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Tiger Woods is hoping to win his first Major of the year in the USPGA and arrives in good form having won comfortably at Bridgestone last week. This Major is the easiest to win imo but this course is no pushover and the expected hot temps and humidity will make things extra difficult for the players. The par 70 course only has 2 par 5’s and there will be little advantage for the big hitters which puts me off backing Mickelson, Els and Singh. A lot of the top players arrive here in moderate form apart from Tiger and Furyk ( who is unfortunately suffering from a back problem and may not start ).
Good ball striking off the tee and iron play could win this tournament. This should suit Luke Donald but he has not been playing as well as usual recently so he’s another player I won’t be backing. There are a lot of players I don’t fancy to win this so I have bet on Tiger Woods at odds of 7/2 which is reasonable value. I rarely back favs but Tiger cannot be ignored in his present mood.
I have to back Adam Scott simply because I think he can win a major one day ( maybe not the Masters though ) so my money will be on him until he does. He did play well in the final 2 rounds last week which is promising.
One player who won’t mind the heat and humidity is the S/Korean K.J.Choi who has been in the best form of his career so far this year. This par 70 course should suit his style of play and he looks good value imo.
Andres Romero came close to winning the Open and then won in France before playing well again last week. His present form cannot be ignored so he’s my third selection. There are doubts whether he has the experience to win a Major but his confidence is high at the moment.
I was never a Justin Rose backer until this year but his game has improved imo and he’s saved his best performances this year for the top events. He’s a very good putter I think he’ll have a great chance if he can improve his accuracy.
Others to consider are Hunter Mahan who has been playing good golf since obtaining his maiden pga win at the Travelers Championship, Trevor Immelman who showed his first decent form for a long while in the last 2 rounds last week and T.Clark who has also been playing his best golf of the year in the last few weeks.
Good luck to anybody who has a bet.Nice review, SC, certainly gave me some hints, especially regarding Adam Scott. I’ll give weight to your argument about lack of emphasis on length by pointing out that this course hosted the 2001 US Open, won by Retief Goosen. The Goose seems a bit off-colour to me, and his PGA record is poor so I’ll be leaving him well alone, but remember who he beat in the play-off? Mark Brooks, one of the very shortest hitters on tour at the time. For me this further emphasises the point that length of the tee will be a minimal factor this week. For my each way bet, I’ll be looking at someone along the lines of Chris DiMarco or Kenny Perry. The later has made the top 15 in his last 6 starts, and was right up at the business end of the leader board last week before closing with a tired 75. At time of going to print, available on BF at 17 for a top 5, and 7.2 for a top 10.
Had last week taken place anywhere but his beloved Firestone, I’d be piling into Tiger Woods. Back in the competitive mindset, he has the confidence and the form to lead early, something which he hasn’t managed in a Major so far this year, and once Tiger leads we all know that 9 times out of 10 it’s Game Over for the field. So I’ll still be backing him, but trying not to get carried away.
BTW, please, please PLEASE can you tell me where you got 7/2 about him? He’s 2/1 with bookmakers and 3.15 on BF as far as I can see!
Cheers Friggo and I wouldn’t put you off Kenny Perry as he’s improved a lot during the last few weeks and I can see this course suiting his style of play. I thought that you may back Romero as I remember you rated him in the past.
I should have made it clearer that I bet on Tiger some time ago……..well, the 24th of July to be exact and I got odds of 4.6 on Betfair which is just over 7/2. I bet on him mainly because of there being so many of the top players out of form and I just didn’t fancy the chances of many others. It is the first time I have ever bet on Tiger and I won’t win a fortune if he wins but it would be nice to back the winner of a major as I’ve never managed it yet.
Good preview SC.
Unfortunately I had to take a 3 week holiday just before The Open so I didn’t get chance to do any previews for the recent top events. As you have done a great preview here and sussed up the course and conditions really well, then I won’t add anymore other than to give my selections.
