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For some Irish horses, if I ain’t got their British rating, then I’ve added about 6 lbs to their Irish rating. Haven’t taken into account the “Aintree factor”, so these are roughly what the ratings currently are.
I’ve put probables in blue[/color:26iv7itq], and possibles in Yale blue[/color:26iv7itq]. I think there are about 35 of the former and 24 of the latter, down to 139, so it may be the case that a horse will have to be rated 140+ to get in.
I also realised as I working down the list a few minutes ago that there are a few horses whose intentions I am unaware of, so this isn’t as accurate as I would have liked.
186 Kauto Star
182 Denman
170 Neptune Collonges Sidelined [/color:26iv7itq]
169 Madison Du Berlais
167 Notre Pere
165 Albertas Run
162 Joncol
162 Nacarat
160 Cooldine
161 Mon Mome [/color:26iv7itq]
159 Black Apalachi [/color:26iv7itq]
158 Air Force One [/color:26iv7itq]
158 Mister Top Notch
158 The Tother One
157 Cloudy Lane [/color:26iv7itq]
157 Halcon Genelardais
157 Roll Along [/color:26iv7itq]
156 Barbers Shop
156 Garde Champetre [/color:26iv7itq]
156 What A Friend [/color:26iv7itq]
155 Don’t Push It [/color:26iv7itq]
155 Our Vic
155 Rare Bob Sidelined??? [/color:26iv7itq]
155 Star de Mohaison Retired? [/color:26iv7itq]
154 Breedsbreeze Sidelined [/color:26iv7itq]
154 Comply Or Die [/color:26iv7itq]
154 Snoopy Loopy Retired [/color:26iv7itq]
154 Trafford Lad Sidelined [/color:26iv7itq]
154 Vic Venturi [/color:26iv7itq]
153 Calgary Bay
153 Preists Leap Sidelined??? [/color:26iv7itq]
153 War Of Attrition [/color:26iv7itq]
152 Casey Jones Travel sick [/color:26iv7itq]
152 Gungadu [/color:26iv7itq]
152 Nozic [/color:26iv7itq]
152 Ornais Sidelined [/color:26iv7itq]
152 Shining Gale Sidelined [/color:26iv7itq]
152 Tamarinbleu
151 Darkness [/color:26iv7itq]
151 Killyglen
151 Money Trix
151 Ollie Magern
151 Possol [/color:26iv7itq]
150 Big Fella Thanks [/color:26iv7itq]
150 My Will
149 Carruthers
149 Gone To Lunch [/color:26iv7itq]
149 Joe Lively [/color:26iv7itq]
149 Miko de Beauchene [/color:26iv7itq]
149 Snowy Morning [/color:26iv7itq]
149 Tricky Trickster [/color:26iv7itq]
148 Backstage [/color:26iv7itq]
148 Beat The Boys [/color:26iv7itq]
148 Cappa Bleu
148 Chelsea Harbour [/color:26iv7itq]
148 Dear Villez
148 Irish Invader [/color:26iv7itq]
148 Le Beau Bai [/color:26iv7itq]
148 Millenium Royal
148 Niche Market [/color:26iv7itq]
148 One Cool Cookie [/color:26iv7itq]
148 Beroni
148 Roulez Cool
147 An Accordion
147 Atouchbetweenacara
147 Northern Alliance
147 Opera Mundi Sidelined??? [/color:26iv7itq]
147 Will Be Done
146 Ballyfitz
146 Nevada Royale
146 Surface To Air Sidelined [/color:26iv7itq]
145 Ballyholland [/color:26iv7itq]
145 Character Building [/color:26iv7itq]
145 King Johns Castle [/color:26iv7itq]
145 Kornati Kid [/color:26iv7itq]
145 L’Ami
145 New Alco
145 Stan [/color:26iv7itq]
145 State Of Play [/color:26iv7itq]
144 Nenuphar Collonges
144 Siegemaster
144 Wheresben Sidelined [/color:26iv7itq]
143 Bible Lord
143 Eric’s Charm
143 Equus Maximus
