises to be an altogether better field anyway, and Weird Al’s far too short on what he’s achieved thus far.Silver By Nature (25/1 VC)
would be my idea of the winner at the moment. Unlucky runner-up in the Welsh National, and improved on that form again since. Initially thought capable of taking his place in the Betfair, but has the dead 10st here over a much more suitable test, and further rain could only advance his chances.
well once again im gonna tell you , denman will win it again. He ran a brilliant race in gold cup and you lads are telling me in 8 months the horse is in decline. what ever! You all waste your money then on all these novice chasers and we shall see whos laughing. Records are their to be broken and i got a good feeling hes gonna do it.
Diamond Harry beat Burton Port for speed, rather than staying power, and I’ll be surprised if he finishes anywhere near Burton Port.
Pandorama too, has to have a question mark against his ability to last home in this.Wow,our opinions are miles apart,i can see
Diamond Harry
skipping his way round with 10 stone on his back with Timmy Murphy taking a pull between every fence! My 2 Ante-Post Gold Cup horses
Weird Al
and
Burton Port
will both run big races as will
Pandorama
,all of whom are 2nd season chasers of the highest order! Silver by Nature has No Chance reet.not a prayer! There you go,i"m giving you yet another chance to make me look a D*ck! Surely one of these days you have to be right!
- Total Posts 17716
Diamond Harry beat Burton Port for speed, rather than staying power, and I’ll be surprised if he finishes anywhere near Burton Port.
Pandorama too, has to have a question mark against his ability to last home in this.Wow,our opinions are miles apart,i can see
Diamond Harry
skipping his way round with 10 stone on his back with Timmy Murphy taking a pull between every fence! My 2 Ante-Post Gold Cup horses
Weird Al
and
Burton Port
will both run big races as will
Pandorama
,all of whom are 2nd season chasers of the highest order! Silver by Nature has No Chance reet.not a prayer! There you go,i"m giving you yet another chance to make me look a D*ck! Surely one of these days you have to be right!
Diamond Harry could have no jockey and still be in trouble cause the only time he’s faced decent horses over fences he had to be pulled up cause he kept hitting them. Burton Port should finish in front of him as he’s been better over fences but I still think Denman and Neptune Collonges are the 2 to follow cause they have top class chasing form in the book.
I’m dissapointed that you’re not following Imperial Commander for the Gold Cup after last year. I think we were both on at 20’s after Haydock, I don’t think anything will beat him there especially the 2 you selected. Although I would be more interested to see how Pandorama is when he’s fully fit on a line through Weapons Amnesty.
yes mr big phil. ive noticed you have picked out some sweet winners in the last few weeks . So im happy you fancy denman , i had a 200 double the weekend imperial at 8/11 and denman at 5/1 plus ive had 200 on the nose so im hopeing it pays for the xmas. come on
In tonights Racing Post decs part, Daryl Jacob is down to ride Diamond Harry, which is a shame as he is not a jockey I like and I thought off 10 stone he would indeed skip round and win puiing a train.
Do we know why Murphy is not down to ride.
I’m dissapointed that you’re not following Imperial Commander for the Gold Cup after last year. I think we were both on at 20’s after Haydock, I don’t think anything will beat him there especially the 2 you selected.
Bigphil, with all due respect,i the legendary ruler of the Ante-Post kingdom was on
Imperial Commander
at 34"s 25"s 20"s 16"s 12"s and 10"s for last years Gold Cup,i agree he is the one to beat but 5/1 is about right for what he has achieved,i pride myself on finding big prices on horses who have yet to show their true potential so my 33/1 about Weird Al is looking good and 30"s about Burton Port is generous for now! As much as i am confident about Diamond Harrys chances in the Hennessey i prefer both the other 2 around Cheltenham,horses for courses big lad!
In tonights Racing Post decs part, Daryl Jacob is down to ride Diamond Harry, which is a shame as he is not a jockey I like and I thought off 10 stone he would indeed skip round and win puiing a train.
Do we know why Murphy is not down to ride.
No idea,No Idea,i would have bet money Timmy would have been on him! Not to worry, Daryl jacobs knows how to steer!
In tonights Racing Post decs part, Daryl Jacob is down to ride Diamond Harry, which is a shame as he is not a jockey I like and I thought off 10 stone he would indeed skip round and win puiing a train.
Do we know why Murphy is not down to ride.
No idea,No Idea,i would have bet money Timmy would have been on him! Not to worry, Daryl jacobs knows how to steer!
Timmy will be at Newcastel to ride Starluck presumably?
I can’t believe people have stamina doubts about Pandorama. This horse is made for a trip and will probably be a national horse in the future. He bolted up in his p2p at Dungarvan over three miles and just outstayed Weapons Amnesty over three miles at Leopardstown.
I can’t believe people have stamina doubts about Pandorama. This horse is made for a trip
There"s only reet who thinks
Pandorama
has stamina issues Imperial,but then again he thinks the out and out stayer Silver by Nature will have the speed to win a Hennessey! Pandorama will be placed for sure all things being equal and he could be the one to kick start your Monetary Fund!
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As I recall, I was one of the few on here who thought Pandorama would have enough stamina prior to his 3m win at Leopardstown. However, there was no great pace on in that race, and you’d be hard pushed to find a recent Hennessey winner who hadn’t already won over further or stiffer.
Ptp’s just aren’t run at a Hennessey pace.TAPK
Once again, your mouth is much bigger than your memory.
Diamond Harry – as I told you last year before the RSA – has neither the jumping ability or the stamina for such a prize.
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