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Appears to me the GN trends are full of thorough logic. Again you point to a 3m win – every winner since time began had won a chase at a distance of at least 3m – Kilcrea Castle has not. He hasn’t done so because he hasn’t been able to get past better horses. Pomme Tiepy beat him easily twice, in receipt of 11lbs and 14lbs. Air Force One thrashed Pomme Tiepy, giving her a stone, by 13l. Where would Kilcrea Castle have come in Madison Du Berlais’s Hennessy win? Not in the top 8 I’d suggest. Air Force One was 2nd (this is just a "class" example) and runs in the National off 146, Kilcrea Castle runs off 142. Never won a 3m chase, not placed in a key race. Now, if he wins the RP chase my approach allows me to begin to include him. But if he fails to win the RP Chase you will still include him, still back him and still "give him a chance"?
Not much logic in that so far as I can tell.
Appears to me the GN trends are full of thorough logic. Again you point to a 3m win – every winner since time began had won a chase at a distance of at least 3m – Kilcrea Castle has not. He hasn’t done so because he hasn’t been able to get past better horses. Pomme Tiepy beat him easily twice, in receipt of 11lbs and 14lbs. Air Force One thrashed Pomme Tiepy, giving her a stone, by 13l. Where would Kilcrea Castle have come in Madison Du Berlais’s Hennessy win? Not in the top 8 I’d suggest. Air Force One was 2nd (this is just a "class" example) and runs in the National off 146, Kilcrea Castle runs off 142. Never won a 3m chase, not placed in a key race. Now, if he wins the RP chase my approach allows me to begin to include him. But if he fails to win the RP Chase you will still include him, still back him and still "give him a chance"?
Not much logic in that so far as I can tell.
So had Kilcrea Castle won a poor maiden at 3m+ he’d be included? This horse improved when upped to 3m (2nd). His BEST form is at 3m. He’s bred to be better at staying trips. Just because a horse has "won" at a trip, does not mean he’s best at that trip. FORM is (I say again) one horse against the next. Nothing to do with which race he’s won or indeed if he’s won or placed 5th. A 5th place in the Gold Cup is better than a win in a 3m2f110y maiden chase.
Did you need to go back to 2008 to find form that had not worked out? Kilcrea Castle has improved since that race, Pomme Tiepy has gone the other way.
On 11th Jan 09 he was 4 lengths second to Schindler’s Hunt recieving 13lbs, with Finger On The Pulse 3rd (beaten 1 1/2 lengths by KC. FOTP had been 2nd to Noland on his previous start. Vic Venturi was back in 4th, carrying just 1 lb more than KC yet beaten 2 lengths. Set to get 12 lbs from VV.
You give every indication BB of someone who does not understand what
"FORM"
is.
Value Is EverythingWas just an example.
VV has shown his class, that’s why KC receives the weight, given what he did lto, I’d back VV over KC any day on those terms.Suppose we should see how KC does on Saturday? Needs to go mighty close to prove he’s up to the national, I’d think. Maybe he will.
At this point I’d say Vic Venturi has a better chance than Kilcrea Castle, but not by much. yet KC is (or was) available at 50/1, VV is not. If a bookie gave me 50/1 Vic I’d back that too.
Not saying KC will win the National, just that he has a far better than 2% 50/1 chance.
Value Is EverythingGosh, a debate at last, and I’m not upto following the minutiae of it at the moment.
As an aside, Monty’s Pass key race was the Topham, though I’m more in the well-handicapped camp than the key-race class camp.
I’ll read it after a kip chaps.
Accidentally found this whilst I was looking for something else. As we don’t have a William Hill Trophy thread yet, I thought I’d park it here:-
• JOHN Quinn was happy enough with the weight allotted to Character Building in the Grand National when the weights were published last week.
Ryedale’s big Aintree hope is set to carry 10st11lb in the April 10 spectacular. In the meantime, he will contest the William Hill Handicap Trophy Chase at next month’s Cheltenham Festival.
