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Gee, it was so nondescript that no one remembers that State Of Play ran in the Hennessy. After that, Williams said that he wished he had gone straight to the National(!), and that is what he’d be doing now. ( Wasn’t the horse slightly injured or ill? )
Duh, of course he did. I even remember saying, "Ooh, there’s two Ruckers. That’ll please the pointing lot!" at the time. It’s all a bit of a struggle today…
Be that all as it may, the basic point is the same – unless State Of Play turns out in the next fortnight, I’d sooner he didn’t at all.
gc
Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
My bets in the April-June period turned out to be duds, so I could have saved myself about £300 there.
£5k bets are in bold. Don’t have any £10k bets yet.
£6.81 @ 85.39 Arbor Supreme
£16.99 @ 37.65 Vic Venturi
£15.70 @ 44.25 Comply Or Die
£15.04 @ 44.27 Mon Mome
£15.99 @ 54.94 Hello Bud
£6 @ 55 State Of Play
£1.99 @ 55 Character Building
£9.52 @ 71.85 Gone To Lunch
£29.02 @ 198.49 Miko De Beauchene
£21.31 @ 68.92 Offshore Account
£24.01 @ 118.23 War Of Attrition
£15.10 @ 104.3 Irish Invader
£4.54 @ 261.19 Companero
£8.89 @ 136.65 Dont Push It
£16.13 @ 95.11 Abbeybraney
£6.97 @ 170 Cloudy Lane
£11.10 @ 151.53 Trabolgan
£20.10 @ 114.74 Over The Creek
£19.41 @ 174.66 Flintoff
£5.06 @ 142.71 Maljimar
£14 @ 150.36 Kilbeggan Blade
£14.78 @ 163.81 Preists Leap
£21.60 @ 127.1 Ballytrim
£2.52 @ 272.06 Hennessy
50p @ 190 Rambling Minster
£13 @ 137.78 Iris de Balme
£57.94 @ 102.16 Garde Champetre
£2.13 @ 176.24 Finger Onthe Pulse
£9.60 @ 132.43 Southern Vic
£12.57 @ 111.59 Parsons Legacy
£14.63 @ 168.11 Coe
60p @ 500 A New Story
£6.58 @ 157.1 Killyglen
£7.53 @ 204.16 Siegemaster
£16.99 @ 120 Bothar Na
£39.69 @ 125.31 Golden Flight
£5.29 @ 166.22 High Chimes
£40.20 @ 124.87 Himalayan Trail
£58.27 @ 109.03 Merigo
£11.47 @ 216.47 Morgan Be
£10.52 @ 179.05 Jass
£4.60 @ 472.61 Will Be Done
£4.37 @ 360.64 Star De Mohaison
£9.77 @ 100.85 Casey Jones
£25.61 @ 333.95 Boychuk
£13.43 @ 443.08 Kilcrea Castle
£5.25 @ 246.4 Operation Houdini
£3.71 @ 398.52 Toby Jug
£8.01 @ 206.98 Hoo La Baloo
£7.28 @ 243.46 Parsons Pistol
£17.29 @ 207.15 Chief Dan George
£23.64 @ 212.59 Beat The Boys
£16 @ 120.32 Cane Brake
£9.14 @ 204.32 Gungadu
£9.29 @ 799.01 Horner Woods
£7.97 @ 517.74 Regal Heights
£3.99 @ 475.09 Air Force One
£2.58 @ 501.43 Pomme Tiepy
£5.32 @ 161.24 Beroni
£8.19 @ 224.96 Roll Along
£1.99 @ 320 Palypso De Creek
£9 @ 115.56 Kornati Kid
£10.99 @ 171.83 Joe Lively
£16.99 @ 205.18 Nozic
£4 @ 340 Cornish Sett[/color:2pwyhsmz]
£24 @ 1 Drumconvis
£19.90 @ 1 Russian Trigger[/color:2pwyhsmz]
£902.40 total, not bad for someone who earns £6.10 per hour.I forgot that Beroni was an Accordion, but I did the Cornish Sett bet when I was compos mentis.
edit: Portfolio slightly out of control; was supposed to be a budget of £800 and 40 horses.
