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if any of these novices are gonna win , It may be hey big spender he has the best form . if denman jumps a clean race then hes gonna win it
However, even the briefest of glances through the formbook would show you that no horse gave the admirable and consistent Knockara Beau as heavy a beating last season as did Diamond Harry at Haydock last January. Knockara Beau was subsequently runner-up to both Weird Al, in the Towton, and to Burton Port in the Reynoldstown. He finished relatively close-up behind Weapons Amnesty in the Sun Alliance, too.
Didn’t Knocknara Beau get nearly brought down and brought to a standstill by Bensalum falling at Haydock?
Anyone fancy the chances of last year’s third, Niche Market, to be placed again this year ?
7L adrift of Denman last year
2lb better off if promising jockey claims the full 5lb
Likes the course
Just touched off in Aon Chase by Tricky Trickster
(Denman looking beaten when falling at level weights)
Very capable claiming jockey
Former Irish National winner
Potential improvement (even at 9yo) under Paul Nicholls
Freely available at 33’sOK, I realise Paul Nicholls knows exactly where he stands in the order of things re his five entries … I just think this horse could still have more to offer … only 3 runs since the Aon Chase … ran OK’ish at the Festival behind Chief Dan George … pulled up when fancied in the National … fell halfway when in touch on his reappearance … worth a fiver each way maybe
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Didn’t Knocknara Beau get nearly brought down and brought to a standstill by Bensalum falling at Haydock?
…..not to mention that 2.5m is much nearer to Diamond Harry’s optimum than Knockara Beau’s?
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Anyone fancy the chances of last year’s third, Niche Market, to be placed again this year ?
7L adrift of Denman last year
2lb better off if promising jockey claims the full 5lb
Likes the course
Just touched off in Aon Chase by Tricky Trickster
(Denman looking beaten when falling at level weights)
Very capable claiming jockey
Former Irish National winner
Potential improvement (even at 9yo) under Paul Nicholls
Freely available at 33’sOK, I realise Paul Nicholls knows exactly where he stands in the order of things re his five entries … I just think this horse could still have more to offer … only 3 runs since the Aon Chase … ran OK’ish at the Festival behind Chief Dan George … pulled up when fancied in the National … fell halfway when in touch on his reappearance … worth a fiver each way maybe
I’m only backing Denman and Neptune Collonges but if I thought an outsider could sneak in the places I’d be thinking of Barbers Shop (at the weights). 50/1 available and I think he was single digits last year.
I’ve backed Denman and Weird Al, however the prices of Pandorama and Burton Port look very tasty at 8s, may have to have some on the latter, that was my largest fund of Cheltenham, him to win the RSA.
Had £10 on Denman and Wierd Al to win @ 5/1 each, just had £5 ew on Diamond Harry too.
This is a cracking renewal of the race – as good as I can remember.
I said prior to the BC Classic that it would take someone with a heart of stone not to cheer Zenyatta if she turned into the stretch with any chance at Churchill Downs, and the same applies to Denman at Newbury tomorrow.
Any true racing fan should be screaming for Denman, regardless of where their money lies. I wish him all the best.
He certainly deserves his place at the head of the market. Two wins under top weight and both on his seasonal debut. Same circumstance. Same routine. He’s the one they have to beat.
There’s a number of rising stars who could make life tough for The Tank. Knockara Beau has a lline of form with a number of these, and nothing beat him more convincingly than Diamind Harry at Haydock at the beginning of the year. He has been far from perfect in the jumping department – that has to be a worry, but in a race where you need a horse that can travel, Diamond Harry possesses all the necessary gears to be unaffected by Denman’s brutish tactics. One would have to take his jumping on trust, but he is sure to have been well schooled in that department and goes well fresh (beat Burton Port over hurdles, giving 15lbs, on seasonal bow last year).
My final entry in the ‘RSA 2010’ thread was ‘Next stop Newbury’, and Burton Port has done nothing but improve over the larger obstacles – I think he has even surprised connections with his level of ability. His only defeat came in the RSA at Cheltenham when he was given a fairly tender ride before demonstrating his battling qualities when victorious at Aintree, despite being under pressure early on. He’s another who goes well fresh and will be staying on when others have cried enough.
Weird Al is unbeaten over obstacles in five starts and open to any amount of improvement. The form of his seasonal debut has worked out very well, despite giving weight over an inadequate trip. A sound jumper, he will relish the conditions of the race, but may lack that little bit of class required.
