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3:35 Warwick:
48 points @ 7/1 (FD) Missed Approach (min 6/1)32 points @ 7/1 (FD) Sir Mangan (min 13/2)
30 points @ 9/1 (C) Cresswell Breeze (min 8/1)Value Is Everything1:50 Warwick:
72 points @ 9/4 (B365) Duel At Dawn (min 2/1)savers:
31 points @ 3/1 (PP) Ms Parfois (min 11/4)
21 points @ 5/1 (SJ) Flintham (min 9/2)Value Is Everything3:35 Warwick:
48 points @ 7/1 (FD) Missed Approach (min 6/1)32 points @ 7/1 (FD) Sir Mangan (min 13/2)
30 points @ 9/1 (C) Cresswell Breeze (min 8/1)saver:
13 points @ 9/1 (betfair) Indian Castle (min 9/1)Value Is EverythingClarence House Ascot:
31 points each way @ 12/1 (B365) Kylemore Lough (min 8/1)Value Is Everything2:40 Haydock:
81 points @ 7/4 (B365) Chtibello (min 13/8)
saver:
18 points @ 9/2 (PP) Clyne (min 4/1)Value Is Everything3:15 Haydock:
60 points @ 6/1 (B365) Tintern Theatre (min 5/1)
45 points @ 7/1 (betfair) Rock The Kasbah (min 6/1)Value Is Everything3:15 Haydock:
60 points @ 6/1 (B365) Tintern Theatre (min 5/1)
45 points @ 7/1 (betfair) Rock The Kasbah (min 6/1)26 points @ 12/1 (PP) Forest Des Aigles (min 11/1)
saver:
18 points @ 7.6/1 (betfair) Yala Enki (min 15/2)Value Is Everything3:15 Haydock:
60 points @ 6/1 (B365) Tintern Theatre (min 5/1)
45 points @ 7/1 (betfair) Rock The Kasbah (min 6/1)26 points @ 12/1 (PP) Forest Des Aigles (min 11/1)
saver:
18 points @ 7.6/1 (betfair) Yala Enki (min 15/2)I backed Rock The Kasbah ante-post for the Welsh National and they’ve come here instead.
Progressive and goes well in conditions (suited by a test of stamina) and with Hobbs in much better form now. Vibes look good to me.Tintern Theatre has only 5 chases to his name but that means he’s open to plenty of improvement and ran well to be 4th in a biggish field in the Kim Muir. So should be ok here. Only up 4 lbs for the Kempton success seems lenient. Grinder’s pedigree/outlook and is my favourite @ 4/1.
Hainan, ran well last time but is he going to get the lead appears to enjoy in this bigger field with Yala Enki and Highland Lodge to take him on? 6/1 best now, I’d want at least 11/1 to back him!
Highland Lodge. Again, has other front runners to compete with and seems an Aintree specialist. Will he take to this course/these fences? If unable to get a good position (and keep it) can see him throwing in the towel. He’s no “balls-out trier” imo; even at Aintree has been known to give it away on run-in. Ran his race last time but his merit is seemingly fully exposed even if reproducing Aintree form. I’d need double current 20/1 odds to back Highland Lodge here.
Had a saver on Yala Enki just in case he can race prominently and get in to a better rhythm. If so could put up an improved performance with underfoot conditions to suit.
My third main bet is Forest Des Aigles. On a four timer and on a mark 21 lbs higher than the first of them; 8 lbs higher than most recent 6 lengths victory over Wuff in a four runner race – isn’t generous by any means. However, that was his first start at this trip and therefore unexposed at 3m. Steadily progressive and possibly importantly stable are imo in better form now than at any time this season. So two reasons why could up his game once more. Around 12/1 worth taking imo.
I backed Knockanrawley last time out at Newbury, without realising what a poor strike rate he’s got. Either of poor temperament or surely needs further? One paced plodders often place but seldom win. Even if able to keep up I’d have thought possibly one for a place only bet rather than giving away the win part.
Walk In The Mill has a ground doubt, but although would be interesting if this were Ascot, I feel there’s a big question mark about going left-handed.
Colin Tizzard certainly has a question mark hanging above his form and didn’t have any runners at all for 9 days between the 9th and 18th. Wouldn’t be surprised for The Dutchman to improve at some point this season, but whether it’s today – doubtful – has unproven stamina over this trip.
Captain Redbeard has a chance on his last time out Tommy Whittle victory, now on a 9 lbs higher mark. Beat Catamaran Du Seiul 6 lengths with a further 13 back to previous Newcastle scorer Lake View Lad. However, that race probably wasn’t as competitive as it should’ve been, with the two favs Two Faces West and Full Irish disappointing… And that was trainer Stuart Coltherd’s only winner of the season to date.
Irish challenger Fine Rightly didn’t run that well over hurdles last time and hasn’t raced over this far for ages. However, was successful in the Imperial Call in 2016 under similar conditions. One to note if there’s a market move in his favour.
Carole’s Destrier is in theory reasonably handicapped. Now just one pound above the mark that saw him half a length second to Native River in 2016 Hennessey. However, wasn’t seen for almost a year so whether he’s still capable of his best is very doubtful. Especially as not much promise in a poor 8th in the “Ladbroke”/Hennessey on reappearance. Also possible his very best is on better ground and stable yet to really hit form.
Ptit Zig is thrown in on some hurdles form, particularly his french form. That said if capable of that form connections won’t allow him to go off 33/1. But truth is at best he’s inconsistent and at worst firmly on the downgrade. One to ignore unless there’s a positive market move (unlikely).
My 100% Book (figures in brackets my 100% book plus a bookies mark up, to 116.2%):
Tintern Theatre 4/1 (7/2), Rock The Kasbah 5/1 (9/2), Yala Enki 13/2 (6/1), Hainan 9/1 (15/2), Forest Des Aigles 9/1 (15/2), Captain Redbeard 15/1 (13/1), Walk In The Mill 15/1 (13/1), The Dutchman 15/1 (13/1), Knokanrawley 25/1 (20/1), Fine Rightly 28/1 (22/1), Highland Lodge 33/1 (25/1), Carole’s Destrier 100/1 (50/1), Ptit Zig 100/1 (50/1).Value Is Everything3:15 Haydock:
60 points @ 6/1 (B365) Tintern Theatre (min 5/1)
45 points @ 7/1 (betfair) Rock The Kasbah (min 6/1)26 points @ 12/1 (PP) Forest Des Aigles (min 11/1)
saver:
18 points @ 7.6/1 (betfair) Yala Enki (min 15/2)10 points @ 25/1 (B365) Fine Rightly (min 20/1)
Value Is EverythingClarence House Ascot:
31 points each way @ 12/1 (B365) Kylemore Lough (min 8/1)25 points @ 3/1 (VC betting without UDS) Kylemore Lough (min 2/1)
Value Is EverythingNot exactly, Mtoto. Had a week with my girlfriend and her brother so was away from my computer… And am also trying to get my house together in order to sell/move. Will come back to this when having more time/energy for studying.
Value Is EverythingYes, early days yet though Mtoto. Just trying to improve the look of the place a little before getting the valuers in in the Spring.
Value Is Everything
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