Apologies, Gerald, I must have conflated the 2 threads. However I can’t seem to find your ‘Portfolio’ thread now, using Forum Search. How can I access it again?
It is in the Trends, Research and Notebook section.
Palypso De Creek will have secured his place in the National with that run; because he was out of the h’cap, he was effectively running off 136, and Smith will have no trouble giving him a 140 or so, to guarantee a place in the National, without having to bump him up because he was one of the Becher 5.
Have started betting seriously for the big race, now. Which means, along with my 50p ew on Hello Bud at 40/1 I’ve got 50p ew on Niche Market [25/1] and Dream Alliance [33/1] with 25p ew on Big Fella Thanks [25/1]. This was with WH’s. Other bets need to be with Ladbrokes and Corals, and I couldn’t be bothered to cross the road to get there. So much brilliant racing today I forgot about Palypso de Creek. Did someone say he lost a shoe in The Becher which accounted for his run that day?
I’m now pretty much sold on the idea that Mon Mome will win the National again, he ran pretty well off top weight today.
I’m now pretty much sold on the idea that Mon Mome will win the National again, he ran pretty well off top weight today.
He’ll have a hell of a lot more horses with less weight than him in April. He has proven himself genuine and a good weight carrier, but with 39 smaller weights with a great deal of those horses being class acts i dunno if Mon Mome would be an absolute certainty…
I’m now pretty much sold on the idea that Mon Mome will win the National again, he ran pretty well off top weight today.
He’ll have a hell of a lot more horses with less weight than him in April. He has proven himself genuine and a good weight carrier, but with 39 smaller weights with a great deal of those horses being class acts i dunno if Mon Mome would be an absolute certainty…
That’s a fair statement, although to be honest I can’t really bet on anyone else for the National. If I did & Mon Mome won I’d go quietly beserk.
Given that he had had a couple of niggles already this season, I suppose it isn’t too surprising that Hennessy is out for the season with a front tendon injury.
£2.52 blown, and on balance I think I feel better with him gone, as it was annoying not knowing what his real end of season target was.
Just 9 days until we officially know the entries . . .
It’s a bit early to be betting on this race yet, but I thought Palypso de Creek ran a cracking race and will hopefully improve for the longer distance. I also like the profile of Niche Market who’s Hennessy run was outstanding, but who clearly needs to have better ground than he had last time. At 9 he is the optimum age and off around 145-150 will have around the 11st mark.
I’m very surprised Treadwell hasn’t kept the ride on Mon Mome, if I owned the beast he would have the ride for life.
I’d say hang on until April 10th in that regard, Eddie. The commitment to ride Wee Robbie for Nick Gifford at Wincanton on Saturday would probably have been more binding for Liam Treadwell than that to ride Mon Mome.
Conversely, I think it more likely that Venetia Williams will have two or three in the National again than Gifford even one. Wee Robbie is unlikely to get in off 126 (with a fall in the ratings not out of the question after Saturday’s pallid effort), and Soleil Fix will be owner-rider David Dunsdon’s ride if he makes the cut.
He may not be getting the leg up on Mon Mome every time, but Liam is not out of the picture yet regarding him by any means.
gc
Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
Well my long range selection Mr Strachan ran a stinker at the weekend, but still not giving up hope.
Still at 132 in the ratings not really likely to get in unless he comes out again and runs very well.
Would have a small punt at very long odds if available on Betfair.
WREC
As previously mentioned on the site Palypso De Creek from the Charlie Longsdon stable looks like a very good ew bet for the National. Having already proven his liking for the fences in the Becher Chase and shaping like he will get the trip. He appears to handle any ground and would be a welcome runner for the stable following the sad passing of Longsdon’s Kerstino Two who looked a likely type a couple of years ago.
The 50/1 on offer from Bet 365 looks very fair and I fully expect a big run for my money.
I was pleased that The Sawyer won yesterday as that will almost ensure that he gets in the National.
Wiil he go for it? Not sure but he’s had a couple of sighters over the fences so one would think that he might. Of course on both occasions he’s come down, which is strange because he is normally such an excellent jumper.
His sire, Fleetwood, has had a winner over four miles so no forlorn hope. I expect to see him in the entries this week.
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