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Soldier of Fortune – Very impressive at Epsom, Saint Cloud is a much sharper track with 2 tight turns, the decreased test of stamina may not play to his strengths also the hapless Soumillon on board is a negative. 6/4 looks about right.
Getaway – I’d forgive him the Epsom run, he ran out gas, the track will suit him a lot better today. Formwise the Newmarket run looks well overrated. Wont have many excuses today, should be informative!
Doctor Dino – Admirable tough globetrotter, will probably find one or two too good today, patient style not really suited to the track either
Zambezi Sun – First run on good ground since the Prix Neil last summer so will finally run out of excuses today, hard to see him winning on the strength of his last 3 runs.
Youmzain – Nailed on place claims as usual, the BF place price reflects that as usual. Saint Cloud does not favour hold up horses.
Lucarno – Looks a Group 2 horse at this trip.
Tough race to find a bet. Getaway would have just 1 horse to beat if you take his Newmarket rating as gospel and would be value at 7/2, trouble is I have a feeling he’s not as good as the hype suggests and it might be better to sit this one out and find out a lot more about him today.
Any other opinions…..?
If I took aboard your opinions, I would probably ask for a quote on none of the horses finishing the race!
Prefer something with Saint-Cloud experience. Soldier Of Fortune has that in the shape of a Group 1 placing behind Passage Of Time. It’ll do.
I am very hopeful that the good doctor will win both today’s race and the King George. One of the each way bets of the century imo.
Which probably means he’ll finish fourth in both.
At bigger than 3/1 I’m prepared to take the chance that Getaway is as good as Newmarket made him look. I’m not sure there are that many hles in the form. We all know where we are with Tranquil Tiger, Sixties Icon ran to a similar level at Goodwood and probably had the virus that has shut Noseda’s yard at Royal Ascot. Even if he’s not as good as that made him look, he’s still a match for anything Soldier of Fortune has achieved away from soft ground, conditions he won’t get today.
I think this is a stronger Group 1 than Doctor Dinos has been contesting of late and think he’ll need a career-best to prevail.
Cheers DJ. I took the 4.4 on BF in the expectation thats he’s not the 127 horse of the Newmarket run and better than the 118 of Epsom (Raceform figs). So a 123 and a more suitable track seals the deal.
Youmzain once agin would have to be the pick, with possibly an e/w on Lucarno (pulled out of the Hardwicke tocontest this race) would hope he can do better.
Youmzain finally gets his head in front. Ridden closer to the pace today by Richard Hughes, wins comfortably from Soldier Of Fortune.
If any horse deserves it Youmzain does.
Getaway nowhere.
Get in you little legend. He definitely deserves it, no dylan thomas about this year to get in his way, just hope he returned a good PM price. There are plenty who put a lot of emphasis on him being beaten several times in group1 company but he has ran some races that are beyond his Group1 opposition’s capabilities, and it was only a matter of time before he was righht for one on the day.
I couldn’t emphasise enough that SOF was a completely false fav for the Arc and couldn’t see any reason why he should beat Youmzain today. Normal improvement was all he needed today to come out on top.
The die hards no doubt will say it was the ground.
Sometimes you stick to your guns and it pays dividends and this was one of them.
Still don’t think any of the pair are good enough to live with Zarkava or New Approach.
Dylan Thomas granted was a class act but I have always thought it was a case of spomething had to finish second.
The fact New Approach has had a set back plus this result makes me fancy Zarkava more than ever and I think she is the bet of the season to win the big one. Can’t believe 6/1 is still available
For those who’ve yet to see the race.
I couldn’t emphasise enough that SOF was a completely false fav for the Arc and couldn’t see any reason why he should beat Youmzain today. Normal improvement was all he needed today to come out on top.
The die hards no doubt will say it was the ground.
Sometimes you stick to your guns and it pays dividends and this was one of them.
Shame you ignored the fact that you were proved wrong on your assumption that Getaway is a superior horse to SOF. Interesting you fail to admit your mistakes as quickly as you take credit when your right. Your quote regarding those "doubting" you that Getaway was a superior beast to SOF is quite amusing.
"A blind man running for a bus could see the horse was hating the place and if one cound’t see that I think one should give up racing and take up golf..On second thoughts better not as I doubt one could spot the fairway.
I hope that answers my learned friends question."
For the record Youmzain completely deserved todays win but for me SOF was never really travelling on todays tight track and fast ground. I would imagine he will now be put away with an Autumn campaign in mind when the ease in the going will be far more suitable. Or maybe I will just take up golf….
I couldn’t emphasise enough that SOF was a completely false fav for the Arc and couldn’t see any reason why he should beat Youmzain today. Normal improvement was all he needed today to come out on top.
The die hards no doubt will say it was the ground.
Sometimes you stick to your guns and it pays dividends and this was one of them.
Still don’t think any of the pair are good enough to live with Zarkava or New Approach.
Dylan Thomas granted was a class act but I have always thought it was a case of spomething had to finish second.
The fact New Approach has had a set back plus this result makes me fancy Zarkava more than ever and I think she is the bet of the season to win the big one. Can’t believe 6/1 is still available
Without ever wanting to be vitriolic on a forum, you have lost your marbles completely.
On the Henrythenavigator thread you were extolling the virtues of Getaway and how certain you were that Soldier of Fortune’s win was a flash in the pan. But now, it’s Zarkava and New Approach to take the mantle.
Have some humilty, for God’s sake and admit you were wrong.
In any case Soldier of Fortune wasn’t travelling at any point today and I was surprised to see him finish in the places. That’s not to say that he’s a better horse than youmzain ( I don’t draw meaningless conclusions from races), but I wouldn’t say there’s a lot between the pair.
I think Youmzain just has a brilliant turn of foot at 1m4f on Good ground. I think it was merely due to the fact that dylan thomas was suited to the exact same conditions as him, and was a superior horse that prevented youmzain being more successful last time round.
Soldier Of fortune is a very good horse, loves mud under him, but doesnt have the closing speed of Youmzain (when youmzain is at his best that is).
Is it possible that Youmzain could be alot better than we think?
Unlucky on a few occasions at the top level and a tweak in tactics seeming to work the oracle?
Is it me or is this horse beginnig to display more than an uncanny resemblance to the profile of a certain Manduro or am i drunk?
Either way, i shall get stuck in once again on its reappearance
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