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3:15 Cheltenham
49 points @ 7/2 (VC) Southfield Theatre* (min 100/30)Saver:
13 points @ 6/1 (B365) Thomas Crapper (min 11/2)Probably two more bets to come in this race, one main one saver.
Suspect Arbruzzi will be Pricewise but won’t have much time in the "morning" so:
16 points @ 13/1 (betfair) Arbruzzi* (min 11/1)(£82 available)
saver:
9 points @ 8.8/1 (betfair) Angles Hill (min 8/1)(£45 available)Value Is EverythingOnly my third Cricket bet ever.
Won’t count it for this thread, but I’ve taken 12/1 (Skybet) for the Ashes Series to be DRAWN.I have a feeling your fourth bet will be a long time coming! They badly need to get runs on the board but at present the batsmen don’t appear to have the mindset/courage to occupy the crease for long enough periods. It was horrible watching the biff-bang-wallop approach to surrendering the last Test.
Good luck with the horses. I have gone with Return Spring and Garde La Victoire but I am a little concerned about how much rain Cheltenham might get.
Ouch, two places there Stilvi!
Agree, mindset/courage has been a big part of it. But 12/1 = 7.7% and all that.
Do think difference between the two sides has been exacerbated by Australia winning the toss in first two tests. Trouble is they won the toss again! Off to a bad start before a ball was bowled! After the first session the wicket usually gets easier for a while before getting worse and worse, looks like that’s the way it is going to be. Still, the price is no worse now than I took then. Couple of quick wickets and who knows.
Draw wouldn’t be the worst result for this test either. (Ginge crosses his fingers, and everything else).Value Is Everything2:10 Cheltenham
24 points @ 20/1 (L) Aimigale* (min 14/1)
40 points @ 6/1 (SJ) Prince Of Pirates* (min 11/2)
8 points @ 17/2 (VC) Duke Of Lucca (min 8/1)Looked into betting on both Amigale and Duke of Lucca.
However, I am put off Duke of Lucca because he doesnt seem to find a a whole heap under pressure and based on his performance against the likes of opening batsman, he should have already managed to win in his recent races. I like Aimigale at her best but not sure what any rain would do to her chances.
I tend not to bet on horses closer to the top of these handicaps but I think Theatre guide might be well able to handle most of these and (aimigale aside) isnt conceding that much weight to his opponents.
Sorry SHL, didn’t see your post until after the race. Agreed with your assesment of Duke Of Lucca, his strike rate made him a poor main bet, which was why I made him just a saver. Personally, think Theatre Guide’s temperament isn’t the best either. Travels well, finds little.
Aimigale was well backed 20/1 in to 8/1. Didn’t give herself chance to show what she could do, making too many mistakes.
Value Is EverythingOuch, two places there Stilvi!
Unfortunately, I also added Desoto County and got the hat trick up! Maybe it’s punishment for praising Johnson and criticising AP? I thought Return Spring was a shade unlucky in challenging out wide but then in the last Johnson couldn’t take advantage of the slightly better track position. Been a very frustrating month or so and any hope of finding a bit of respite in my ante-post bets went west with Diamond King’s mediocre performance albeit at a track that didn’t suit. After that effort he has a mountain to climb to even line up at the Festival.
Tomorrow I am siding with AP and Milan Bound. The horse runs in snatches but if he can remain in touch hopefully his stamina will prove to be the trump card.
2:25 Cheltenham
40 points @ 11/2 (888) Colour Squadron* (min 5/1)Value Is Everything2:25 Cheltenham
40 points @ 11/2 (888) Colour Squadron* (min 5/1)30 points @ 1.52/1 (betfair) Colour Squadron PLACE* (min 5/4)(£48 available @ 1.52/1)
Value Is EverythingOuch, two places there Stilvi!
Unfortunately, I also added Desoto County and got the hat trick up! Maybe it’s punishment for praising Johnson and criticising AP? I thought Return Spring was a shade unlucky in challenging out wide but then in the last Johnson couldn’t take advantage of the slightly better track position. Been a very frustrating month or so and any hope of finding a bit of respite in my ante-post bets went west with Diamond King’s mediocre performance albeit at a track that didn’t suit. After that effort he has a mountain to climb to even line up at the Festival.
