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What do you think the cut-off will be then, smart ass?
No need to be rude Gerald.
These Grand National systems are pretty crude though. The 11 stone rule used to hold water but now that thirty horses are assigned that weight or more by the handicapper, don’t you think it’s the first rule which should be jettisoned? I’d imagine the cutoff will be 10’7, fwiw.
The 11 stone rule never held hot water Rory. Now that the 11 stones + lot seems likely to outnumber the below 11 stone runners; trends people want to ignore it. Yet they convieniently ignored the fact that in the past the 11 stones + brigade were sometimes outnumbered as much as 38-2 in some renewals. No wonder they haven’t won or placed as many times!
I’ve gone back to Corbiere’s year. Taken as number of placed divided by number of runners; percentage of runners 11 stone + have done almost as well in the last 25 or so years as lesser weights. Enough to think it’s just a coincidence.
Value Is Everythingwhat about comply or die, he has already won it once, and was 2nd last year, seems to thrive at aintree
what about comply or die, he has already won it once, and was 2nd last year, seems to thrive at aintree
Getting on a bit now, but would not rule him out at a price. A pound lower in the weights this term than when 2nd last year.
Value Is EverythingI stopped the shortlist before jettisoning the 11 stoners, gentlemen. Only went on for the fun of reducing the list to 1.
Have worked out 10-07 is 141 Rory.
From reading what people have written here and elsewhere it seems that the cutoff is usually in the 70s. However, when one looks down the list, it seems difficult to imagine 30 of the first 70 dropping out. I suppose this is often the case?
Doesn’t really matter to me, because as I’ve already done my nuts on the race, I can’t lose, I can only win.
Is it just a coincidence? Two trainers complaining the most about poorly handicapped horses are both owned by the same bloke Mr Ryanair.
Seems to think all his horses should be well handicapped. Seemingly trying to bully Phil Smith in to giving the next horse to be entered in these colours an unfair advantage.
Morris’s words don’t make sense. Says he understands why Alberta’s Run (top weights) are given lenient weights. Then complains his horse should also be reduced in the same way. If that happens to every horse then there would not be any point in reducing the top weights marks.Had WOA been entered a year after winning the Gold Cup; What would MM say if his top weight had not got a reduced rating?
Stupid; think Mr Morris should get back to training, he does not understand handicapping. Is he an idiot or a bully? War Of Attrition is well handicapped.
Value Is EverythingAs an aside, why do people bother entering horses like Kilbeggan Blade who are 100-1 to get a run? I can think of better ways to squander £750!
Because until you see the entries you can’t be sure that you will not get in .You can strongly suspect but if for some reason it turns out to be that you could have got a run but you are not entered you would look/feel pretty silly!
The £750 entry fee, along with the extra £1200 for future declaration stages is refunded in full provided that you are balloted out (as opposed to simply not declaring).Thus, its a gamble to nothing.
2 down, 28 to go.
Grauniad:-
Dessie Hughes said Siegemaster would not run as he is "feeling the effects" of his run on Saturday, while Louping D’Ainay was said to be an unlikely runner by his trainer, François Cottin.
I’m looking at the 80 region, but only because i’m hoping for Silver Birch, Cerium and Palypso De Creek to get entries…
Start at the top of the ratings. Other than possibly notre pere do you really see any other horse running before you reach mon mome? I doubt it myself.
I reckon Notre Pere is running, because Dreaper said the ground didn’t matter much at that distance. [Think NP just needs Heavy ground to slow the other horses down – the 36 furlongs should do that.] I’ll bring up a Dreaper quote later.
Anyway, I’m posting this as I’m sure most people have an interest in at least one Mullins runner, and I haven’t come across any Mullins quotes anywhere else:-
Dessie Hughes intends to send his leading John Smith’s Grand National challengers Black Apalachi and Vic Venturi for the At The Races Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse on Sunday in preparation for Aintree.
The trainer has no complaints about the weights they have been given for the big race in April, with both set to carry 11st 6lb. Stable companion Siegemaster is on 11st 3lb.
"The weight they have got seems fair enough. They have both gone around the track and won a Becher Chase, so I am happy enough," he said.
