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Brilliant Mark, appreciate the reply. I’ll have a look on the Timeform website.
Thanks, StevenGT had a long look at the card and then heard about the watering issues etc, this is from the BHA website
Good to Firm
BHA Course Inspector has approved Turf Track as fit and safe for racing. *** WATERING TO IMPROVE then MAINTAIN ***
so being a bit of a ‘chicken’ I’ve ducked out of a bet
That’s interesting nwalton, Thanks.
I see at 8.30 this morning Turftrax rated the going at 7.9. That is supposedly exactly “Good ground” at most courses… And yet the Clerk is calling it officially Good-firm.Are they now doing Official going reports by what they believe the ground will be?
ie Saying now what they believe it will be @ 1:15 tomorrow afternoon.
I remember the old Clerk at Haydock (Mr Tellwrong) saying he allowed for this despite the BHA saying the Official Going Report should be what it is at that moment.Or – with Clerks supposedly trying to achieve good-firm – has the Lingfield Clerk just marked his own homework as 10 out of 10?
As you imply, it is tricky having a bet when the Official is not the same as Turftrax.
Working this race out I’ve got Spiritual (on Good-Firm ground) as having only a 9% 10/1 chance. Because imo the likelihood is he won’t run to form on a firmish surface. Whereas if it were good ground it would be considerably bigger than 9%. Also, I was close to backing Fair Angellica. Because I’d expect the (at the moment) likely front runner Spiritual to be a non-runner on good-firm (she has a markedly round action)… And if that were the case then Fair Angellica could get a soft lead.tbh If it was actually proper Good ground at 8:30 this morning then after a warm, dry day it could stiill be proper good-firm tomorrow. However, that would obviously depend on how much water they put on. If they are “Maintain”ing the current ground then they’d be maintaining Good ground.
Jeez what a nightmare. As luck would have it I think Cathedral’s chance won’t be effected too much. But my other bets will.
Thanks nwalton.
No more bets at Lingfield tonight.Value Is EverythingIs this the reason I’ve noticed lately far less liquidity in evening before racing betfair markets?
Value Is EverythingSpring Trophy(Haydock):
(8.5%) £110 @ 2/1 (B365) Alyanaabi (min 15/8)Value Is EverythingGT i dont watch many podcasts but at times watch the ATR and last night funny enough they were discussing how bad the liquidity is now overnight and it only warms up an an or to before racing.
British EBF Fillies Handicap:
(8.4%) £86 @ 3.45 (betfair £86 available) Rainbows Edge (min 3.25)Value Is Everything“Spring Trophy(Haydock):
(8.5%) £110 @ 2/1 (B365) Alyanaabi (min 15/8)”
———————————————-
Saver:
£30 @ 5.3 (betfair £30 available) Kikkuli (min 5)Value Is Everything“Spring Trophy(Haydock):
(8.5%) £110 @ 2/1 (B365) Alyanaabi (min 15/8)
Saver:
£30 @ 5.3 (betfair £30 available) Kikkuli (min 5)”
————————————————–
Reduced:
£29 @ 14/1 (B365) Array (min 12/1)Value Is EverythingBritish EBF Fillies Handicap:
(8.4%) £86 @ 3.45 (betfair £86 available) Rainbows Edge (min 3.25)If you’re not on yet I suggest not going in unless there is a bit more confidence in the horse. I’ve noticed in the past that Royal runners seem to have a reappearance target at Ascot and have sometimes needed the run. She’s 4.4 Maybe wait until / unless she gets at least to below 4.
Value Is Everything“British EBF Fillies Handicap:
(8.4%) £86 @ 3.45 (betfair £86 available) Rainbows Edge (min 3.25)”
——————————————————————
Saver:
£36 @ 3.45 (betfair £140 available) Arisaig (min 3.3)Value Is Everything^ On the way back so if you aren’t on yet I suggest getting on the royal runner at 4.
Value Is Everything“British EBF Fillies Handicap:
(8.4%) £86 @ 3.45 (betfair £86 available) Rainbows Edge (min 3.25)
Saver:
£36 @ 3.45 (betfair £140 available) Arisaig (min 3.3)”
——————————————————
Another:
£14 @ 3.85 (betfair £22 available) Rainbows Edge (min 3.25) £100 in all
£6 @ 3.6 (betfair £79 available) Arisaig (min 3.3)Value Is EverythingMAY 9TH BETS:
Huxley Stakes (not “Dee Stakes”):
(6.0%) £77 @ 9/2 (Paddy) Space Legend (min 9/2)
(7.1%) £15 @ 9/2 (Laddies) Space Legend (min 4/1) £92 in all
(4.0%) £52 @ 7/1 (Bet365) Liberty Lane (min 13/2) 3rd
£50 @ 3 (betfair £50 available) The Foxes (min 3) 1st
STAKES £194
RETURN (incl. 7.97% RF) £142.03Day’s Deficit – £51.97
Betting Bank £12,886.21
Thread Profit + £2,886.21
=====================Value Is EverythingMAY 10TH BETS:
British EBF Fillies Handicap:
(8.4%) £86 @ 3.45 (betfair £86 available) Rainbows Edge (min 3.25) 1st
Saver:
£36 @ 3.45 (betfair £140 available) Arisaig (min 3.3) 2nd
£14 @ 3.85 (betfair £22 available) Rainbows Edge (min 3.25)
£6 @ 3.6 (betfair £79 available) Arisaig (min 3.3)
STAKES £142
RETURN £350.60+ £208.60
————————————————–Chartwell:
(6.85%) £88 @ 2/1 (Laddies) Cathedral (min 2/1)
STAKES £88– £88.00
—————————————————
Spring Trophy(Haydock):
(8.5%) £110 @ 2/1 (B365) Alyanaabi (min 15/8) 1st
£30 @ 5.3 (betfair £30 available) Kikkuli (min 5)
£29 @ 14/1 (B365) Array (min 12/1)
STAKES £169
RETURN £330.00+ £161.00
—————————————————Day’s Profit + £281.60
Betting Bank £13167.81
Thread Profit + £3,167.81
=====================Value Is Everything
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