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Irish 1000 Guineas:
33 points @ 14/1 (L) Pretty Pollyanna (min 11/1)
30 points @ 10/1 (PP) East (min 17/2)
savers:
41 points @ 5/2 (B365) Hermosa (min 5/2)
37 points @ 11/4 (B365) Qabala (min 5/2)Value Is EverythingCoronation Cup:
LAY 35 points @ 2.2/1 (betfair) Kew Gardens (min 11/4)Value Is EverythingCoronation Cup:
LAY 35 points @ 2.2/1 (betfair) Kew Gardens (min 11/4)
25 points @ 16/1 (B365) Defoe (min 14/1)Value Is EverythingFound a bet in the listed race at Ayr.
Coronation Cup:
37 points each way @ 4.3/1 (betfair) Viviante (min 4/1)Value Is EverythingManaged to get 5.4/1 matched on betfair and you could try getting that price, but 5/1 is the offer on the blue column now so:
Queen Anne:
55 points @ 5/1 (B365) Mustashry (min 9/2)Value Is EverythingQueen Anne:
55 points @ 5/1 (B365) Mustashry (min 9/2)
32 points @ 9/1 (B365) Le Brivido (min 8/1)Value Is EverythingBit of a flyer but any view on The Revenant in the Queen Anne, Ginger?
Plenty of value pickoffs to be had in the race but the general standard of the ‘established’ types is hardly unattainable.
The Revenant runs in the old Bateel colours with connections always game for a runner at Ascot meetings. Big improver since leaving Hugo Agogo (seems the case with quite a few of his old horses lately). Only raced up to G3 level so far but value for quite a bit more than the result when coming from behind off a slow pace in a Saint-Cloud G3 last time. The bare form obviously smells rather ‘early season’ (and he was fitter than most), although he’s now proven away from a soft surface and looks the type to improve for a strongly-run race in a big field. 50/1 with 365 – maybe goes off somewhere around the 14/1 mark with a run. Haven’t pulled the trigger on it yet but tempted to have a go for a bit of sport.
If turning up The Revenant is going to be nowhere near 50/1, LS; so can see your thinking. But personally that price seems all about liklihood of running. One I’d be interested in on/nearer the day even if having to take a much shorter price. French horses are also imo generally excellent value on day of race markets too.
Yes, he’s now proven on good, but good is still an easy surface and has yet to run on good-firm in 7 starts. That suggests to me connections steer clear of such conditions and has been absent since March/running on that good ground. Is everything OK?
14/1 WAR doesn’t appeal either. May well be a little shorter than that if it’s an easy/soft surface on the day, but if running on the probable good-firm I’d personally expect bigger than 14/1 to be available. With a wide open contest (bar Mustashry) I’d expect a very big field.
Ascot are perhaps the least likely racecourse to water (or if doing so they underwater). Often see innacurate going reports too, ground I’d consider firm described officially as good-firm and sometimes good.
Obviously in theory every horse has a good price, even those who may not like the ground. However, liklihood of running is sometimes extremely difficult if not impossible to quantify. Therefore, with very few exceptions when betting ante-post for Royal Ascot I’d personally stay clear of horses with a fair chance of needing an easy/soft surface in order to run.
Value Is EverythingOne thing you could do regards the liklihood of running, LS; is keep an eye on the exchanges and oddschecker. If seeing The Revenant shortening across the board there may well be an increased chance of running. 33/1 may be better value than 50/1 if you see what I mean?
Value Is EverythingFound a bet in the listed race at Ayr.
Coronation Cup:
37 points each way @ 4.3/1 (betfair) Viviante (min 4/1)That’s in the 4:05 Ayr today, not Corry Cup.
Value Is EverythingHello GT
You mentioned on the other thread you’ve backed Communique at 17/1 but can’t find it on your DLAP thread?
Cheers
BaynetYes Baynet, I took all the 17/1 Communique on betfair and was hoping more would become available so could put it on here. However, now 14/1 top price there so:
Coronation Cup:
LAY 35 points @ 2.2/1 (betfair) Kew Gardens (min 11/4)
25 points @ 16/1 (B365) Defoe (min 14/1)
20 points @ 16/1 (PP) Communique (min 14/1)Value Is EverythingQueen Anne:
55 points @ 5/1 (B365) Mustashry (min 9/2)
32 points @ 9/1 (B365) Le Brivido (min 8/1)
Also got this bet from a long time ago:
25 points @ 20/1 Century Dream
If you haven’t backed Century Dream, DON’T!
May well come back with a lay bet on that one closer to day of race.
Value Is Everything7:05 Sandown (tomorrow)
91 points @ 13/8 (B365) Dee Ex Bee (min 6/4)Value Is EverythingI see Timeform “view” reckon Magna Grecia is a good bet @ 11/10.
Apparently Too Darn Hot hasn’t grown and therefore probably not going to be the/as dominent over three year olds as he was at two. ie Bigger sorts will catch up with him and/or almost catch up. Is he that small? Looked small agaist Telecaster, but most horses would look small against that one.
Personally, I wasn’t that disappointed in TDH’s York performance. No other from the pack closed on the winner. Looked to me as if TDH closed too quickly and that effort (and/or fitness) cost him. Convinced Telecaster is a top notch performer anyway. That said, it wasn’t any improvement on TDH’s 2 year old form and Magna Grecia has improved. On form now, there’s not much between the pair and the Irish horse appears the more likely to improve further. However, I agree the fact they’re coming here suggests TDH is flying at home.
Skardu hasn’t had much racing, could yet improve in to a true Group 1 horse and might end up a fair each way or place only bet. Maybe Shelir is best of the rest, but has quite a bit to find. Can’t see anything else playing. Phoenix Of Spain owes getting a significant pace/sectional advantage for his proximity to TDH at Donny and was much more experienced than MG in the Futurity. Also missed both English and French Guineas due to not being fit after a setback.
Taking emotion/my love of Too Darn Hot out of it, I think (if both behave themselves before the off) Magna Grecia should start the fractional favourite. Neither should be odds-on – which is not what I wanted to say after taking 1.82 Magna! Got around half of my bet laid back at a loss, put 2.02 on the pink column and someone took it which am very grateful. Sadly can’t recommend anyone laying current 2.48.
Might come back before the off with a lay bet on Magna, or backing TDH or Skardu for a place.
Value Is Everything
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