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2014 Stayers Hurdle
35 points @ 7/1 (PP) Solwhit* (min 6/1)36 points @ 10/1 (B365) More Of That* (min 15/2)
I thought about backing him myself when he was 14/1 but decided there were too many negatives. Obviously, the 10/1 wouldn’t look too bad if both Big Bucks and At Fishers Cross didn’t turn up but even then he would still have his stamina/class to prove. Would JP run two in the race? He did thump Salubrious but that horse almost certainly wants a stiffer test and in an ideal world wouldn’t have made the running. More Of That did throw in more than one sloppy jump as well and those errors might be that much more significant in a better race. I thought Salubrious had a pretty hard race and although upped in trip I would be a little concerned that he can back up so quickly. No doubt all eyes will be on the favourite’s jumping.
Good luck.
2014 Stayers Hurdle
35 points @ 7/1 (PP) Solwhit* (min 6/1)36 points @ 10/1 (B365) More Of That* (min 15/2)
I thought about backing him myself when he was 14/1 but decided there were too many negatives. Obviously, the 10/1 wouldn’t look too bad if both Big Bucks and At Fishers Cross didn’t turn up but even then he would still have his stamina/class to prove. Would JP run two in the race? He did thump Salubrious but that horse almost certainly wants a stiffer test and in an ideal world wouldn’t have made the running. More Of That did throw in more than one sloppy jump as well and those errors might be that much more significant in a better race. I thought Salubrious had a pretty hard race and although upped in trip I would be a little concerned that he can back up so quickly. No doubt all eyes will be on the favourite’s jumping.
Good luck.
More Of That’s jumping isn’t perfect Stilvi, but last time out was the worst he’s jumped. Plenty of time to improve in that department. Had less than half the number (4) of runs over hurdles than his better thought of (but if anything jumps less fluently) owner companion At Fishers Cross. The Rebecca Curtis horse also has to prove himself on a sounder surface. Ground conditions in March (considering likely watering) won’t be that different to what More Of That faced at Cheltenham. Both horses have potential and probably an equal chance of winning, but one is 10/1 the other 6’s.
Of course if Big Buck’s comes back in January in top form 10/1 will not look value. But will he? The odds are even if BB makes Cheltenham, he won’t be as good.
More Of That is unlikely to run in a handicap by Festival time (too good a horse for that) and JP often runs two in the same race when they’re top class. If there was a Ryanair Hurdle there’d be no way I’d be betting! With MTOY and Jezki there’s not much chance of going down in trip. Raes as though will stay 3m. Also, if only one turns up – AFC may prove he needs soft/heavy to produce his best. Jonjo has a great record at the Festival.Agreed, Salubrious 8 day turn around is a worry. I’d be more worried if the Cheltenham run was on soft/heavy (takes longer to recover. Disagree about Salubrious stamina requirements. If anything, I’d be worried won’t stay at tomorrow’s 3m on very soft ground. There’s a possibility he’s a touch flattered by given an easy(ish) lead last time. Hope does the same at Ascot, although I am convinced RDS is at his most willing out front (like last year). Ground will suit AFC much better and (don’t get me wrong) has by far the best chance of winning. I rate the race’s fair prices:
AFC 4/6
RDS 3/1 (just short of)
S 7/1
TFR 33/1
T No priceValue Is Everything3:00 Ascot
39 points @ 13/2 (VC) Storm Survivor* (min 6/1)saver:
13 points @ 11/2 (C) Cedre Bleu (min 11/2)
Another main bet to come in this race.Value Is Everything3:00 Ascot
39 points @ 13/2 (VC) Storm Survivor* (min 6/1)saver:
13 points @ 11/2 (C) Cedre Bleu (min 11/2)
Another main bet to come in this race.Was going to put up Houblon, but not @ 3/1.
Value Is Everything- Total Posts 764
Looking forward to seeing the return of Ptit Zig at Wincanton on Saturday, a horse I’m a big fan of!
Turns out this horse isn’t too shabby!
Looking forward to seeing the return of Ptit Zig at Wincanton on Saturday, a horse I’m a big fan of!
Turns out this horse isn’t too shabby!
Ptit Zig shouldn’t be good enough for the Championship races Ben, but keeps progressing. Do you think he’ll be targeted at Cheltenham in March or Auteuil? Possibly best when the mud is flying.
Value Is EverythingThought it was going to be a TRF-less/racing-less Christmas for a while!
Electric went off 30 minutes in to Christmas Eve and did not come on again until 17:30.Merry Christmas and a happy new year to all TRFers everywhere!
The Ginge
Value Is EverythingTo Win Befair Chase And King George
20 points @ 14/1 (WH) Silviniaco Conti* (min 12/1)10 points @ 40/1 (FD) Cue Card* (min 28/1)
Here’s hoping!
Still think 7/2 Cue Card is a reasonable bet as long as it is not heavy. I might trade out if shortening in to around 5/2. If not, let it roll.Value Is EverythingTo Win Befair Chase And King George
20 points @ 14/1 (WH) Silviniaco Conti* (min 12/1)10 points @ 40/1 (FD) Cue Card* (min 28/1)
Here’s hoping!
Still think 7/2 Cue Card is a reasonable bet as long as it is not heavy. I might trade out if shortening in to around 5/2. If not, let it roll."Heavy in places" now!
Value Is Everything- Total Posts 764
Ginge a quick heads up (will get back to you about ptit zig later)
I live really close to Kempton and though we had a lot of rain for 3-4 days from Sunday to Tuesday it never rained that heavily and we didn’t get any rain yesturday and there was only a light bit of rain last night (but not for very long). Looking into the sky now it doesn’t look like it’ll rain again until at least tonight (though that’s no guarantee). I can’t see the ground getting any worse than how it is now and personally I’d still say it’s soft all over unless the drainage work at Kempton is terrible (I have no idea how good the drainage system there is).
Think Heavy in places is an overstatement.
Thanks for the update Ben.
Hopefully won’t be too bad then.
May have a late saver.
On this race to savour.Value Is Everything- Total Posts 764
Haha love it, should be a cracker!
2:00 Kempton
27 points each way @ 4/1 (B365) Green Flag* (min 4/1)Value Is Everything- Total Posts 764
So close Ginge!
With regards to Ptit Zig, I’ll be honest I have absolutely no idea where he’ll be sent, Nichols clearly thinks a lot of the horse and I have a sneaky feeling he’s keeping this one to himself slightly (and not shouting about him in interviews). If I had to hazard a guess I’d imagine he’d be sent for a big field handicap at Cheltenham though should he have a big weight you could definitely see him sending him to France in an easier race with big prize money!
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