The home of intelligent horse racing discussion
The home of intelligent horse racing discussion

Grand National 2024

Home Forums Big Races – Discussion Grand National 2024

Viewing 17 posts - 341 through 357 (of 632 total)
  • Author
    Posts
  • #1688339
    GM23
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1338

    Peter, I’m not sure how the ballot works but I did check the ratings after Cheltenham and it looked like he could possibly jump a few places.

    Have been backing him for it since the summer with a few WH epic boosts on him also at 66s. A favourite of mine after that great double last year.
    I see you’re a fan also.

    #1688341
    Avatar photopeter .h
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1889

    I’ve been banging the Kitty’s Light drum since he finished 3rd in the 2020 Badger Ale Chase as a 4 year old! They say there’s no room for sentiment in betting, and maybe they’re right, but his participation in this year’s Grand National holds just as much emotional investment for me as it does monetary!

    Twee, I know.

    #1688343
    GM23
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1338

    My allegiance doesn’t go back quite as far as yours lol.
    I’ve been following him since early 2022. After his gallant efforts at Ayr & Sandown at only 6yo, nobody could convince me that he wasn’t going to do the double last year.
    He’s at a perfect age now for the icing on the cake at Aintree though plenty of luck will be needed on the day.

    Galvin was my main fancy last year and it was all over at the 1st fence.

    #1688350
    Avatar photovikingflagship
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2982

    Any other national year Kitty’s would be in it now for certain. Now we have to wait and hope. And that the ballot favours him

    VF x

    #1688359
    Avatar photobroadsword
    Participant
    • Total Posts 398

    I’m glad to see there’s a Kitty’s Light bandwagon and I’m happy to be on it – albeit only at 25s NRNB.

    I was watching his double last year again today. Not the greatest jumper, but that matters so much less at Aintree these days.

    He and Galvin are my two against the field for now.

    #1688360
    Avatar photoQuelle Farce
    Participant
    • Total Posts 962

    Kitty’s will get in, surely four will drop out in the next three weeks.

    However, I’m concerned that he’s not ran well since the Whitbread last April. That’s a long time to be out of form. His seasonal opener was ok in a hurdle behind Crambo, but the four outings since have not given me any confidence at all.

    #1688361
    Avatar photovikingflagship
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2982

    No he hasn’t but he is a spring horse, hoping for better ground then we have had all winter even at Cheltenham ground he hated

    VF x

    #1688363
    Avatar photoGingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 34704

    Spot on VF, Kitty’s Light’s form in the past is a lot better in the Spring than it is at any other time of year, Trainer’s horses generally are in better form at that time of year too. Very similar to Corach Rambler / Lucinda Russell.

    Kitty’s will need to improve though and he’ll probably need the weather to dry up a bit.

    Value Is Everything
    #1688365
    Avatar photoWilts
    Participant
    • Total Posts 3369

    Genuine decent Spring jumping ground looks unlikely though, this year.

    Admittedly, the GN is still 2+ weeks away, but there’s no real sign, weatherwise for a change for the better…..yet.

    #1688367
    KendalCavalier
    Participant
    • Total Posts 428

    I think for all of Elliott’s numbers his horses are like the Pipe entries of old this year. Regressive, badly handicapped and not good enough. The X Country form is utter garbage going back to last year’s race at the Festival. The three races over the X Country fences going back to last years Festival have yielded just one subsequent winner and that was Latenightpass on his second attempt over the same course.

    #1688368
    TheTinMan87
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1412

    There is one Elliott horse who has a chance but he probably won’t get his ground, clue is he’s not one of the regressive group

    I think even if Kitty’s gets his ground he’s handicapped out of winning this but he could run into a place. He’s not a 150’s horse I don’t think.

    #1688371
    Avatar photoHe Didnt Like Ground
    Participant
    • Total Posts 9118

    Anyone who thinks Galvin is regressive wants to watch his last run , he’s been ran to bring his handicap down

    Pick 3 on Saturday champion 2025/2026

    #1688377
    Avatar photoGingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 34704

    Is Elliott running Fury Road just to stop another trainer from having a runner?

    Value Is Everything
    #1688380
    Mike007
    Participant
    • Total Posts 9607

    “Anyone who thinks Galvin is regressive wants to watch his last run , he’s been ran to bring his handicap down”

    He has regressed tbf. Running in x countrys having run in a Gold Cup and winning a grade 1 before. An official rating of 155 as a 10 year old isn’t exactly a gimme either compared to others in the lineup. Yes he is lower rated now than he was but is it still too high? And has to prove his course suitability having made a mistake and UR at fence 1 last year. If the race falls apart a bit he may get involved but there are some younger ones who may well do better.

    #1688383
    greenasgrass
    Participant
    • Total Posts 9157

    “Is Elliott running Fury Road just to stop another trainer from having a runner?”

    None of horses 35-45 are Elliott trained so I expect he will leave all of his old no hopers in as blockers.

    Fury Road at least will give his owners a day out but that’s all- Gigginstown only get rid when a horse is well and truly done. He fell at the 2nd fence last year and has had a total of 4 starts this year, beating a total of 3 horses across the finish line. He has been made to finish each time to get his mark down I assume, rather than being allowed to pull up, even though he has been beaten a total of 292 1/4 lengths in these starts- so an average of 73l. The closest he got to the winner was 34 1/2 when last of the finishers in a hurdle race and his most recent start was Ireland’s main Grand National trial, the Bobbyjo, beaten 55l “In rear throughout, detached from 4 out, tailed off”

    That’s the kind of horse that Ruby Walsh had in mind when he suggested rule changes to get “best current form” horses into the race rather than being blocked out of it by fading lights. I don’t think Fury Road is any more likely than the other 33 to suffer a fatal injury in the race, but if he does have that misfortune, the optics are going to be particularly poor.

    I believe that the reduction in runners from 40 to 34 makes the use of blocker horses even more worthwhile from a trainer POV (well, realistically, from an Elliott POV) as he can control a greater % of the field and there is no downside bar entry fees- he can leave the blockers in up to final decs then work out if he has to take any out or not depending on where his other horses sit on the reserve list and which is the least worst, reserve horse or blocker. I think somebody else upthread may have already made this point about the reduction in field size encouraging the use of blocker horses.

    #1688415
    Avatar photopeter .h
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1889

    He did it in 2019 (when he arguably didn’t need to) to ensure the path of least resistance for Tiger Roll. If ever there was a Mickey Mouse Grand National, that was it. I consider myself a Grand National purist, but I don’t think I’ve watched that race more than twice.

    He has 10 guaranteed a run as it stands, and I can’t see any defecting including his two still in the Irish National. Mullins also has 10, but I can see two or three of them not going. But as it stands we have 20 runners split between two trainers with an average price of 54/1 :wacko:

    I strongly suspect the entry conditions will be changed between now and next year to prevent anything similar happening again. At the very least I can see the “chase runs” will become “completed chase runs” and it being increased from 6 to 8. I’ve never seen so many runners with less than 8 starts to their names.

    #1688420
    Avatar photoGingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 34704

    Exactly my point on Fury Road, Green’.

    The “Bobbyjoe beaten 55 lengths” is actually even worse than that. Racing Post say the fourth of four Fury Road was beaten a “distance” or “55+ L”.

    Timeform give the total distance Fury Road was beaten as 124 lengths back from winner I Am Maximus and 99 lengths from just the third horse.

    Value Is Everything
Viewing 17 posts - 341 through 357 (of 632 total)
  • You must be logged in to reply to this topic.