143 Jaunty Flight
143 Toby Jug [/color:26iv7itq]
143 Parsons Pistol [/color:26iv7itq] Going [/color:26iv7itq]
142 Arbor Supreme [/color:26iv7itq]
142 Cane Brake [/color:26iv7itq]
142 Dream Alliance [/color:26iv7itq]
142 Exmoor Ranger
142 Hello Bud [/color:26iv7itq]
142 Horner Woods [/color:26iv7itq]
142 Knowhere
142 Light On The Broom
142 Maljimar [/color:26iv7itq]
142 Our Monty
142 Regal Heights [/color:26iv7itq]
142 Reveillez [/color:26iv7itq]
142 Turpin Green [/color:26iv7itq]
141 Ambobo [/color:26iv7itq]
141 Can’t Buy Time
141 Cornish Sett [/color:26iv7itq]
141 Fingeronthepulse
141 Iris De Balme [/color:26iv7itq]
141 Kilcrea Castle [/color:26iv7itq] Homesick [/color:26iv7itq]
141 Mr Pointment [/color:26iv7itq]
141 Offshore Account [/color:26iv7itq]
141 Ponmeoath
141 Russian Around
141 Southern Vic [/color:26iv7itq]
141 The Package
140 Companero [/color:26iv7itq]
140 Flintoff [/color:26iv7itq]
140 Lacdoudal
140 Rambling Minster
140 Standin Obligation
139 Abbeybraney [/color:26iv7itq]
139 Auroras Encore
139 Bringbackthebiff [/color:26iv7itq]
139 Church Island
139 Coe [/color:26iv7itq]
139 Operation Houdini [/color:26iv7itq]
139 Parsons Legacy [/color:26iv7itq] Going [/color:26iv7itq]
138 Florida Express
138 Hennessy
138 Lodge Lane edit: Dead [/color:26iv7itq]
138 Made In Japan
138 Silver Birch
137 According To Pete
137 Aimigayle
137 Ballistraw
137 Brooklyn Brownie
137 High Chimes
137 Hoo La Baloo
137 Kilbeggan Blade
137 Officier De Reserve
137 Oscar Bay
137 Pomme Tiepy
137 Silverburn
137 That’s Rhythm
137 Trabolgan
136 Chief Dan George
136 Ice Tea
136 Paddy Pub
136 Silver By Nature
136 Treacle
135 Au Courant
135 Ballyagran
135 Ballytrim
135 Butlers Cabin
135 Fundamentalist
135 Irish Raptor
135 Jass
135 Nine De Sivola
135 Oodachee
134 A New Story
134 Battlecry
134 Bothar Na
134 Boychuk
134 Old Benny
134 Or Jaune
134 Over The Creek
134 Selection Box
134 Shardakhan
134 The Sawyer
133 Always Waining
133 Cerium
133 Galant Nuit
133 Merigo
132 Frankie Figg
132 Morgan Be
132 Mr Strachan
132 Pak Jack
132 Valley Ride
131 L’Aventure
130 According To John
130 Fair Point
130 Golden Flight
130 Lysander
130 Palypso De Creek
129 Crozan
128 Dev
127 Idle Talk
126 Best Actor
125 Arteea
125 Royal Rosa
123 Simon
120 Himalayan Trail
120 Snakebite
118 Freeze Up
114 Verasi
Russian Trigger Dead [/color:26iv7itq]Edit: someone has just provided me with a list of the ratings given to the Irish-trained horses originally entered in the Welsh National, so I took the liberty of editing the above list to make it more accurate.
Changes were
Beroni 148, not 145
Equus Maximus 143, not 149
Parsons Pistol 141, not 143
Our Monty 142, not 135 (I must have assumed it was British
)
Southern Vic 141, not 142
Bringbackthebiff 139, not 142[/color:26iv7itq]
Just had a peek at Moe’s GN forum. Apparently, Hourigan has written that Church Island will be aimed at the National this season.
For the next couple of days I’m more interested in which horses people have views on or news of as regards whether they are being aimed at this race, rather than what they think will win.