Kilcrea Castle has no key race form. Hard to see him being classy enough.
Well today will tell us and Rough Quest won this before his National I beleive
Yep. He’d also won at least twice over 3 miles and been 2nd in a Hennessy. Bit of a difference.
Ginger, I’m pretty sure I know what
form
is, I seem to win enough to keep me happy, but maybe I’m just a lucky guesser, who knows
(should add I won’t be around for the race, but will reflect in due course
)Big Buck’s,
To:
Effectively say Kilcrea Castle has little chance of winning the National because he has not won at 3m+.
Yet ignore the fact his BEST FORM performance was on his only start at 3m+. When 2nd in a grade 3 to Casey Jones in Ireland. So his FORM at3 miles 1 furlong
is BETTER than his winning FORM at
lesser trips
….
Any form expert would think you are crazy.
You may know enough about TRENDS to do well enough, and rely on them, that’s up to you BB. But from what you’ve said, I conclude you do not understand FORM.
Value Is Everything
ok ta
I ain’t a trends man but believe what you want and good luck with KC, you’re gonna need it, because he ain’t got THE FORM IN THE BOOK.
Be lucky.
Kilcrea Castle needs to improve, granted. There are other possible negatives including temperament. But you don’t expect everything to be right when you’re backing something at 50/1 (or now 33/1).Thumbs up.
Value Is EverythingLooks like we can forget about Kilcrea Castle.
People are saying we can ignore Razor Royale as well, because of his jumping.
Decided to have a look at what previous winners had done jumping-wise in their last six chases.
Mon Mome -; -; mistake; slight mistake; -; –
Comply or Die -; -; mistake; -; -; hit
Silver Birch -; -; -; hampered; -; mistake
Numbersixvalverde -; BD; mistake; mistake; bad mistake; –
Hedgehunter mistake; Fell (last, GN); jumped well; -; hampered; –
Amberleigh House mistake; -; hit; jumped right last; -; –
Monty’s Pass -; -; -; -; -; –
Bindaree -; -; -; big jump; -; mistake
Red Marauder Fell 1st; -; hampered; blundered; hit; –
Papillon -; -; -; -; -; –
Bobbyjo -; mistake; -; -; -; –
Earth Summit pecked; -; -; -; -; –
Lord Gyllene jumped well; jumped well; -; hit; -; mistake last
Rough Quest -; -; Fell; -; pecked; Fell
Royal Athlete dived; hit; Fell; mistake; blundered; Fell
Miinnehoma not fluent 7th; -; -; mistake; not fluent, mistake; mistakeNot too sure what to make of that. Tend not to make more than one error in a race.
This is Razor Royale:-
mistake, jumped awkwardly, blundered; jumped slowly, hit, mistake; hampered; -; -; –
Okay, apart from the last two races. Was ridden by the trainer’s son on penultimate start.
Kilcrea Castle ran a strange race, "in snatches". On and off the bridle. Beaten before stamina became an issue. Very best run was on good going, but ran well enough at Ascot on soft. Has not always found that much under pressure, possibly a temperament thing. Is also quite lightly raced, so may be a physical problem. Disappointing any way you look at it.
I’d have both stamina and jumping questions about Razor Royale.
Value Is EverythingAm struggling to make head or tail of the result. Thought they went off quickly, then slowed it down. First two were in those places from some way out. Did only two horses run to form? Otherwise, Razor and Nacarat must have improved a good deal. At the moment I favour the former.
Value Is EverythingI tipped my first winner on my website razor royale 27/1. hopefully the first of many.
Thought the race was run at a grueling pace overall – times are useless in national hunt – nacarat poured it on but made mistakes, like the winner of course, and the KG form was repeated. Madison has never really been "at it" so far, but continues to run ok.
The winner got to within 7L of Poquelin previously – so the form is solid and worthwhile imo.
Nacarat had finished the race last year when he jumped the 2nd last this year!!- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.