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I really hope both horses drift from 6/4 out to 25/1 and get funny rides next time out.
I wonder them if the public is so forgiving and pin everything down to a bad back and the stable being out of the form.
- Total Posts 17716
Okay so Bishopbriggs sometimes misses the break and that is why he sometimes cannot lead, it’s damn lucky for connections that every time the cash has been down on him that he has come out of the gates like a bullet from a gun.
But he does not win every time he comes out "like a bullet from the gun". I’ve checked his record, and although certainly all four of his wins (from 38 runs) have come in races where he has had an uncontested lead, he certainly doesn’t usually win when racing from the front.
Occasions where he led and finished down the field include: 19/5/8, 24/5/8, 20/9/8, 31/10/8, 12/11/8, 20/12/8, 4/2/9 (he didn’t race throughout most of the rest of 2009, as he had problems.)
Many of his other losing runs have comments such as "chased leaders", or "tracked leaders". Two of his more recent "never prominent" or "held up" races were under a 7lb claiming apprentice, two of the others under Micky Fenton, and Adam Kirby has not often ridden him.
Only one RP comment on all his races specifies "taken back, steadied" at the start.
His record reads much as you’d expect from a horse with limited ability, and some physical problems, who can win when the cards fall absolutely right but who doesn’t on the majority of occasions.
If Mr Quinlan felt he was unusually right physically, in a race not full of natural front runners, then his feeling that "today was the day" is understandable – though even his trainer cannot have felt the horse was a certainty, given his mixed record when leading from the gate.
The "Coup" (such as it was) relied on getting the double up, and was by no means assured. I cannot see that anything – anything – has been hidden in the case of Bishopbriggs from those "disillusioned" punters.
The horse only became a gambling medium when the Quinlans started training him, Pinza. The performance pattern DJ refers to started shortly after they took over (January, last year) and not with his 3 previous trainers (the races you refer to).
- Total Posts 17716
The horse only became a gambling medium when the Quinlans started training him, Pinza. The performance pattern DJ refers to started shortly after they took over (January, last year) and not with his 3 previous trainers (the races you refer to).
Since his first race for the Quinlans (30 Dec 09) after his long lay off through injury, he has "chased leaders" or been prominent behind the front on three occasions, from the nine he’s lost. He has also won three times from the front. That makes six out of twelve runs from the front or thereabouts.
So the "performance pattern" under Quinlan (as previously) is that he wins from the front, but not always. There’s only been one race during this period in which a jockey decision to
consciously
hold him up has been noted by RP. That was under Jerry O’Dwyer, who hadn’t ridden him before or since, last April.
As a "gambling medium" this makes him far from ideal, don’t you agree?
what did people think of the run before the gamble. Go back and watch it first though.
Wayhey! I can post again!
I watched them all the other day Kristian and the last 2 in particular caught my eye. The one before the one you mention was a real eye-catcher and probably confirmed to connections the horse wasn’t far off a winning mark with it finishing pretty close at the end having made quite a lot of ground up. If it had got a bullet start in that race it would have won easily IMO…
The race you mention…my initial thought was that there was a big enough gap to go up the rail but Fenton did everything he could NOT to go through it. It’s quite difficult to tell the size of the gap because of the camera angle so if I’m wrong I apologise sincerely. In my view though the horse was pulling Fenton’s arms out and if he had ridden the horse instead of reigning it back then I think the horse would have got to the front quite easily.
That’s the blatant difference in all of this IMO. Adam Kirby throws everything at the horse out of the gates if you go back to it’s 2 earlier wins from wide draws at Wolver (when the money was down!).
None of the other jockeys seem to attempt to do this, most of them seem to be fighting with the horse which is pulling hard most of the time.
Well done on a few nice wins lately anyway, I keep seeing those Koo colours coming in. Are you hopeful of another win tomorrow?
If we look at Tell Halaf since he has been with current connections, starting with his first run ;
BHA Rating S.P. Position
73 22/1 Next to last
72 25/1 Last
70 40/1 Last
66 50/1 Last
62 33/1 Next to Last
57 33/1 Beat 3 homeNow off 54 goes off 9/4 having opened 3s, including bets of £700 to £2450, and £450 to £1125.
I guess someone knew something !
Its obvious that Quinlan knows how to train a horse when the moneys down.
I think that most of us just wished that we were in on the info.
I have a great deal of sympathy for connections of horses running for the prizemoney generally available in lower quality races. Who can blame them for going for a touch. After all training fees have got to be paid.
Punters in this type of event should be wary of the risks in my opinion.Funnily enough I included both horses in a speculative 50p lucky 15. I did so on the basis that the exchange prices were a bit lower than the bookmaker’s so it looked like I had a slight advantage.
Unfortunately the day after this accidental coup the bookmaker decided to restrict my account. Perhaps they (wrongly) think I am in the know. So I suppose I am now one of the hordes of disillusioned punters as a result of these shenanigans.
Nevertheless I think there is hope for punters if they don’t rely too heavily on form. Form alone only works in certain circumstances and as our discussion shows, it would have been clear to anyone studying these races (which I didn’t at the time) that other factors needed to be considered. In particular the reasons why horses with poor form are entered in a race need to be analysed very carefully.
On a slightly different note, I have some sympathy with the handicappers. It remains the case that top-weighted horses win disproportionately. The obvious remedy is to downgrade weaker horses a bit faster and I understand this is Phil Smith’s approach. Although this plays into the hands of non-tryers, the handicapper must assume that the horse is trying unless proven otherwise. I don’t see an easy way round this problem.
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I watched them all the other day Kristian and the last 2 in particular caught my eye. The one before the one you mention was a real eye-catcher and probably confirmed to connections the horse wasn’t far off a winning mark with it finishing pretty close at the end having made quite a lot of ground up. If it had got a bullet start in that race it would have won easily IMO…
I have watched the race (6 Aug, Lingfield) again and again, and, for my money, the horse was visibly restrained at the start, which is not something you’d expect to see in a horse whose trainer had already indicated he needed to lead. In neither of the other 2 races in question (disregarding the tardy starts) was he ridden like a horse with that particular ambition, either.
Even allowing for the various excuses/reasons postulated for those 3 rides, no one has yet given a satisfactory answer as to why they weren’t queried, or indeed the very different betting when he won, which tells us everything we need to know about racing’s real concerns for what’s laughably called ‘integrity’.
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