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At what price would you make Gray Wolf River value, ginge….?
When I work out a race my prices go down to 2000/1 (0.0005%). If (as in this case) a horse has imo less than 0.0005% I don’t include it in my percentages.
Value Is EverythingConnections are guaranteed just over £2,300 if the mare completes now, as the final declarations number just five.
gc
Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
Daft rule.
Would an Austin Allegro be allowed in a Grand Prix?
Should Leicester City have been allowed in the Premiership? Should Buster Douglas have been allowed in the same ring as Mike Tyson? Should Foinavon have been allowed to compete in the 1967 Grand National? Should Donald Trump… wait… no. That one has serious, real world consequences…
Daniel Hiskett isn’t total **** for brains. His job is to punt Gray Wolf River around from the rear and avoid making a nuisance of himself. The best thing that can happen is that the other four horses (horses don’t think the way us humans do) somehow conspire to create a 1967-esque catastrophe and Mr Hiskett takes advantage of the laudable no-remount rule. The fun scenario for the purist is seeing how far she gets beat. She has a rating of 63 which makes her a benchmark. If GWR is beaten by exactly 100 lengths, the winner will do well to reach a place. If she is beaten by 120+ lengths, we might be looking at a serious dampener to The Machine and a possible 21st century great. If she’s beaten by 80 lengths or less then the UK based trainers need to burst with contrition. The patent scenario is that Mr Harper highlights the ridiculousness of the fact that of the thousands of horses-in-training capable of running for two miles and jumping over hurdles, only four are deemed by connections as worthy of competing in a conditions race on a Boxing Day card. A pox on the handicapper or the training establishment. Many have earned said pox. The worst thing, the only bad thing that could possibly come of this, is that Mr Hiskett sends GWR to the front and brings down one of those few 140+ animals in training which given that GWR has successfully negotiated each of her over 250 jumps in public is highly unlikely.
edit;- I presumed GWR’s gender and that was bad of me. She is a girl horse and girl horses have every right to compete against boy horses. Also, while checking my privilege, I noticed that GWR is Simonsig’s half sister. In human equivalent land, that would get her into a Russell Group uni at the very least.
Is there another sport that allows utter no-hopers to be in the field at the highest level and who can set off on equal terms at the start?
Yes, many if not all of them. The football World Cup being the obvious example. San Marino and Liechtenstein go through the same qualifying process that Germany and France do. They wont ever qualify let alone win the thing but they are allowed to participate and do so. Honduras qualified one year. Should they have been barred because they were never going to win it?
Happens in individual sports too, how many of the 128 who make the main draw of a tennis grand slam have a chance of winning? Very few. But they might go on a decent run and earn a few quid just as this horse might.
I see odds of 750/1 chalked up in places. You run this race 750 times and she might win once. Sure she’d almost certainly need the rest to fall over but it can and does happen. Rarely, yes, but not never.
I am reminded of ‘no hoper’ Steven Bradbury in a Winter Olympic speed skating final. His rivals all had a pile up near the end and through he went to gold.
If you bar the ‘no hopers’ why even have sport at all?
Would an Austin Allegro be allowed in a Grand Prix?
No, but those rolling road-block Saubers are, which is a much better analogy.
The problem here is absolutely NOT the fault of Gray Wolf River’s connections, but rather those of more exalted horses. The former rightly take their chance however slim that may be.
Cannot believe that so many seem to begrudge it them.
Mike
When Moscow Flyer beat Azertyuiop and Well Chief in the Tingle Creek it was rightly heralded as one of THE best races we’ve ever seen. Do you or anyone think it took anything away from the race that two Dr Pritchard no hopers took part?
No answer?
Value Is Everything
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