Pandorama is another who could potentially go right to the top. This further step up in trip will suit, but whether the ground is soft enough is open to debate. Has only found Mikael d’Haguenet too good, thus far.
Diamond Harry could prove the biggest threat to Denman, but my ew selection for the race is
Taranis
. Nick Scholfield was in the saddle when he landed the Argento after more than two years off the track. 14/1 is just too big for a horse of his undoubted quality, who is at his best when fresh.
A wonderful race. This is what National Hunt racing is all about. Can’t wait – the snow has fallen and it really is like Christmas has come early.
Excellent post Bos,have to agree Denman can only win tomorrow by going through the pain barrier and you just know he will make it a thorough test,unfortunately for him he is a sitting duck for the potential Gold Cup horses carrying 10 stone and if any of them are serious horses they have to beat the Tank convincingly as come Cheltenham they wont get near him off levels if they dont! I just feel poor Denmans not fighting one fly weight but several potential heavyweights carrying flyweights! I personally hope he gets pulled up quickly when he"s passed as its just too much to ask!
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Silver By Nature was impressive on his final start last season and with Lucinda Russell in such good form, 25/1 looks quite generous.
A cracking race in prospect here.
Denman is hard to see out of the frame, if he repeats his run of last year he’ll more than likely atleast be in the 1st 5. However, the horse he beat last year, What A Friend, imo was not as good a novice as Pandorama, Weird Al, Burton Port and Diamond Harry.
I also couldn’t rule out Neptune Collonges and Taranis. If Neptune retains as much ability as he had 2 or 3 years ago then he’ll really test the 2nd season novices.
Pandorama for me. The only time he’s been beaten he was found lame afterwards(I think
), although Cousin Vinny had him covered at Leopardstown. The ground will suit, the trip should bring the best out of him, and going left handed is a positive. If he can’t win this I’ll be fairly disappointed.Any views on the pace of this race? I think it might be quite fast initially as it looks quite competitive and many riders will want to be near the front. This might turn out to be stamina-sapping, lead to more fallers and ultimately favour the stayers like Silver by Nature and Pandorama.
(Apparently this happens at Cheltenham sometimes according to P Veitch in his book Enemy Number One.)
hahaha we will see u waste ur money on these novices. denman will jump them into submisson. Not 1 of them deserve to be in the same race as denman and you no it.
Tomorrow’s race is the best and deepest handicap chase I have seen in 40 years following the sport.
I think it is just too much to ask for Denman but he may be able to do it…part of me wants that.
Weird Al, Pandorama, Hey Big Spender, Big Fella Thanks and Diamond Harry all look horses of great potential…its about identifying the potential Gold Cup winner amongst them on about 10 stone.
Neptune Collonges, Carruthers, Madison Du Berlais are all Gold Cup placed types who have under 10 stones 7lbs in a £180k handicap.
Niche Market, The Tother One, Silver By Nature & Dream Alliance are all cracking handicappers who all have virtually no chance in this stunning race.
Razer Royale is a bit of a dark horse on Racing Post Chase form and the Twister bandwagon.I have got really stuck in to Pandorama and a little Razer Royale action 106…unfortunately I have only backed 2nds and fallers for a about a month now, so not brimming with confidence anymore.
What a race in prospect, last time I was this excited about a non Cheltenham race was Moscow’s Tingle Creek against Az’ and Well Chief.
Good luck and safe passage to them allAnybody interested in placed horses, here is the info.
In the last 20 years there have been 319 runners in the race, of which 70 have been placed (i.e. depending on 16+ runners 3/4 places). 22% of all runners are placed.
36 10-y-os have run gaining 5 places 14%
66 9-y-os have run gaining 10 places 15%
67 8-y-os have run gaining 11 places 16%
80 7-y-os have run gaining 25 places 31%
34 6-y-os have run gaining 17 places 50%I guess that means Burton Port is a standout bet for a place on Betfair at 2.84 and if you fancy him to win, which I do, then e/w merits serious consideration.
I’d be nervous if I were a Denman backer: I think I am going to lay him to be unplaced. Bit cross I missed laying evens.
I was always planning to back Carruthers as he’s well handicapped against Denman and has some decent G1 form in the book. He would be cracking value at 20/1. But, he was absolutly battered in his prep race at Ascot, both physically and mentally, and it has taken some time to get him back on track.
Carruthers e/w 20/1
Burton Port e/w 9/1
Denman lay at 2.10 (decimal)Good luck all!
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