Tomorrow I am siding with AP and Milan Bound. The horse runs in snatches but if he can remain in touch hopefully his stamina will prove to be the trump card.
Was a strange day today Stilvi, with goodish ground and two slowly run affairs – yet two real stayers in
Monbeg Dude
and
Sunnyhillboy
won the races!
I’ve had a look at the novice race. Tricky. Short priced favourite
Kings Palace
has the form to win and acts on the (presumed) ground, but stable seemingly not going that well. As far as I can see just 2 wins in last 48 runners and those @ 6/4 and 8/13. Possibly worth opposing.
But despite Sunnyhillboy winning, Jonjo is hardly any better and certainly not in the same sort of form as whenMilan Bound
was last seen. Improving but still needs to improve quite a bit and not sure to be suited by the ground if there’s little/no rain. Wish you luck with him.
If it doesn’t rain too much overnight I might chanceSaint Roque
. Would’ve liked 8 runners for eah way purposes. Taking a bit of a chance with the quick turn around, but has some good form on the probable surface.
Value Is EverythingOuch, two places there Stilvi!
Unfortunately, I also added Desoto County and got the hat trick up! Maybe it’s punishment for praising Johnson and criticising AP? I thought Return Spring was a shade unlucky in challenging out wide but then in the last Johnson couldn’t take advantage of the slightly better track position. Been a very frustrating month or so and any hope of finding a bit of respite in my ante-post bets went west with Diamond King’s mediocre performance albeit at a track that didn’t suit. After that effort he has a mountain to climb to even line up at the Festival.
Tomorrow I am siding with AP and Milan Bound. The horse runs in snatches but if he can remain in touch hopefully his stamina will prove to be the trump card.
Was a strange day today Stilvi, with goodish ground and two slowly run affairs – yet two real stayers in
Monbeg Dude
and
Sunnyhillboy
won the races!
I’ve had a look at the novice race. Tricky. Short priced favourite
Kings Palace
has the form to win and acts on the (presumed) ground, but stable seemingly not going that well. As far as I can see just 2 wins in last 48 runners and those @ 6/4 and 8/13. Possibly worth opposing.
But despite Sunnyhillboy winning, Jonjo is hardly any better and certainly not in the same sort of form as whenMilan Bound
was last seen. Improving but still needs to improve quite a bit and not sure to be suited by the ground if there’s little/no rain. Wish you luck with him.
If it doesn’t rain too much overnight I might chanceSaint Roque
. Would’ve liked 8 runners for eah way purposes. Taking a bit of a chance with the quick turn around, but has some good form on the probable surface.
You might well be correct about the ground for Milan Bound. Generally, Milan’s prefer better ground but he might be an exception. I am obviously hoping that the distance is a more important factor than the ground. He is a full brother to the talented, but ill-fated Acey, who we didn’t see enough of to confirm his preferred going.
The favourite was sold off the Pipe website so he has probably outperformed expectation otherwise I guess we would have seen him in the Brookhouse colours. He might continue to do so but on a quicker surface I think he might struggle to dominate this field. Good ground should be ideal for Saint Roque but I am not so sure he is going to find any improvement for the step up in trip. It is often difficult to equate handicap form with novice form and quite often it is underestimated. Given that he will have no problems with ground or distance (and might still be progressive) Flicka Williams could well be overpriced at 20/1.
With all the rain expected at Newbury, instead of going racing may well stay at home with the form book and bet late (if at all) on the rest of the card.
Value Is Everything- Total Posts 764
Thinking Tiqris is a great value bet in the 1.10 Newbury at around 5/2
2014 Stayers Hurdle
35 points @ 7/1 (PP) Solwhit* (min 6/1)36 points @ 10/1 (B365) More Of That* (min 15/2)
Value Is Everything2:25 Ascot
28 points @ 9/1 (FD) Salubrious* (min 8/1)8 points @ 7/2 (L) Reve De Sivola (min 7/2)
Value Is Everything
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