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This is something I have had a number of goes at, playing around with my own rating systems for how horses should be weighted against each other. Mixed results its fair to say
So here is my latest attempt, a further evolution to my own rating system, this isn’t necessarily looking for the best horse in the race, but sometimes just the best value.
Tonight I have looked at the 15:10 at Fakenham for tomorrow, and after pumping the figures into my spreadsheet, here is what I have come up with.
I agree with the market and make Tayzar the favourite, and I think the price is probably fair at 3/1 in this race although I wouldn’t want to go any shorter.
I also like Break The Rules at a tasty looking 16/1, if the wind surgery works, he could be well in here, will like the course and the ground conditions.
Iconic Sky is interesting but after so long off, there is no way of knowing how the past form will hold up.
So here are my bets for this one.
Tayzar 1pt Win
Break The Rules 1pt E/W
The wind op didn’t make enough difference -3
A 16:15 Keats 1pt E/W N/R
C 15:10 Economic Crisis 1pt E/W
MR 16:31 Fidux 2pt Win – Taken at 8.4 on Betfair6 points staked – 18.8 returned + 12.8
+9.8 overall
Po 15:20 Inexes 2pt Win @11 on Betfair
I also quite like Society Queen either E/W or for a place only but I’m going to just watch on that one
Could have had 20’s on betfair this morning………..
-2 / +7.8 running
A couple of chances taken on fitness today.
F14:35 Royal Plaza Wind Surgery needs to have put him back on track, but certainly capable of winning this off current mark if it has, 10/1 is worth a shot. 1pt Win
F15:45 Hugos Reflection definitely taking a chance, not seen since Jan after being pulled up, if back to full fitness has a good chance 18/1 is too good to ignore. 1pt E/W
Native Robin, loves it round this figure of 8 but 5/1 is too short for me for first race back, if he drifts I might play later.
Royal Plaza clearly not back to his best, Hugo’s Reflection got backed in to 9/1, luckily I took 18’s
+2.6 / +8.3
C16:00 Tanarpino Top weight but good run sole start here loves a testing track, goes well on the ground, and if fit is great value at 10/1 I have him a 4/1 shout. – Backed 2pt win @ 18.5 1pt place @ 5.2
Lud16:20 Chasamax Taking a chance that 2 1/2 was too far last time a drop back in trip will suit. Quite a few something to prove, and 9/1 looks generous. – Backed 2pt Win @ 10.5 – 2nd
+40.2 / +48.5
C15:35 Northern Beau has good course form, which counts for a lot around here 1pt Win @30 1pt place @6.6 I also like the price of Dolos classy horse tool long @ 15 on Betfair 2pt Win 1pt place @ 4.1
Dolos was very close to holding on for a place.
-5 / +43.5
A13:22 Minellacelebration I’ve got got 9/2 as playable so I am going to go 2pt win @8.8 on Betfair
+15.6 / +59.1
R13:15 El Erayg – Not the most inspiring race, I think its quite open, I have this horse at a 4/1 shot though so I am going to play 1pt win @ 9.4 on Betfair.
2nd Place
-1 / +58.1
Nnk14:55 Hawridge Flyer 1pt Win – Definitely looks as though this year has been a bit of a struggle, however C&D form reads 4/2/1/3 and the ground should be no problem, I think worth a shot at 11 in this race.
Improved run, finishing 3rd
Wth14:10 Louis Vac Pouch 1pt Win I have him a 9/2 shout in this so happy to take 11.5 all be it a bit of a hope that he needed the last run, and can get somewhere near his potential. Happy Diva 2pt Win is the class horse here the price is not bad, I have 7/2 so will take 5.9.
Louis unfortunately fell, and Happy Diva probably needed the run.
-4 / +54.1
Ayr 14:17 Skipthescales I think has a shout at this, value at 11 on BF 1pt win – Only ran out of steam close home, a value run at the price.
Ayr 14:52 Drumcore Lad Carrying top weight in this ground a definite disadvantage, but I like the 7.2 available. 2pt win – Strong run, nice win.
Ascot 15:40 Mister Malarky OK he’s definitely had issues, but if he gets round he should be up there? 1Pt at 22 to win and 1pt at 4.5 to place top 4 – Good run at the price.
+10.4 / +64.5
MUS14:20 Sporting Press – It is fair to say he has been problematic since switching yards to Paula Smith, but 25’s is too long not to take a punt on every dog having his day, he has potential just not finding it. 0.5pt Win 0.5pt Place
Very good run for the money, shame couldn’t bet one place higher.
NTT15:10 Fox Hill – Although I have John Kirkup as the favourite, I think that close behind that is Fox Hill and at 8.4 represents much better value, he’s going well and likes soft ground, won under this jockey before, has every chance here.
Disappointing
-2 / +62.5
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