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Ryanair Chase
20 points @ 12/1 (WH) Riverside TheatreWith Punchestowns disappointing in the style of his win today and Henderson reluctant to go for the Ryanair. That surely makes Riverside Theatre more likely to go for the race. Especially if winning in style tomorrow (as I expect). Hopefully connections won’t be tempted to supplement for the Gold Cup. Being not yet a certain starter, I’ve reduced the stake slightly, but I think they’d be mad not to go there.
Value Is EverythingTotesport Trophy
21 points @ 12/1 (b365) Soldatino23 points @ 8/1 (b365) Salden Licht
With Choc’s confidence that Walkon is over his fisrt run of the season; 8/1 looks too big for Kingy’s other runner. So warrents a saver. I still think he has chosen the wrong one though.
6 points @ 8/1 (corals) Walkon
And another saver:
5 points @ 10/1 (VC) Final ApproachValue Is Everything3:00 Newbury
21 points @ 7/1 (SJ) Imsingingtheblues
7 points @ 3/1 (T) Tchico PolosValue Is Everything2:25 Newbury
92 points @ 11/10 (b365) Riverside TheatreWas going to wait until at the course and see if Fair Along is fit, but money sugests is ready for today.
Saver:
8 points @ 12/1 (FD) Fair AlongValue Is Everything12:45 Newbury
29 points @ 9/2 (VC bog) Fair Along
24 points @ 6/1 (T) NolandValue Is Everything1:15 Newbury
23 points @ 8/1 (VC) I’msingingtheblues
7 points @ 7/2 (Corals) Tchico PolosValue Is EverythingTotesport Trophy
21 points @ 12/1 (b365) Soldatino23 points @ 8/1 (b365) Salden Licht
Won’t have much time in the morning to get on here so:
My previous saver on Walkon is VOID, so…
9 points @ (best early price in Pricewise box) Walkon
Value Is EverythingWith Noland winning today there was a small 32 point profit.
Will do a proper p/l next week.Now for tomorrow.
3:00 Ascot
60 points @ 7/4 (b365) Riverside Theatre
12 points @ 5/1 (b365) TartakRiverside Theatre produced his best run last time (still improving) despite not jumping like he can. This 2m5f should suit and is consistent. I’ve already backed him for the Ryanair.
Pride Of Dulcote is also improving, but his form is some way below his main rival’s. The Punchestowns form has not worked out at all, and would be a significantly higher price in both this and the Gold Cup were it not be for Tom Segal’s questionable tip for the latter race. Very little experience of fences. Not saying he won’t win, just a very poor price to do so.
Tartak has returned to form, winning the Peterborough and a handicap. It’s difficult to know quite what he has in hand when winning, as he seems to need plenty of "encouragement" to get on top. Bit of a question about whether he’s quite as good right-handed.
Deep Purple may not like any more rain and disappointed behind Tartak.Value Is Everything3:20 Haydock
20 points @ 9/1 (WH) Silver By Nature
19 points @ 7/1 (SJ) Carruthers
7 points @ 13/2 (PP) West End RockerValue Is Everything3:20 Haydock
Agree with Tom Segal here.
Silver By Nature
‘s trainer is now in good form where as when he was last seen it was the opposite. Looked to be travelling quite well for a long way there before finding surprisingly little in the straight (as if not 100%). Goes well under these conditions and won this last year.
Carruthers
has been dropped to a good mark and stamina has looked his forte, now upped in trip. Slower pace will also help his jumping. Hopefully will be able to race prominently.
Saved onWest End Rocker
, improving and again suited by conditions. Convinced he’s better than what he’s shown, idles in the closing stages.
Mobaasher is interesting from his in form yard, easy to see him play a part back over fences. However he’s got a poor recent win to run record. Sometimes does not find much and may be suited by courses with a short run-in (like Wetherby).
Le Beau Bai is a fixture in these events, but does not seem to be running well enough at the moment. Will look for a positive market move.
