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Have a look at the draw numbers of the four in the frame in the 5.10. Worth noting for big fields.
….. and if you look at the betting for the contest I think you will notice your little bit of "insight" isn’t that much of a surprise to others.
Beware just jumping on this bandwagon based on one race! Yes those in the frame were well drawn but race was run at a slow looking pace and those in the frame weren’t exactly unfancied. As long as the pace of the race is good then I feel the draw bias is less. Especially if a horse drawn low is a hold up performer.
Beware just jumping on this bandwagon based on one race! Yes those in the frame were well drawn but race was run at a slow looking pace and those in the frame weren’t exactly unfancied. As long as the pace of the race is good then I feel the draw bias is less. Especially if a horse drawn low is a hold up performer.
Yes, the slower the pace the greater chance of well drawn runners, even more so prominent well drawn runners. But even in a true pace they still are advantaged.
One great Pro Gambler once asked me "When does it actually pay to be poorly drawn"?
Answer: "When the pace is too strong". Those hold up horses who are poorly drawn have to drop in behind the pack. So therefore are running at the "best pace" (those in front going too fast), so can come through and win.
At Goodwood this seldom happens because those at the head of affairs can usually slow it down at the beggining of the turn (hence the faller yesterday being caught out). Only if there are many front runners in a race are poorly drawn hold up performers likely to get involved. I’d say poorly drawn prominent runners are more likely to do well, if there aren’t too many prominent runners on the inside (does not need to over exert to reach the front). Unless there’s a break-neck pace a prominent position is often more important than draw.
Will be interesting in the 5:45 today, Celtic Sultan, Mujood (ran yesterday), Kings Wonder, Noble Citizen, Spanish Bounty and Clifton Dancer, possibly Proclaim and Makaaman too; all like to be up there.
Value Is Everything
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