Like you, I very rarely back Woods and I am afraid I missed the boat when 7/2 was available. He has been nowhere near his best this year – until last week that was, but I personally think he will struggle to repeat that form on a course that surely won’t suit his game. But then again, I have never seen a better player in the world at most aspects of the game, and whether he misses fairways or not, he is always likely to hit it close. I just feel he will miss a few too many fairways this week.
So to my selections. Well I’ve waited almost to the last minute for an update on Jim Furyk and as far as I know he is playing so he has to be one of my selections. He has performed well in the top events this year and if he tee’s it up he will be returning after an impressive win 2 weeks ago. He is a straight hitter, a great iron player and generally a good putter – and as they say, beware of the injured golfer.
In my preview for an event about 6 weeks ago I think I stated that I would never back Justin Rose until he finishes an event off as he has had so many winning opportunities without getting the job done. But like you, I am so impressed by his attitude, as well as his game this year that I have to make him one of my selections.
I have also had a flutter on Vijay Singh because of his record and love affair with the USPGA Championship, and i’ve had a bet on KJ Choi, much for the reasons you have already stated. I’ve backed the four i’ve mentioned with hard cash, but just to give you an idea of how i’ve split my stake here’s my picks on a 10 unit staking plan.
Furyk @ 20/1 – 3 units
Singh @ 22/1 – 3 units
Choi @ 40/1 – 2 units
Rose @ 28/1 – 2 unitsI have to admit I haven’t really had a good look at the field or the bigger priced contenders in detail as I won’t get to watch Friday and Saturday’s action. For that reason I didn’t really shop around for prices, though I think the 40’s on Choi is very generous. Hopefully at least a few of these 4 can be in contention when I get back on Saturday night, but if not, I could always have a bet on Sunday morning – provided Tiger is not 8 clear that is lol.
Take care, and good luck with your selections.
Mike
Tiger looking good SC, Tiger looking very good.
He might have a chance from here I reckon
Mike
Yes Mike but can he cope with the burden of having my money on him to win – it’s usually a curse to most players
Tiger should win now but golf can be very unpredictable which is probably why I enjoy having a bet on it.
Do you have players who you never have any luck with when you back them? I think that Choi is turning into one of them for me…….must be the 5th time at least that I’ve bet on him and he’s never come close. As soon as I ignore his chances then he’ll go and win
Yep, hopefully our money’s safe from here, SC. Haven’t seen yesterday’s action yet, but seemingly Woods was nothing short of breathtaking! Good vision to back him AP just after the Open.
Yep, hopefully our money’s safe from here, SC. Haven’t seen yesterday’s action yet, but seemingly Woods was nothing short of breathtaking! Good vision to back him AP just after the Open.
Yes he was breathtaking Friggo. I was supposed to be out last night but cancelled at that last minute so watched the golf with a few beers instead and it was a joy to watch his performance. I just wish that last putt had of dropped to give him the lowest round in Major history – a 62 – though on his current form, he could well do it over the weekend
SC, yes I have a few golfers who seem cursed when I back them, no more than Tiger Woods. Everytime I think he is a good bet, mainly because I can’t see anyone else winning, I lump on him and he has a stinker lol. Also Luke Donald has done nothing everytime I hav backed him, nor has Choi, Garcia, Mickelson, Fasth, Romero, Singh, Furyk, Toms, Johnson, Els, Verplank, Bjorn, Westwood, Harrington, Clarke, Rose, Funk, Daly, Micheel,……………. oh, do you want me to continue
Tiger should be a certainty from the position he is in so I think I will go and have a few bets on the winner without Tiger. Those bets will be Adam Scott & Niclas Fasth, both at 16’s – so that’s them sunk then lol.
Good luck one and all.
Mike
woods. In future i am gonna bet without the favourite,, he just keeps coming back even from an average (ish) start. Doh! Backed Scott on betfair to win, what was I thinking??
Well done SC and Friggo.
Another expensive tournament for me though.
