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Fillies & Mares – Ascot
87 points @ 2/1 (PP) Seventh Heaven* (min 7/4)25 points @ 14/1 (Sky) Queen’s Trust* (min 12/1)
savers:
4 points @ 33/1 (SJ) Pretty Perfect (min 28/1)
6 points @ 22/1 (betfair) Bateel (min 20/1) (£32 available)
14 points @ 7/1 (B365) Journey (min 7/1)Betting without Seventh Heaven:
17 points @ 8/1 (B365) Queen’s Trust* (min 7/1)Value Is EverythingQEII
26 points each way @ 16/1 (PP) Lightning Spear* (min 11/1)24 points @ 12/1 (PP) Awtaad* (min 10/1)
Savers:
29 points @ 11/4 (FD) Richester (min 11/4)
3 points @ 41/1 (betfair) Hathal (min 33/1)(5 available)Value Is EverythingChampion Stakes – Ascot 3:45
25 points @ 14/1 (B365) Jack Hobbs* (min 12/1)Value Is EverythingChampion Stakes – Ascot 3:45
25 points @ 14/1 (B365) Jack Hobbs* (min 12/1)22 points @ 20/1 (Sportsook) US Army Ranger* (min 16/1)
Value Is EverythingChampion Stakes – Ascot 3:45
25 points @ 14/1 (B365) Jack Hobbs* (min 12/1)22 points @ 20/1 (Sportsook) US Army Ranger* (min 16/1)
65 points @ 5/2 (B365) Found* (min 85/40)
15 points @ 15/2 (PP) Fascinating Rock (min 15/2)Value Is EverythingChampion Long Distance Cup: 1:25 Ascot
125 points @ 5/6 (B365) Order Of St George* (min 4/5)
savers:
10 points @ 14/1 (B365) Litigant (min 12/1)
12 points @ 12/1 (PP) Quest For More (min 12/1)Value Is EverythingGood luck Ginge what a great days racing ahead. Notice you’re covering some of Aiden O’Brien’s bigger price runners,he is making quite a habit of winning with the outsider of late
I’ve taken the chance that Hit It A Bomb may recover his 2yo form on that basis.
You said Gosden in cracking form (Shalaa ) and hoping he might win the Balmoral Handicap with REMARKABLE if you discount his last run he has a great turn of foot.
Hope you turn in a good profit today, are you posting up in the TRF/Talking Horses comp?
JacThings turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Good luck Ginge what a great days racing ahead. Notice you’re covering some of Aiden O’Brien’s bigger price runners,he is making quite a habit of winning with the outsider of late
I’ve taken the chance that Hit It A Bomb may recover his 2yo form on that basis.
You said Gosden in cracking form (Shalaa ) and hoping he might win the Balmoral Handicap with REMARKABLE if you discount his last run he has a great turn of foot.
Hope you turn in a good profit today, are you posting up in the TRF/Talking Horses comp? JacAOB second strings are often under-estimated Jac, although wish Heffernan wasn’t on them. Hit It A Bomb won me a bit over in the USA, wonder whether whatever stopped him running early season is holding him back. Unlike 2015 hasn’t found a great deal after travelling well in recent starts. However, there is a chance he’s an Autumn horse, not seen until September at two.
I’d be more GM Hopkins than Remarkable if I were to get involved – although I can certainly see your way of thinking. Remarkable sometimes ruins his chance by being slowly away and – usually travels well through a race – not sure a mile is going to suit. That said, it’s probably going to suit a hold up horse and ground seems ideal.
In the competition: What a great idea it is. I want value, can’t take a price and horses are shortening all over the place. Will be leaving it as late as possible to put my tips up.
Good luck with your bets today Jac, especially Shalaa!
Value Is EverythingChampion Long Distance Cup: 1:25 Ascot
125 points @ 5/6 (B365) Order Of St George* (min 4/5)
savers:
10 points @ 14/1 (B365) Litigant (min 12/1)
12 points @ 12/1 (PP) Quest For More (min 12/1)LAY 12 points @ 12.5/1 (betfair) Quest For More (min 14/1)
Had another look at the Cadran and QFM had a very hard race.saver:
6 points @ 25/1 (B365) Nearly Caught (min 20/1)Value Is EverythingThanks Ginge and don’t forget your Nap.