King Fontaine is improving, but stamina is a major doubt under these conditions upped in trip. Not many horses by Kings Theatre stay extreme distances. Not run for some time.
Twister is in poor form so am against his three. Kim Bailey is also not in the same form as he was.
Nicto De Beauchene won what looked to me a poor race last time.
Looks as if Madison Du Berlais has lost his enthusiasm under any trip. David Pipe says he will be held up today, but I am convinced he’s best from the front. What do I know?
Lucinda Russell’s second string does not look good enough and Sound Accord has a lot on for his first run in ages.Value Is EverythingAnte-post
Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle Cheltenham26 points @ 6/1 (WH, bog) Court In Motion
Running today at Haydock and has form to win quite easily. Even though there are others of potential in the race.
Most of the better rivals in the Cheltenham seem likely to go for the Neptunes. Oscar Well 10/1 with bookies, 20/1 betfair. Bobs Worth 10/1 bookies 27/1 betfair and So Young 12/1 and 43/1.
Those stats make it worth chancing Court In Motion is capable / runs on "better ground".
Just wish I’d taken the price when told about Court In Motion in a stable visit to Emma Lavelle’s in October.
Value Is EverythingResults Up To Date
EDIT: Missed a race.
3:20 Newbury
-36 (18ew) Duc De Regniere 8/1
-18 (9ew) Restless Harry
-54 poin
From what I saw (in the dense fog) Duc was never going after being easy to back. Restless Harry should have been second, gave Lough Derg plenty of rope. The latter two ran well. Big Buck’s not needing to be anywhere near his best to win by 8 lengths.2:25 Sandown
-30 Nadiya De La Vega 5/1
-30 (15ew) Hidden Keel 12/1
-60 points
Very disappointing run from the mare, never going. Hidden Keel went well for a long way, but almost pulled up once his chance had gone. Seemed a lot better than last place suggested. Should not hinder his handicap mark.
Neither bet would have been good enough to beat the first two anyway. Medermit impressing, went clear before idling (or possibly getting to the end of his stamina limitations). The way he travelled and went clear suggests he will be fully effective back at 2 miles. This grade 1 was well up to standard and 10/1 for the Arkle immediately after the race was too good to miss.
Second, Captain Chris finally showed his potential. Jumping a bit better, though not foot perfect, also a bit out to the right. May be best going that way around, which puts me off in whatever Cheltenham race he goes for. The 2 ½ miles seemed to suit too.
Third home Mr Gardener also showed promise, up with the pace, made an error 2 out, but for which would’ve been closer than 7 lengths back.3:35 Sandown
-26 Take The breeze 9/2 (SP 7/2)
-4 Aimigale 9/1
-6 Leading Contender 5/1
-36 points deficit
Take The Breeze travelled well in to the race but found little once in front. Leading Contender was going well when coming down 4 out. Jumping is holding him back. Aimigale pulled up after leading for a long way on reappearance.
Did not look a great race, but it was nice to see the course specialist, teenager Eric’s Charm back in the winners enclosure.4:05 Sandown
-35 Call Me A legend 4/1
-5 Riguez Dancer
-40 points deficit
Both horses ran poorly, too bad to be true. Call Me A Legend had been off last season and hope it is nothing serious. It was another winner for promising claimer David Bass.Days Deficit -136 points
0 points deficit
EDIT: My bet on The Listener, like that of Money Trix has now been refunded as Void. So no bet in this race.Very sad about Money Trix and Glencove Marina. Nice to see The Listener has been retired.
Wasn’t the best of renewals, Kempes showed some improvement and would be the one with some potential. However, isn’t very big horse and can’t quite see him progressing enough to trouble the Brits at Cheltenham.Days points profit / loss 0 points.