Battlecry was never right last season but ran quite a decent race a couple of weeks ago. I think he was one of Eddie the Shoes’ selections in The Observer for the race.Might be worth keeping an eye on. Church Island is difficult to ignore especially if they’re giving him a bit of a break.
I’ve tried to ignore Church Island this time, as I went in quite big on him last season, and he wasn’t entered. He must be one those rare Irish horses that has a lower British rating than Irish rating – I think it is 143 in Ireland and 139 in Britain, though I’m not sure about the latter.
It would seem to make sense to go for those Veteran Chases again, so long as the ground isn’t too bad. I’d have also thought it would make sense to aim Trabolgan at one or two of them as well, though he might want more than 3 miles.
Battlecry was one of the horses that ran in Barbers Shop’s Graduation/Intermediate Chase at Sandown last season, and because none of the other four performed afterwards it was difficult to get a handle on how good BS’s performance was, though it looked impressive (in the sense that it made an impression, rather than the racecallers’ definition of impressive).
I’m going to try and leave all the Accordions alone this time, apart from a saver on Character Building closer to the day. I think KC has a similar view, because I think at some stage last season he asked me what I thought about Accordions. (I then proceeded to get an opinion.)
Announced a few weeks ago that the prize money will be £925,000, so it looks like it is now going up in £25,000 increments, and we won’t get a £1m GN until 2013.
Because the GN is a week later, I think the entries are as well. Entries close Tuesday Feb 2, and are announced the next day I think.
EDIT: THE FOLLOWING IS INCORRECT[/color:hp8au0sw]
Weights are announced a fortnight after that, so that means that this season the Red Square Blue Vodka race at Haydock is before the weights, instead of after.[/color:hp8au0sw] This will probably affect the quantity/quality of this race.
First races after the weights are out are the Veterans’ Chase at Donny, the RP Chase, the Eider and the Bobbyjo.
END OF INCORRECT BIT[/color:hp8au0sw]
i really fancy air force one for this race, former top class novice hurdler, classy novice chaser ran well in hennessy and has run in the gold cup
former grade 1 winner as a novice and seems to stay well
i just think he is a typical decent old fashioned type of horse to be able to figure in this race
but i dont know what has happened to him
does any one know if he is injured or not
Injured Air Force One ruled out of Hennessy
By Rodney Masters
11.52AM 16 NOV 2009AIR FORCE ONE, who was as short as 12-1 for Saturday week’s Hennessy Gold Cup, has picked up an injury and will miss the Newbury feature.
Charlie Mann told racingpost.com on Monday: "Air Force One has a problem in the hind area and he will spend three weeks recuperating at the Inglesham equine centre near Lechlade, where he will make use of the equine pool and water treadmill."
Air Force One, a 12-1 shot for the Hennessy with Stan James but 16-1 with the majority of other leading bookmakers, was runner-up to Madison Du Berlais in last season’s Hennessy.
He reappeared in the King George at Kempton, but injured his back there and lost his form for the remainder of the season.
Mann added: "Air Force One will be fit when he returns from Inglesham and the plan is to have a spring campaign, geared towards the Punchestown Festival where he won a grade one chase two seasons ago."
There was a more recent update than this, I think. I’ll dig it out of my Portfolio thread. I think Mann has twice mentioned the National, but he can’t realistically run in both the National and at Punchestown.
The impression I get is that if they like the weight, they will run in the National, and if they get less than 11 stone ( less than 151 ) they ought to like the weight; it is just a question of getting and keeping the horse fit.
[/color:1hxtmxhh]This is from the attheraces website:-
"Looking back I think he got injured in the King George when he landed on a ditch and he was never right after. We didn’t find anything when we bone scanned him in the summer but last week we did another and we did find something, some hot spots above his stifle which was affecting his back end. He’s away at an equine centre on a water treadmill so won’t be running in the Hennessy. The hope is to get him back for the big spring races but I am pleased we found something. Although he’s won on heavy I think he’s better on good ground. We’ve always thought he’d be a great horse for the National and he’ll definitely get an entry."
