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That pre-supposes there’s nothing of any real quality on or below 11-0 tho catty. Have you any info on the physics of carrying e.g. 11-7 over 4.4m? The actual weight carried is surely hard enough, but to concede a given number of lengths per mile to horses of similar quality must lead to a certain buckle point in terms of handicapping, which seems to have settled at around 11-0.
I think the only way a weight-carrying performance will be achieved by any "normal" horse is if all those below 11-0 are somehow rubbish or entirely out of form, or taken out by snipers in the race itself. We’re getting much better horses running off 11-0 or below these days also?
With the handicap system, how do lengths, pounds etc equate to distance, ie 2m is a lot different from 4m4f. Eg, if horse A beats horse B at level weights at 2m, by 10 lengths, and then defeats horse C at level weights over 4m, again by 10 lengths, does that have a different reflection on the handicap of all three horses?
My favourite horses - Red Rum, Spanish Steps, Proud Tarquin, Esban, Go-Pontinental, Barona, Charles Dickens, The Dikler, Astbury, Black Secret, Vulgan Town, Huperade, Well To Do, Crisp, Quintus, Argent, Colebridge, Pearl Of Montreal, Nereo, Sonny Somers, Tubs VI, Tartan Ace, Red Candle, L'Escargot, Bula, Beau Bob, Rouge Autumn, Rough Silk, Frodo, Deblin's Green, Prince Tino, Eyecatcher, The Pilgarlic, Captain Christy, Mr Midland, Interview II, Credit Call, My Virginian, Flush Of Diamonds, Scout, Money Ma
Mon Mome had the race to suit him last year. As was explained to us last night, he doesn’t like being crowded by other horses [difficult not to be in the National]. He was taken to the inside because that’s where it was less crowded and when two horses fell in front of him he ran the race in his own little ‘bubble’. He might not get the race to suit this year. What is fascinating is listening to jockeys accounts of different horses foibles and how it can make the difference between success and failure.
Yeah AR, I’ve got some stuff on the physics of carrying weight, but I haven’t got to grips with it yet.
Would you say then, that the reason there were four toppies first last year was
because
of the slowdown in pace, turning the race into a sprint from two out, so the toppies only had to race flat out with their weight for a shorter distance?
Snowy Morning
for me.
Has very good form in the race. Running at inadequate distances all season. Taking fences at a quicker speed than he’s used to may well improve his jumping to avoid any little mistakes.
Is better weighted than last year, has a nice swing with the favourite on last year. Runs off a good weight.
Like them all he has to stay on his feet. But a cracking bet if I’ve ever seen one.With the handicap system, how do lengths, pounds etc equate to distance, ie 2m is a lot different from 4m4f. Eg, if horse A beats horse B at level weights at 2m, by 10 lengths, and then defeats horse C at level weights over 4m, again by 10 lengths, does that have a different reflection on the handicap of all three horses?
Winning margins are more likely to be increased over extreme distances than they are over 2 miles for example. In a similar way to how they can be exaggerated in heavy conditions.
Likewise weights will take more toll on a horse, especially those not built to carry it, the further the race is run over.
Hypothetically, if Denman HAD run in this years National and the majority, if not all of the remaining 39 runners were racing off a true mark and with Mon Mome physically carrying less than he was a year ago – even with a 10lb higher rating – I would be inclined to bet on him.
Conversely with no Denman, and Mon Mome shouldering 11-7 I wouldn’t back him this year even if he had been dropped 3-4 lbs rather than being raised as he has been for failing to show any sort of form with the weights published prior to his potentially flattered Gold Cup run.
Lee
Going to be dry for probably all the Aintree meeting and a warm Saturday is expected, I reckon the ground may be even good come the National.
Despite having Mon Mome last year, the odds are clearly stacked against him this time. For starters what are the odds on two consecutive National wins, regardless of ability? Enormous, I reckon. Secondly, what are the odds on getting a dream run on the inside again. Hugely unlikely to get the same breaks again. I’ll be surprised if he’s in the first five.
Despite myself wanting at least a completed run this season from SoP, it seems Evan Williams is perfectly happy with his preparation.
Well, the weather model predictions from this time last week that were first hinting of a dry, fairly mild second half of this week are being proved correct.
Convinced Saturday’s race will be run on genuine good ground. Had anothe e/w bet last night on Maljimar at 40s; must be in with a good chance of a top 5 place now the ground will be drying out.
Notice Timmy Murphy plumps for Comply or Die – been on him at 28s e/w for a couple of weeks now – but will the ground end up too fast for the older horses? Also on The Package and Arbor Supreme – not worried about Timmy choosing CorD ’cause Graham Lee’s a top jock and has won the National before. couple of other long priced e/w but i’ve lost track now
Funny reading Pricewise column in this week’s Weekender, saying it’ll be soft on Saturday – how many will finish, etc – it was about 80% certain last week that the 3 days of Aintree meeting would be dry and pretty mild, so ground was always bound to dry out IMO.
My list is.
Palypso de creek
Ollie Magern
Beat the Boys
Cerium
Erics Charm
Royal Rosa (if he gets in)My list is.
Palypso de creek
Ollie Magern
Beat the Boys
Cerium
Erics Charm
Royal Rosa (if he gets in)Erics Charm is one i was sorely tempted by and is probably one i’m going to turn to on the day
Surprised it took Timmy Murphy so long to decide to ride COD. 1st and 2nd in the last 2 nationals; surely it was a no brainer. Admittedly the stats are against COD but I’m sure jockeys don’t pay much attention to that side of things…..
and cross off the soft ground lot 
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