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Something that has always left me a bit confused, perhaps other can answer this, why do we have conditional jockeys in the race who can’t claim when its a handicap? Doesn’t apply in any of the other Nationals as far as I’m aware.
My four going into battle are:
Litty’s Light – I’ve said my piece on him for the last 3 and a half years, so I won’t go on. I can’t remember the last time I was so keen to see a horse run in the Grand National. The ground isn’t optimal, but if it was meant to be, then it’s meant to be.
Galia Des Liteaux – I’ve really warmed to her over the last few weeks, even moreso now the ground has come in her favour. I was really taken by the Classic Chase run, and there will be no stone left unturned by connections with the trainers title firmly in their sights.
Minella Indo – Age doesn’t concern me, nor does the ground. I’m under no illusions that he is as good as he once was, but I don’t believe he needs to be. He’s a class animal with a class rider on board. I think this trip will suit him to a tee.
Chemical Energy – I was desperate to see him run a couple more times after Christmas, but alas. Between that and the gound I have cooled on him completely, however I’m stuck wih him, so I’ll cheer him on for a place.
I am going to see what enhanced places are available tomorrow morning for Eldorado Allen. If I can get him at three figures 7/8 places I’ll be having a small go as he’s an old favourite and I’d love to see him go well.
I’m also starting to warm to Lickerick Lace who has a very similar profile to Minella Times, however the price has gone and I don’t really want to add any more. If I could replace Chemical Energy with anyone, it would be her.
“In recent years 7 to 9 years, who have carried up to 11 stone 6 as a maximum (11 stone 5 has won), and who have had 3 preps with last prep race this calendar year have had the upper hand. This year it leaves one of these horses to win it”.
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LOL
Oh Mike, I don’t think I have ever come across Trends that have been more produced to suit the horses someone wants to (or has) back/ed.Value Is EverythingA bit harsh GT, yeah it’s annoying when you put up a selection for a race and if Mike hasn’t backed it, he’ll immediately come up with some rando stat to piss on your chips like “No horse with the star sign Capricorn and an odd numbered numbercloth trained by somebody who prefers Beyoncé to Taylor Swift has won this race in the last ten runnings” ,
but that group of 3 trends is reasonably sensible.
(Not saying that eg a 10yo won’t win but its a starting point).“LOL
Oh Mike, I don’t think I have ever come across Trends that have been more produced to suit the horses someone wants to (or has) back/ed.”That’s what trends usually do. If people follow trends they will pick horses suited to those trends.
Maybe a bit harsh.
Just light-hearted.Just that 7 year olds used to be a Trend to avoid, Green’. How many have won? One since the 1940’s. Noble Yeats… Could it be Mike wants to include 7 year olds just because he likes Meetingofthewaters?
…Used to be that 11-0 was the Trend boys weight. But how many have won carrying as much as 11-6 in “recent years”? None… Could it be Mike is desperate to get I Am Maximus in his trends?
…what about other “trends” not included?
“Recent years” would suggest you want one coming here for the first time… But that would rule out Vanillier.Many trends would rule out Limerick Lace as a non-stayer, just as before Minella Times -they would have ruled him out too.
Trends often have some logic to them, including some Mike has used – but it does strike me as too convenient.
Value Is Everything“Could it be Mike wants to include 7 year olds just because he likes Meetingofthewaters?”
No. If Noble Yeats didn’t win Meetingofthewaters not on my list.
“…Used to be that 11-0 was the Trend boys weight. But how many have won carrying as much as 11-6 in “recent years”? None… Could it be Mike is desperate to get I Am Maximus in his trends?”
No. If I A Maximus was higher in the weights he’s not on my list.
“Recent years” would suggest you want one coming here for the first time… But that would rule out Vanillier.”
Tiger Roll came back for another try and won.
“Many trends would rule out Limerick Lace as a non-stayer, just as before Minella Times -they would have ruled him out too.”
That’s not a trend that is an opinion. Some people cleverer than me look at pedigrees and give their input on such things.
Ground drying out according to Luke Harvey.
Could be good to soft, poss good in places tom afters.It won’t be Good ground.
All the times today are soft ground times. Even allowing for them going so slow in the Topham.
It is possible it’ll dry to good-soft, but probably on the good-soft side of Soft rather than proper good-soft…And BBC Weather says Aintree may well get light rain and a fresh breeze from around 11:00 AM tomorrow through to past off time. Met Office showing showers from around 10:00AM to around 12:00. There seems to be quite a lot more in the area though, just not over Aintree. Wouldn’t take much to move the showers either to or away from Aintree.
Value Is Everything“No. If I A Maximus was higher in the weights he’s not on my list”.
“who have carried up to 11 stone 6 as a maximum (11 stone 5 has won)”
————————If 11-5 has won but 11-6 has not won then logic says call it 11-5.
I see no reason for you to include 11-6, Mike.
Just seems you have picked 11-6 as the cut off weight for no other reason but to have I Am Maximus in your list.Is One 7 year old winning since 1940’s enough to make it a “trend”?
Tiger Roll won the previous year, he was not placed. So “trends” could rule winners in but placed horses out, which could rule out Vanillier. (There’s a Trends Youtube bloke who’s done just that (he’s also ruled out 7 year olds)). Depending whether the person doing those “trends” wants to include Vanillier or not. And / or wants to include Corach Rambler or not.
My point isn’t really against you, Mike.
It’s just that trends can be made to include or rule out pretty much anything. Depending on what the person wants.Value Is EverythingI’ve ended up with a total of…………Eleven
Meeting of the waters (main hope) Galia, Vanillier, Galvin, Latenightpass, kittys all to win.
Chambard, Roi Mage, The goffer, Eklat de rire and Mac tottie each way 6 places.
I have a few trends myself, like Mike. Which I developed over the years. No age or weight with me as this would automatically and unfairly get rid of horses.
1 Career Best RPR in a chase in last 2 runs (or) on a winnable mark.
2 Top 2 in a chase with 17 runners
3 Placed in a chase of 3 miles 1.5 furlongs or longer (in a class 1 or 2 race)
4 Days since last run no more than 49 days
5 Had a run from Boxing Day to January 31.
6 Range of chases between 9 to 16
7 Range of runs this season from August between 3 to 6
8 Placed in any of it’s last 3 runs, or a top 5 position at the course.
9 Placed in a spring month (March/April races are usually more competitive in these months. )
10 Top 2 position in a Cheltenham Festive race or Top 3 in a English, Midland, Scottish, Welsh or Irish.
11 Having their first or second try
12 Strong Finisher
13 Ridden by a top 10 UK or Irish Jockey.
Loosely based on a system Nick Morden had when his column appeared in Weekender, I allow one trend to be broken.
This year it says I’am Maximus or Limerick Lace.
You've got to accentuate the positive.
Eliminate the negative.
Latch on to the affirmative.
Don't mess with mister in between.Jockeys say it will be testing ground ont he national course, it isn’t heavy it’s soft, but riding very testing
I’ve added
Mahler Mission
Limerick Lace
MeetingofthewatersVf x
*Having their first or second try
Only 5 horses in the past 10 runnings have repeated a top 4 position. So while it’s possible to come in the top 4 more than twice, only 1 horse has and that is now outside the range.
You've got to accentuate the positive.
Eliminate the negative.
Latch on to the affirmative.
Don't mess with mister in between.Tom Segal pricewise has changed his mind again. He is now saying Corach Rambler will win.
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