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It will be interesting to see if Delta Work can come back to form in the X country. If not then I can see Timeform dropping his rating.
Minella Indo is currently 5/2 fav for the X Country, 9/2 Delta Work, 5/1 Galvin, 13/2 Coko Beach, 16/1 Foxy Jacks and 20/1 Latenightpass… X Country is going to have a big say with the top 6 in the betting there all entered in the National.
Chemical Energy could be well handicapped if returning to last year’s National Hunt Chase form.
I Am Maximus could be unexposed as a stayer, but imo (even with the changes) probably does not have the jumping prowess or temperament needed for the Grand National… And he is also favourite for a repeat Irish National on April 1st. Will he be going to both?
Value Is EverythingI’m holding off now for as long as possible in this, and I’ll wait until the week before at least for the more sensible selections. What I will guarantee that I’ll do is bet old Fiddlerontheroof if he lines up.
“Chemical Energy could be well handicapped if returning to last year’s National Hunt Chase form.”
National winners usually have 3 runs in a season including one in the same calendar year, Chemical Energy unlikely to get more than 2.
“I Am Maximus could be unexposed as a stayer, but imo (even with the changes) probably does not have the jumping prowess or temperament needed for the Grand National… And he is also favourite for a repeat Irish National on April 1st. Will he be going to both?”
He’ll run in this only I would think.
I know Cromwell regards bringing horses to Britain as getting money for old rope. I don’t understand why the handicapper should be so accommodating for him. It seems Vanillier’s mark was 152 following his 2nd last year. The trainer has chosen to run him in races not suited to his talents this season. Nothing very shrewd about that IMHO but the handicapper has been dull enough to knock a pound off
. I should think Ronnie Bartlett is pleased with the handicapper although Dusart looks like a token Hendo entry.
I’ll part with a few bob on Glengouly if he’s there on the day but not before
A race which has little or no interest for me. Might enquire if I can bet on the number of UK runners, my guess would be six.
The things I want most in life are the things that I can't win.
Don’t really understand the Galvin gamble.
Even though well handicapped on his best form…
Seems as though has pretty much proved in those X Countries he’s not the horse of old.
…And has seemed a bit temperamental and inconsistent too.
Not one that would take to Aintree?Value Is EverythingGalvin’s visit to Aintree for last year’s National was a disaster. He unseated at the first and then got involved in a nasty accident while running loose.
I wouldn’t be surprised if that experience has taken some time to get over. His most recent run was slightly more promising, and the Galvin of old would of course have a huge chance off his current mark. But recent Nationals have gone to more progressive types, and I can’t get overly enthused about his chances.
Galvin was a huge eye catcher last time , if Conflated does indeed go the Ryanair then he looks to me the likely winner of the cc , as for the GN you do worry he remembers last year but if he’s ok then he could run well , I have a e.w CC/GN double on him so I do hope he runs well
Got Latenightpass here and also for Cheltenham cross country along with Minella Indo
VF x
Good luck with your Galvin bet HDLG. Similarly to Conflated, he’s one of those horses who at his peak is very close to the best without quite being there.
In many stables he would be a huge star, but horses like him seem to drift into the background in the huge Mullins/Elliott battalions. After his novice campaign I thought he looked a future National winner, and I would like to see him run well especially after last year.
After another look at the race. I think Noble Yeats has a huge chance of regaining the crown.
Only beaten 8L last season after a gruelling campaign in which the National was only an afterthought.
This season, The National is his No1 target and he’s been better looked after by Mullins.
He’s also :
14lb better off with Corach Rambler
5lb better off with VanillierIf he’s on top form, I can’t see what beats him unless it’s a really low weighted horse like Kitty’s Light.
My 3 for the race :
Kitty’s Light
Noble Yeats
Capodanno“If Willie Mullins and Gordon Elliott run all their entries..”
They won’t.
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Elliott has said he’ll be aiming “8 or 10” at the race.
Yep, and it will be the last time too.
Sad, but I think he could be given the Tony Martin treatment by the handicapper in future years too.Value Is EverythingElliott has said he’ll be aiming “8 or 10” at the race.
But not all will be Giggiinstown owned. Be others for, other owners trained by him like Galvin, Stattler etc So if there owners want to run these horses under his training they will
How many did he train who ran last year sure was similar
VF x
Elliott had five runners as did Mullins. Twenty six of the forty runners came from Ireland. I suspect the sway to Ireland will be somewhat different this year.
The things I want most in life are the things that I can't win.
Ash Tree Meadow is an odd one.
I say that, as he’s entered for the Newlands Chase at Naas on Sunday. That’s a Grade 3, but over only 2 miles. And, excuse me if I am wrong, but he isn’t qualified under the “horses must have been placed first, second, third or fourth in a chase with an official distance description of ‘2m 7f 110yds’ or more” restriction as far as I can tell. So, despite being no.8 in the weights off 159, work needs to be done to ensure he lines up on 13th April.
He did win the Galway Plate in August though that is over 2m 6f 111 yards, which is the longest race he’s ever run under rules. Ash Tree Meadow did win a PTP over 3m in 2021, so my question is…do PTP results count? (I suspect not).
Weird why he isn’t in the Bobbyjo on Saturday as would only have to beat one home to qualify from finishing first four in that race. He is entered in the Ryanair and the Plate at Cheltenham, both over 2m 4f, and not in any longer event.
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