- This topic has 1,734 replies, 19 voices, and was last updated 10 months, 1 week ago by
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- Posts
“Chester Vase:
(6.4%) £83 @ 5/1 (B365) Square Dalboni (min 9/2)”
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Reduced:
£20 @ 33/1 (BetVictor) Lazy Griff (min 20/1)Value Is Everything“Chester Vase:
(6.4%) £83 @ 5/1 (B365) Square Dalboni (min 9/2)
Reduced:
£20 @ 33/1 (BetVictor) Lazy Griff (min 20/1)”
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Saver:
£55 @ 2.92 (betfair £80 available) Lambourn (min 2.92)Value Is EverythingHad hoped to have a bet in the Cheshire Oaks but it’s too difficult for me to work out.
Value Is EverythingMAY 7TH BETS:
Chester Vase:
(6.4%) £83 @ 5/1 (B365) Square Dalboni (min 9/2)
£20 @ 33/1 (BetVictor) Lazy Griff (min 20/1) 2nd
£55 @ 2.92 (betfair £80 available) Lambourn (min 2.92) 1st
STAKES £158
RETURN £160.60+ £2.60
——————————————————Day’s Profit + £2.60
Betting Bank £13,028.18
Thread Profit + £3,028.18
=====================Value Is Everythingante-post:
Coronation Stakes:
Reduced:
£75 @ 5/1 (Coral) Lake Victoria (min 9/2)Value Is Everything“Ormonde:
Reduced:
£30 @ 25/1 (Laddies) Mount Atlas (min 16/1)”
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(8.5%) £55 @ 3 (betfair £55 available) Absurde (min 2.88)Value Is Everything“Ormonde:
Reduced:
£30 @ 25/1 (Laddies) Mount Atlas (min 16/1)
(8.5%) £55 @ 3 (betfair £55 available) Absurde (min 2.88)”
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Saver:
£5 @ 28/1 (WH) Roaring Legend (min 25/1)Value Is EverythingMAY 8TH BETS:
Ormonde:
£30 @ 25/1 (Laddies) Mount Atlas (min 16/1)
(8.5%) £55 @ 3 (betfair £55 available) Absurde (min 2.88) 3rd
£5 @ 28/1 (WH) Roaring Legend (min 25/1)
STAKES £90– £90.00
————————————————————-Day’s Deficit – £90.00
Betting Bank £12,938.18
Thread Profit + £2,938.18
=====================Value Is Everything“Dee Stakes:
(6.0%) £77 @ 9/2 (Paddy) Space Legend (min 9/2)”
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Another:
(7.1%) £15 @ 9/2 (Laddies) Space Legend (min 4/1) £92 in all.^ Reassessed
Value Is Everything“Dee Stakes:
(6.0%) £77 @ 9/2 (Paddy) Space Legend (min 9/2)
Another:
(7.1%) £15 @ 9/2 (Laddies) Space Legend (min 4/1) £92 in all”
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(4.0%) £52 @ 7/1 (Bet365) Liberty Lane (min 13/2)Value Is Everything“Dee Stakes:
(6.0%) £77 @ 9/2 (Paddy) Space Legend (min 9/2)
Another:
(7.1%) £15 @ 9/2 (Laddies) Space Legend (min 4/1) £92 in all
(4.0%) £52 @ 7/1 (Bet365) Liberty Lane (min 13/2)”
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Partial saver:
£50 @ 3 (betfair £50 available) The Foxes (min 3)Value Is EverythingHuxley (not “Dee” as above)- the reasons for my bets:
My 100% Book on the Huxley:
The Foxes 36% 7/4
Space Legend 23% 100/30
Liberty Lane 15.5% 11/2
Certain Lad 9% 10/1
Bolster 8.5% 11/1
Deepone 6.5% 15/1
Cairo 1.5% 66/1My pace map (in order to produce their bests) reads:
Bolster – front runs / races prominently
Cairo – races prominently / front runs
Certain Lad – races prominently / front runs
Deepone – front runs / races prominently
Liberty Lane – tracks pace
Space Legend – dropped out / held up
The Foxes – tracks pace / front runs / can be held upSo although there isn’t one that absolutely needs to lead, many would like a prominent position and that may well push the early pace along…
…And then there’s my trainer form:
Bolster 6/10
Cairo 5/10
Certain Lad 8/10
Deepone 7/10
Liberty Lane 6/10
Space Legend 9/10
The Foxes 7/10The Foxes has the best form – not by a great deal – and is (of late) pretty consistent… Goes on a firmish surface and although is most often prominent, can run to form held up.
Space Legend has the physical scope to improve (needs to) as a four year old and last year spoiled his chance by sometimes pulling too hard. Drop back to 10f may well suit and (possibly importantly) the vast majority of these like to be up with the pace. Hopefully helping him to settle. Ground no problem.
Liberty Lane probably needed his first run of the season and the possible strong pace should suit (good record in big handicaps which tend to be stronger run). Most of his form is on a bit softer but has run well on a firmish surface. Ryan Moore an obvious plus too.
Something that cannot be said about his stable / owner companion Bolster. Would not surprise me if he’s a late non-runner. Has a very rounded action and thrives on very soft. If he acts and if he gets his ideal posi’ and if they don’t take him on….
Deepone may be a Group 2 winner at two (on softer) but hasn’t run for almost a year. That said, the stable are in pretty good form. Has improvement to find but if acting on the ground is lightly raced so has scope for progression.
Certain Lad ran well last time but got a long soft lead and isn’t far behind the best of these. But at the same time at the age of 9 isn’t going to improve – so is relying on others to be below form. Is pretty consistent but not all will be able to get their favoured position.
Cairo is more inconsistent and looks a bit outclassed. If there weren’t as many prominent runners then I might still have backed him at a massive price – thinking he might get a soft lead – but not imo in this field.Value Is EverythingWin or lose that’s a fantastic post GT, thank you. With regards to pace, I sometimes read certain courses show a bias to front runners or horses being held up. Are you aware of any resource or database that shows pace bias at all uk tracks?
Thanks again for sharing your knowledge and good luck with today’s selections
TN,
Timeform do a write up of each track which not only includes what the advantage is for each course, but also how much advantage and if there’s a different advantage for a particular race distance. So I haven’t looked elsewhere.I don’t really like basic stats either of what percentage of horses win when front running. Because they don’t take into account odds. Shorter odds horses will have had a better chance than outsiders, therefore expectation of each horse’s finishing position needs to be taken into account in those percentage stats. Also, if the average number of runners per race is greater at a racecourse the fewer front runners will win. Because there will always only be one front runner in a race whereas the number of holdup horses varies. So the percentage number of front running winners per number of races is not that accurate a guide if it does not account for the average field.
I do like to take into consideration what are speed or stamina favouring courses too, especially in sprint races.
Wind speed and direction (combined with pace) can be even more important at heath / open courses. eg Enabled me to back / tip two 100/1+ winners. Arabian Queen (International at York) and Outbox (Jockey Club Stakes Newmarket).
Value Is Everything
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