12:45 Newbury
-29 Fair Along 9/2
24 @ 6/1 Noland 1st Return 168 points
(53)
115 points profit
Wanted to be against What A friend at odds-on. Hard horse to win with at the best of times, let alone a young jockey riding him for the first time. Needs kidding along, runs in snatches and needs to lead as close to the finish as possible because can idle badly in front.
AP rode the perfect race on Noland, never let Fair Along have his own way, even seemed to go towards his stable companion, intimidating him on the run-in (good jockeyship) and forcing Skelton to switch. Just held on.
Fair Along, well backed, could have done with being left alone in front, made a few minor errors, but was closing again in a close third at the line.1:15 Newbury
-23 I’msingingtheblues 8/1
-7 Tchico Polos 7/2 2nd
-30 points deficit
I will be singing the blues if I ever back Imsingingtheblues again, please shoot me. The way he walked around the paddock with head in the air, I knew my fate before the start. Always in rear.
Tchico Polos was well backed and ran very well. Trouble was so did French Opera, latter coming back to form with a bang after a dismal Sandown effort. Showing improved form, first two coming clear. French Opera looks like going for the Champion Chase, can’t see him troubling the top four in that if they all run to form, but worth having a go.3:50 Newbury
-21 Soldatino 12/1
-23 Salden Licht 8/1
-9 Walkon 11/2
(The other bets on Walkon and Final Approach were both VOID)
-53 points deficit
First four were first four virtually throughout. Drill Sergeant coming out since last week meant no proper front-runner taking part, resulting in an early pace not as fast as usual; although the overall time was reasonable. Soldatino made a few minor errors, but did reasonably well considering his early position. Even so, the County looks his option rather than Champion at Cheltenham. Walkon started a short price for a big handicap, yet never looked happy. Extra week should have helped him recover from Ascot, but that race was strongly run and hard to get over. Stable mate Salden Licht was easy to back (possibly due to being second string), beaten when brought down in the straight after being squeezed for room more than once. Still has potential if none the worse for this.
Pace of the race means form looks suspect, but Recession Proof looks worth his chance in the Supreme Novices. Despite not settling fully early, stayed on well to get the better of Bothy in a tight finish. The second deserves a big win after also chasing home Menorah in the Greatwood Hurdle. Good attitude sure to stand him in good stead, but might go up too much for this. Notus De La Tour was possibly flattered in setting the pace.
This race may not work out as well as it usually does. Soldatino still appeals as the most likely to go on.Days Profit 32 points
3:00 Ascot
60 @ 7/4 Riverside Theatre 1st Return 165 points
-12 Tartak 5/1
(72)
93 points profit
Sad death of Pride Of Dulcote means the form is difficult to quantify. Riverside Theatre quite rightly exceptionally well backed. Jumped slowly at the first before gradually warming to his task. Quickening well in the straight and eased close home. Noticed he was kept a bit wide, may be he travels better with a bit of room. Apparently still not certain to run at Cheltenham, may go straight to Aintree. But the exchange price is no bigger than bookmakers, which suggests (hopefully) will take his chance in the Ryanair. Yet another good ante-post bet?
Second, Gauvain was going equally as well around the home turn. It’s possible he did not quite stay, but seemed to run to form and sometimes finds little anyway.
Not many of the others showed much. Big Fella Thanks moved well for a long way, but not for the first time found little. He’s been placed in the National, but in truth has been well handicapped both times and is yet to run to his best there. I don’t think he truly stays the trip. Unlikely to give Harry Findlay a winning finish to his ownership of horses.3:20 Haydock
20 @ 9/1 Silver By Nature 1st Return 200 points
-19 Carruthers 7/1
-7 West End Rocker 13/2
(46)
154 points profit
Has a round action which suggests a soft surface is key to Silver By Nature’s chance. Although sometimes with these types it is the stamina that is brought out in gluey conditions. 4 ½ miles around Aintree may be enough of a test on goodish ground. should start one of the favourites in the Grand National, well handicapped on this evidence. Jumped well in the main and not put off by having little room at times. Stable were in poor form when he ran previously this season, much better now.
