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SANTA ANITA – Race 8 – Sunday 31st January
Race 8 at Santa Anita today looks to be the best race taken place at Santa Anita since the Breeders Cup and almost every classy filly within a 1,000 mile radius looks to have an entry here (with the exception of Zenyatta and Tuscan Evening who is a late morning scratch).
Evita Argentina (#3) will need a strong pace to run into and will be at least seven lengths off of the nearest trailer with 3f to go but this race does seem to lack that crucial pace angle and she may struggle here to get up in time.
Gabbys Golden Gal (#11) and Free Flying Soul (#6) look to be the lone pace horses here and whilst Free Flying Soul is coming into the race on a hat-trick and off of a 3rd place finish in the Breeders Cup Filly & Mare Sprint I find it hard to see her keeping up with the kind of fractions that we know Gabbys Golden Girl is capable. It was no coincidence that this Baffert filly managed to rout a G1 Belmont field when running fractions like 22.61 in the first quarter! I can see Gabbys Golden Girl towing Free Flying Soul along a little quicker than Mike Smith would like and that may be the undoing of the #6 here.
Tracking this pair will be Captain’s Lover (#4) and Cherryblossommiss (#2) – neither of which look good enough here and will be passed by a lot of horses on the home turn.
Sitting in the middle of the pack will be the dropper, Proviso (#7), and another of Bob Baffert’s by the name of Gilded Gem (#12) with Diamondrella (#1), Czechers (#9) and my eyecatcher, Sweet August Moon (#10) hanging on their tails towards the rear. Czechers comes off a second placed finish to Tuscan Evening over 6.5f last time out and should be rolling late and fast with Chantel Sutherland on board – she could be one of your exotic plays here.
However, The eyecatcher here is mid-pack runner Sweet August Moon (#10) who returns from a 9 month break where she racked up a series of wins over the Santa Anita track. Her record over the track reads 5 wins, 2 places and 2 unplaced efforts – 3 of those wins came in quick succession between February and April last year and she is in fact still on a four-timer from those wins. If Smokin’ Joe Talamo can keep this filly relaxed towards the middle of the field and out of trouble AND if she is fresh and ready to go this could be a nice bomb for the PK4s and PK6s. Sweet August Moon certainly has the talent to win this but the one worry is the lay off.
For me, the exotic plays look very tasty in this race and I’d suggest using Sweet August Moon (#10), Czechers (#9), Gabbys Golden Girl (#11), and Proviso (#7) as your play considerations here with a cover of Evita Argentina (#3) incase the pace battle up front between the #11 and #6 does get as hot as I may expect.
The play?
WPS of the #10 Sweet August Moon (Covers on the #7 and #3)
TRI – #3,#7,#10 up top with the #3,#7,#10,#11,#9 underneath on P & S.
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