- This topic has 29 replies, 11 voices, and was last updated 8 years, 8 months ago by
.
- Posts
KHALIDI has changed trainer from John Gosden to Clive Cox – could that be an angle into the race? Either way, he looks really over-priced at 14/1.
The one I really like is MIRAGE DANCER. Generally 9/2 is a really fair price considering his good third behind Benbatl and Orderofthegarter on only his third start. He shaped as though in desperate need for a step up in trip, in my opinion.
I think cracksman probably deserves to win on what hes shown
venice beach wants further from what ive seen but if they use douglas macarthur how they did at epsom it could set the race up for him at the end
Khalidi e/w looks a half decent bet, cant see him winning this but could sneak a place if the field all turn up (wouldnt bet until before he race to ensure that)
Not sure on mirage dancer i dont think id play at that price
Will have a little on venice beach but cracksman really should be winning this
Atty Persse each way at 20/1
I was all over him at Royal Ascot as I believed she was the group horse in a handicap and that proved the case as she won somewhat cosily.
I think this is a race where she could run travel nicely into the race and at the very least find a 5/1 place.
Cracking bet in my opinion
I like Cracksman here. As soon as he finished second in the Irish derby I was convinced he would win a big race by the end of the year. Seems a banker bet (although according to Tom Segal, there are no bankers at York.)
The one I really like is MIRAGE DANCER. Generally 9/2 is a really fair price considering his good third behind Benbatl and Orderofthegarter on only his third start. He shaped as though in desperate need for a step up in trip, in my opinion.
Totally agree with you Degaussed, run of the race didn’t suit Mirage Dancer at Ascot either. Cracksman obviously has the best chance, but Mirage Dancer should be a lot closer to him in the market. Excellent value at around 11/2 imo.
Value Is EverythingKHALIDI has changed trainer from John Gosden to Clive Cox – could that be an angle into the race? Either way, he looks really over-priced at 14/1.
If we were talking about a sprinter I’d say the move from Gosden to Cox would be very much a positive angle.
But with a middle distance horse I’d say it’s a negative one.Value Is EverythingBet Venice Beach @ 20’s & 12’s E/W. Liked his last run in France which should of put him spot on for this. Still 25’s for the Leger which could look big if running well here.
Must admit though, the Favourite looks hard to beat.
I can’t work out the stable swapping of Khalidi but I don’t see it as a negative. I think the better ground will see him to better effect that at Goodwood I just doubt he’s quite good enough to actually go and win a race like this. Maybe Mr Cox will bring about some improvement but given the busy season this colt has had I think we know where we are with him.
I’m a bit of a Venice Beach fan and have had a bet to win at 15/2 and nibbled at a bit of 20/1 for the St Leger. I think he’ll relish everything about this test and if anything’s going to beat Cracksman I think Ballydoyle’s first string is the one.
Cracksman will take all of the beating that’s for sure and holds most of these on form. Good luck to all those backing him but he’s not a horse I’d back at odds-on.
I hope all 8 run for those of you backing each-way.
The one I really like is MIRAGE DANCER. Generally 9/2 is a really fair price considering his good third behind Benbatl and Orderofthegarter on only his third start. He shaped as though in desperate need for a step up in trip, in my opinion.
Totally agree with you Degaussed, run of the race didn’t suit Mirage Dancer at Ascot either. Cracksman obviously has the best chance, but Mirage Dancer should be a lot closer to him in the market. Excellent value at around 11/2 imo.
Douglas Macarther did well to get within 2 3/4 lengths of Cracksman in the Derby considering he quickened what was already a fast pace around Tattenham Corner. A more even or slower than even pace could see improvement.
I’ve done Mirage Dancer each way @ 11/2 and using the potential profit from the place part of that bet, had a small win only on Douglas Macarther @ 14/1.
Value Is EverythingVenice Beach at 15/2 and Douglas Macarthur at 14/1 for me. Thus actually looks a pretty open race to me. having said that the front two will now probably go ten clear of everything else!!
I am favouring leaving this race alone.
Despite the talk of Cracksman working well at home, I cannot shake the fact that Gosden suggested that this could be the Colt’s last race of the season and that he may wait for next season to let the son of Frankel have a go at making a name for himself as a 4YO.
Looking at the St Leger, it has hardly been a who’s who of horses that managed to make it big in later seasons. Cracksman has already had two tough races in the Epsom and Irish Derbies, so I feel there are better odds-on shots available.
If forced to pick one, I would probably side with Mirage Dancer. I felt that Epsom would always come too soon for the Stoute horse and he doesn’t have that much to find here. He is the one who appeals as having the most potential to me.
Venice Beach seems to be permanently under-rated. Not far behind the ill-fated yardstick Permian last time, Venice Beach has Ryan Moore on board and it seems largely forgotten that he beat the Derby winner in landing the Chester Vase. A speculative punt for me in the Leger at 50/1, he is still half those odds despite just the one poor effort in the Derby itself.
The downsides for me with Venice Beach are that York may not play to his strengths and he has had more runs than Mirage Dancer, meaning that he perhaps lacks the scope for making as improvement.
I think I would rather back Mirage Dancer at 11/2 AND Venice Beach at 15/2, than lump on Cracksman at a shade of odds on.
Good luck wherever your own cash goes here.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
We’ll have to go on wondering how Khalidi will get on for Clive Cox.
Non-runner.
Straight to the Leger I’d presume.
With Khalidi out it means every runner in this year’s race are a direct descendant of Galileo.
3 are sons, 3 are grandsons.
Worrying for the future of the breed?
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.