Ballyfitz is now a stayer. It is a pity about his jumping, usually makes plenty of mistakes. Although better in that department this time, I hope he will not take in Aintree this term.
Le Beau Bai loves the mud and ploughed on in relentless fashion to be placed.
Carruthers ran well for a long way, possibly needs to lead these days and quickly beaten once passed in the straight. May be did not stay this extended trip. Could still pick up a nice prize at 3 miles or 3m2f given a firmer surface, when able to dominate.
Only those four finished.
Madison Du Berlais and Mobaasher were their usual reluctant sorts.
King Fontaine was pulled up quickly after a bad mistake and hope he’s ok.
Nicto De Beauchene was shamefully persisted with, obviously out on his feet when refusing at the last. Jockey Glassonbury got a holiday for his antics.
Major Malarkey ran well for a long way, despite not jumping well. Beaten when hampered and brought to a halt two out by his stable companion Jaunty Journey’s fall. May be able to resume winning ways given a break and dropped slightly in grade.
West End Rocker was easy to back and disappointed. Made his move around the final turn but soon beaten and out on his feat before the last. Possibly his win last time took a lot out of him, probably needs a break.Days Profit 247 points
This post profit 89 points
Gingers Jumpers total 638.2 points profit
Value Is EverythingAintree Grand National
18 points @ 16/1 (VC bog) The Midnight Club
15 points @ 20/1 (Corals bog) Silver By NatureValue Is EverythingSilver By Nature
has a round action which suggests a soft surface is key to his chance. Although sometimes with these types it is the stamina that is brought out in gluey conditions. 4 ½ miles around Aintree may be enough of a test on goodish ground. should start one of the favourites in the Grand National, well weighted even before yesterdays performance. Jumped well in the main and not put off by having little room at times. Stable were in poor form when he ran previously this season, much better now. At 20/1 looks worth taking a chance on the ground. I’d be a bit surprised if connections take Silver By Nature out because of the ground. Aintree make sure it is no worse than good these days.
The Midnight Club
is possibly only fairly handicapped on his second in the Thyestes last time. Been placed twice at the festival, close third to Weapons Amnesty in the Spa Hurdle, and same position in the Jewson Handicap last year, staying on over 2m5f. Then not far behind Kempes and China Rock in a grade 1 Novice (those two on good ground). By Flemensfirth, responsible for stayers like Imperial Commander, Time For Rupert, Joe Lively and King Johns Castle. Dam stayed 3 miles from the family of Toby Tobias. So bred to get further than 3 miles and runs that way too. In practically every race he’s run in is staying on strongly at the line. In my opinion he’s been raced over inadequate trips for a great deal of his racing life. But because of that can be expected to improve significantly over further / on his current mark. Of course he might get 3m6f but not 4m4f, but that is a chance worth taking.
Value Is EverythingGinger:
If they hadn’t shown a profit, would you be asking?As Reet does not want me to include my results for January (not on this thread), will not include them. He is right, should not aftertime. But if anyone wants to take those races in to account, they can take -204.88 points off my current totals.
Value Is EverythingRyanair Chase
20 points @ 12/1 (WH) Riverside TheatreWith Punchestowns disappointing in the style of his win today and Henderson reluctant to go for the Ryanair. That surely makes Riverside Theatre more likely to go for the race. Especially if winning in style tomorrow (as I expect). Hopefully connections won’t be tempted to supplement for the Gold Cup. Being not yet a certain starter, I’ve reduced the stake slightly, but I think they’d be mad not to go there.
With the money now coming for Riverside Theatre, suspect an announcement shortly of him being an intended runner in the Ryanair. I make him a true 5/1 shot.
As I reduced my stake in my first bet will go in again.
Extra:
9 points @ 7/1 (boylesports) Riverside TheatreValue Is Everything
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