"They are both hopefully going to run in the Bobbyjo Chase this weekend, so we will find out who is the best then. When they get to Aintree it will be a different game, so it is hard to know. The race will come a year too early for Siegemaster and I feel he needs a break."
Gordon Elliott has two entries and commented: "It is a pity it looks like Silver Birch (10st 5lb) won’t get in as he does comes alive there. He might just sneak in, but it looks like he will struggle.
"The step up in trip and better ground have suited Backstage (11st 0lb) and the Grand National is a race which will suit him well. It will be great for the whole yard if he can win."
Willie Mullins, who has 10 engaged, said: "I will run as many as I can, but I think Deutschland (10st 12lb) is too young, although he will come over one day.
"Arbor Supreme (10st 8lb) has a good chance. He will love the ground, has a lovely weight and is a nice age. He wouldn’t want the ground soft as he can’t jump out of it.
"Snowy Morning (10st 13lb) would be the best of mine, but I don’t think Ballytrim (10st 1lb) or Pomme Tiepy (9st 12lb) will get in. Jayo (10st 10lb) is too young and although Dooneys Gate (10st 11lb) is a nine-year-old, we have only just found out he doesn’t stay.
"Beroni (10st 13lb) has a lot of weight, and while Irish Invader (11st 5lb) showed he loved it last year, I am astounded at the weight he has got. He is entered at the weekend and may run then and will have one, if not two, outings before the National."
edit: Deutschland could still be on for the 2010 Melbourne Cup, 2011 Grand National double.
Jim Dreaper (Notre Pere 11st 10lb): "It doesn’t matter what we think about it, that’s the weight they are going to carry.
"That’s more or less what we expected. We’ll put up with it.
"The National is one of the options. He was disappointing the last day (in the Irish Hennessy) but the run of the race didn’t go for him.
"If it’s heavy ground he might still line-up in the Gold Cup, if it’s good ground he won’t
"As far as the National is concerned the ground doesn’t matter as much, running four and a half miles on heavy ground isn’t fair on any horse.
"I would hope he’d take to the National fences but you never actually really know until you try.
"He appears to be in good form and he may go to Fairyhouse (for the Bobbyjo Chase) on Saturday."
Excuse a halfwit here, but do any chase winners after the publication of the weights incur a penalty, or are these the weights for the big day ?
BBC:-
Nigel Twiston-Davies was in good form. Of his seven entries, he said: “If you throw enough s*** at the wall, some of it might stick.”
He likes Irish Raptor (64th, 10-7), who has won over the fences, and Hello Bud, 70th 10-6 (‘hell of a chance’), who led over the last in the Becher Chase.
Plus Razor Royale (68th in weights at 10-07) – he looks the type that will win round there. Says he can’t split the three of them.
His assistant Carl Llewellyn noted Hello Bud and Irish Raptor had proved themselves round there.
Nick Mitchell said Robbie Henderson would not ride Ellerslie George (10-10) as he has only ridden four winners and needs 15 to be eligible. Will get Racing Post Chase out of way before confirming plans.
my sister lives abroad but wants to put bets online, she was asking about seven is my number, i don’t really know much about the horse, can anyone provide me with info on form, distances he’s used to? ground etc
vf
I’ve just been looking at a lot of the horses previous races on ATR and I was checking out Beat the Boys a few minutes ago. What do you make of a horse like that; he must completely spit the dummy out of the pram when things go wrong. Didn’t he mention Ballyfitz either, who is my Darkness of this year? Was looking at Arbor Supreme as well; can’t Supreme Leaders’ be a bit iffy in the jumping department? Saw the Irish National again; I know he didn’t have much weight that day but Niche Market is one hell of a horse. So, at the moment it’s Snowy, Character Building, Niche Market, Dream Alliance,Hello Bud, Backstage and BFT. Going to back State of Play and Cane Brake tomorrow and then I’m going to let the dust settle a bit. have tried to stick with horses that seemed certain to run, and hope Character Building actually gets to the race this year.
For what it’s worth, here’s my shortlist. Bear in mind I might well change my mind before the race!
Big Fella Thanks
Possol
Comply or Die
Can’t Buy TimeIf he runs, there’s also
Eric’s CharmIf the trainer changes his mind, there’s also
War of Attrition.
Twitter=@PGHenn
So don't run, just like the others always do
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