Oh well, just a few days before the Scandanavian Masters starts lol. I haven’t got Setanta Sports where the general PGA Tour events are shown. How the hell did Sky Sports lose out to Setanta for one of their flag bearing sports is beyond me lol.
Mike
The golf on Setanta isn’t that good but it’s worth getting Mike as the package includes RUK, 46 premiership games and lots of scottish and non league matches if you like to bet in running on the soccer which I do. Only £15 per month……….OMG, I sound like a salesman
Tiger was not at his best last night but won his 13th major and provided me with my first winning bet on a major since I started betting on golf 4 years ago………oh, backing Tiger to win a major – have I discovered a new winning formula
I always like to evaluate the results of golf tournaments to try and identify any future winners so here goes –
Ernie Els — Another solid performance from the big man. He is not the force that he was a few years ago imo and has not won in the USA for at least 2 years. He has not won anywhere so far this year but rarely goes a year without a victory and I think he will win a tournament in 2007 but it may be in Europe or his home country. Problem with backing ernie is that his odds are often not much value.
Justin Rose — An improved player this year and this country’s best hope of a major winner imo. He played well again at the PGA but has to improve his accuracy off the tee etc – a ranking of 101 in the driving accuracy pga stats sums this problem up really.
Adam Scott — A player with lots of natural talent so it was disappointing to see him finish 12th in the PGA as he has the game to do a lot better. Some golf pundits state that the surfing loving Adam is too easy going and lacks the ambition and drive to become a major winner but I think he will do it one day. His next scheduled tournament is the Barclays Classic where he finished 2nd last year so I will probably be drawn into betting on him again there.
Geoff Ogilvy — Not a player I bet on that often but he put up his best performance for some time when finishing 6th last week and may be worth considering in the next few weeks if his odds offer value.
Trevor Immelman — Voted the Rookie of the year in 2006 and has a good future ahead of him and will eventually replace Ernie as the top S/African golfer imo. He caught the virus from hell at the Masters and was hospitalised and lost over 2 stone in weight. It’s taken time for him to recover but his 6th last week is very encouraging and he may be worth following now as it was at about this time last year that he showed some good form including a win in september.
Joe Durant — Started the year badly but this was because of the death of a member in his family and his recent two top twenty finishes indicate that he may be returning to the form he showed at the end of last year. He’s very accurate with his driver and tee to green game but needs to improve his putting. My money will be on him this week at the Wyndham where he finished 6th last year and I hope the heat at the PGA will not have made him too tired.
OK that’s six guys I have highlighted …….which probably means that not one of them will win before the end of this year
Good summary SC, and thanks for the tip regarding Setanta. I have RUK alone and have been paying £20 a month for about 2 years lol. Just spoke to Setanta who said they will give me their package for £5 a month for the first 3 months and then £15 a month from then on.
I owe you a drink mate
Cheers.Regarding the golf, I don’t think KJ Choi has finised with winning yet. He continue to play well and is usally double the odds of Sing and Mickelson, Goosen etc who are playing nowhere near as good. Justin Rose continues to impress me also and I totally agree that if he can find a few more fairways he could well go on a hot streak as the rest of his game is solid.
Luke Donald continues to disapoint me, but his price is starting to drift accordingly for tournaments and I am sure he will hit form soon. As for Adam Scott, I just can’t have that guy for some reason – he does seem way too relaxed and doesn’t seem to put his best foot forward all the time – i’m not sure that’s true, but it just seems that way. Ian Poulter has had a very consistent year also without ever really threatening in the big events. He seems to have got over this "I will win everything" attitude and he seems to have knuckled down a little.
A bit like a group horse dropping into a seller, I feel the thats how you could describe Poulter and Rose if they come over for some of the big European events later in the year. Yes they will have the likes of Monty, Westwood, Clarke, Howell etc in there, but people like Harrington, Fasth, Rose and Poulter are far better players at present in my opinion.
All the best,
Mike
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