We are both so different in the way we back horses but your thoughts are always a welcome and interesting read..Best of luck on the greatest days racing in the flat calendar JacThings turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Not good from me yesterday. I like to look at my bets and consider whether I did anything wrong. Only Journey saver and Lightning Spear each way place picking up any money.
Didn’t have a great deal of luck in running:
Not much pace in the Long Distance Cup, but that was foreseeable. Order Of St George was held up too far back by Moore. However, Simple Verse was only just in front of him early and failed to beat her… so doubt he’d have won anyway.
Straight course draw advantage isn’t easy to predict. Seemed to favour the far side yesterday. Brando and Lighning Spear would’ve gone even closer drawn the other side. Both also coming from further back than ideal.
Seventh Heaven was slowly away and switched to the inner behind them all from a supposedly “poor draw”. She’s a stamina filly at 1m4f and was never going to figure once Frankie (and stable companion Havlin) ignored the front runner/slowed it down. Queens Trust also unsuited by being held up. That said, winner won easy and SH would’ve needed to be at her very best to beat Journey. Not sure the Coolmore filly was at her best even without the pace bias.
In the Champion, Jack Hobbs usually tracks pace, hadn’t run for a long time and rusty out of the stalls. Can’t believe it was the intention to be dropped out. Stable companions were obviously told to make a slowish pace which ended up not suiting the then held up Jack either. Did really well considering also had to come around the whole field. However, wouldn’t have beaten the front two. Found ran her race, just beaten by a better horse (as the Irish version suggested). Gaps coming for the Almanzour as he liked. On the inner mid-way back, had Midterm (on his outer) been able to keep his position… could’ve been different for the French horse. On a side-note, nice to see The Grey Gatsby run a better race.Looking at odds taken and SPs doesn’t look as though I did much wrong: Brando advised 16/1 (SP 14/1), Queen’s Trust 14/1 (SP 11/1), Lighning Spear 16/1 (SP 9/1) and Jack Hobbs 14/1 (SP 7/1) all placed. Most of the other main bets shortened considerably too; Order Of St George advised 5/6 (SP 4/6), Shalaa 11/2 (SP 4/1), Twilight Son 15/2 (SP 5/1), Seventh Heaven 2/1 (SP 5/4) and US Army Ranger 20/1 (SP 7/1).
Don’t know what the betfair SPs were, but most wouldn’t have been near a lot of those prices taken. If getting a lot better than SP with so many bets – then profit will be made overall.I got out of Awtaad late (sorry, didn’t have time to put it up here), because it was evident conditions were firmer than forecast, Found was the only main bet price taken that did not have a shorter SP, took 5/2 SP 5/2.
Do think I made a few mistakes: Didn’t give enough allowance for trainers in form. Gosden is in great form at the moment, saver and main bets Journey and Queens Trust should’ve been switched. Should not have made Order Of St George a main bet after a fairly hard race, wasn’t sure to get pace to suit and trainer not quite in as good form. Under-estimated Sheikhzaiad Road badly – should’ve backed it, hadn’t been to France, ran well last time, consistent and with stable in good form… Comments which also apply to The Tin Man (at least as a saver).
It’s possible that each way bets on the bigger priced main bets from in form yards and discarding the shorties might be the way to go at this time of year. Trouble is, although I usually put up bookmaker prices here, a lot of my bets are betfair (can’t get on with a lot of bookies) and liquidity is usually poor on place and each way betfair markets at the times I want to get on.
We live to fight another day.
Value Is Everything2:25 Newbury
56 points @ 9/4 (Sky) Commander* (min 85/40)
saver:
23 points @ 5/2 (PP) Sound Bar (min 5/2)Value Is Everything
I’ve taken the chance that Hit It A Bomb may recover his 2yo form on that basis.
) and hoping he might win the Balmoral Handicap with REMARKABLE if you discount his last run he has a great turn of foot.
Jac
I’ve taken the chance that Hit It A Bomb may recover his 2yo form on that basis.
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