Before the Welsh National tomorrow, we just have time to consider
Siegemaster[/color:1kxjw60d]
What do people make of him? Dessie Hughes has apparently mentioned running him in the Gold Cup before, and in 9 previous runs before today he had run in 2 G1s, 3 G2s and a G3. Despite that, the highest RPR he had ever recorded was in the mid 140s.
Pre-race quote today was
Dessie Hughes, trainer: “I’m very happy with Siegemaster and I think he has a bit of class and should be able to carry this weight in such a competitive handicap."
Came second.Now that he has run in one handicap, will he run in more?
Hindrances to running in the GN are
i) jumping has previously let him down
ii) trainer also has Black Apalachi and Vic Venturi
iii) owner also has War Of Attrition (and maybe One Cool Cookie)
iv) half-brother to Our VicOn the plus side
i) Irish prize money is 6-9% down.edit: I suppose that also from today’s race, Paddy Pub comes into consideration in a Soft ground National. However, because of going preferences, it makes sense to keep him going, and run him in the Thyestes. He may well be knackered by the time the National comes round.
Gungadu surprisingly made the running, despite being topweight. With Mrs Findlay having both Gungadu and Big Fella Thanks going for the National, she has little need to send Denman there as well, unless she has to bail her son out.
Further edit: Just read the race report – Siegemaster might run in the Thyestes, if his rating is okay.
Yes, sorry about that, I was just rambling. Will be seven in a few days. Trainer does says the bigger the better, regarding the fences though. Ignore for the time being – he is sort of this season’s Operation Houdini.
Phew; that’s a relief, having had a conversation with someone last night about our non existant memories It’s good to know that I have remembered something! However, I’ve only had one ante post bet so far on Hello Bud and I’m currently tearing the house apart looking for it; would be ok if I could remember which bookies I went to….
Was amused that Miss Williams said today that as a GN winner, she has plenty of other opportunities to run MM; trainers are usually bemoaning the lack of opportunities for their horses.
War Of Attrition
I was rather concerned about this quote today:-
"He’s probably past his ‘best before’ date and we’re running him back over hurdles in the hope of rekindling some of his enthusiasm."It had been mentioned a few weeks ago that WOA would run in a hurdle race over Xmas, but the lack of enthusiasm was news.
May run in the Thyestes next.Cornish Sett
"Cornish Sett was second last year but he’s been sulking ever since. He’s out of form."Surely there is some kind of mind doctor who can sort out horses’ mental problems? Or why not a change of scenery?
Oh well, I wrote on the Melbourne Cup thread yesterday that that was my last post, but no one seems to have noticed or cared. I’ll carry on, but try to read just the threads that I’m interested in, rather than get involved and upset in other threads, and even though I think most of you are self-righteous scum.
Looks like it could be fun and games at the Canal Turn, if the righty Eric’s Charm is still standing:-
ERIC’S CHARM
12 b g Nikos – Ladoun
Staying handicap chaser who won off highest mark of 135 latest start when beating Lorum Leader 19 lengths over three miles five at Sandown December 5. Now 143 but has been competitive off that calibre of rating in the past.
"Sandown last time was his day but there will be others. The owners are very keen to have a crack at the Grand National so he won’t run again until after the weights have been announced. Phil Smith, the handicapper, is adamant he’s a National horse – I’m not so sure. Although he fell in the Topham, that trip was too short and put him out of his comfort zone."I suppose a knock on effect if Notre Pere runs, and is off 164 say, is that it slightly increases the chance that Air Force One runs here instead of Punchestown.
Canal Turn apart, the rest of the course is pretty straight! Don’t bother about the bickering, I think we’re all suffering from a touch of cabin fever. Anyway, we’ve got to crack this race this year, and with Ben and KC as well we can’t possibly fail [New Years resolution no 1: optimism].
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Mon Mome really caught my eye in the Hennessy despite being tailed off and eventually being pulled up.
Made up my mind there and then I’m backing him for the double. Can’t give him much more weight than the 11 stone he had last year and he won so easily another 10lbs or so wouldn’t have stopped him.
Cracking looking horse who if was with PN would be half the odds.
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