- This topic has 2,423 replies, 56 voices, and was last updated 9 years, 5 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
Valdez’s main danger fell yesterday, but he was massively impressive at Newbury, winning easily by 24 lengths in a fast time. Seems equally effective on good ground as he is on soft. Fact he jumped right handed two out is a slight worry, but is 25/1. Next race could be the Wayward Lad at Kempton over Christmas. I’d be suprised if his price does not shorten significantly over the next couple of months and should be able to lay it back at some point. Unlike many in the Arkle market, from what the trainer says Valdez is likely to be kept at 2 miles. 25/1 available @ Paddy Power or Stan James.
I have had this one myself. I wouldn’t be that concerned about two out. For some reason horses seem to jump right on occasion at Newbury but don’t do it at other tracks. Importantly, he has some course form over hurdles (longer trip) not jumping right. There are many very cautious ante-post prices but this looks on the generous side.
As for Champagne Fever I am still fuming about last year but if you took it in isolation his chase debut wasn’t better than Valdez’s two wins. I still remain to be totally convinced by that head carriage and I wonder how much the key to his Supreme victory was not being taken on for the lead. If I was a big owner with a leading fancy for the Arkle I would think seriously about having a second runner just to test that theory out.
Valdez did jump right at times earlier in the race including at cross fence, though nowhere near so pronounced as three out (fact it was a ditch might not be a coincidence). Occasionally went that way at Exeter too. Had not noticed it over hurdles and may be something he gets out of with experience. There’s always a possibilty it will resurface when under pressure. However, as you say Stilvi, form at Cheltenham is encouraging on that front. Would not need to improve greatly on left-handed Newbury form anyway to have a reasonable chance. 25/1 enormous, bookmakers/punters often under-estimate handicap form when it comes to Grade 1 novives.
I have had another look back at those two chases. By my reckoning he has jumped 25 fences and made only one minor mistake. As far as I could see he has jumped right on 4 occasions, by far the most pronounced being the third last at Newbury. He followed that by jumping the last two fences really well. He has an identical 3-6 at left-handed and right-handed tracks. At this stage I think his jumping is more of an asset than something to be worried about and I note that 25/1 has now disappeared.
2:20 Sandown
85 points @ 11/10 (B365) Rolling Aces* (min Evens)Value Is Everything2:20 Sandown
85 points @ 11/10 (B365) Rolling Aces* (min Evens)Interested as to why you have gone with Rolling Aces? To me it looks pretty much a flip of a coin job. I think Harry Topper is the more talented but a tactical race might not suit. Might be pure coincidence but the one time Jacob has ridden Rolling Aces corresponded to much the worse run of his career. Don’t say this too often but I would have preferred to see Scholfield on board.
2:20 Sandown
85 points @ 11/10 (B365) Rolling Aces* (min Evens)Interested as to why you have gone with Rolling Aces? To me it looks pretty much a flip of a coin job. I think Harry Topper is the more talented but a tactical race might not suit. Might be pure coincidence but the one time Jacob has ridden Rolling Aces corresponded to much the worse run of his career. Don’t say this too often but I would have preferred to see Scholfield on board.
Think you’ve summed it up quite well Stilvi, all depends how much you believe those factors you name will effect the rusult.
Process of elimination.
Vino Griego
has always been inconsistent due to temperament. Now his jumping looks to have gone to pot too. Probably not good enough anyway. Not sure to be as effective at tomorrows trip unless they go very slow.
It’s difficult to know just what
Harry Topper
achieved in the Charlie Hall. Recieved 4 lbs yet only beat the inconsistent Wayward Prince a neck; with every other horse running below form. Backed Harry Topper that day and felt very lucky. You’re right Stilvi, he is the most talented runner – if ever getting his jumping together will improve, but more often than not jumping lets him down. Also needs a thorough test of stamina and they set the Wetherby race up for him. As you suggest, pace will be key. Usually a hold up horse, given a similar ride tomorrow I believe unlikely to have anywhere near as much speed as his main rival, particularly on the ground. Connections should try a change of tactics, but horses often do not show their best with a change. So either way is marked down.
Both
Rolling Aces
rivals are normally hold up horses and he may well get an easy lead. Able to set a pace to suit himself and not Harry Topper. Hope he won’t go too slow, as a sprint will benifit the outsider. Sandown is a course where jumping and in particular fast, accurate jumping pays dividends and not only are his rivals lacking in that department – but Rolling Aces himself also usually jumps very well as did in the Racing Post chase and Wincanton (both right-handed like Sandown). In most ways jockeys in my experience seldom make much difference with a horse like Rolling Aces, though judgement of pace will be crucial. Should step up on Downpatrick reappearance. May not quite have the scope for improvement of Harry Topper Stilvi, but (imo) by far the most likely to show his form.
My estimation of the race is:
Rolling Aces 52% 10/11
Harry Topper 40% 6/4
Vino Greigo 8% 12/1Value Is Everything2:40 Aintree
saver first:
15 points @ 7/2 (FD) The Giant Bolster (min 7/2)Value Is Everything2:40 Aintree
saver first:
15 points @ 7/2 (FD) The Giant Bolster (min 7/2)half bet:
50 points @ 11/4 (B365) Katenko* (min 11/4)Value Is Everything1:50 Sandown
27 points @ 12/1 (L) Claret Cloak* (min 10/1)39 points @ 7/2 (FD) Balder Success* (min 100/30)
saver:
19 points @ 7/2 (FD) Grandouet (min 7/2)Value Is Everything2:05 Aintree
20 points @ 14/1 (VC) Wyck Hill* (min 12/1)
25 points @ 14/1 (888) Vesper Bell* (min 10/1)Another three to come in this race.
Value Is Everything2:05 Aintree
20 points @ 14/1 (VC) Wyck Hill* (min 12/1)
25 points @ 14/1 (888) Vesper Bell* (min 10/1)16 points @ 22/1 (betfair) Bennys Mist* (min 18/1)(£16 points available)
Another two to come.
Value Is Everything2:05 Aintree
20 points @ 14/1 (VC) Wyck Hill* (min 12/1)
25 points @ 14/1 (888) Vesper Bell* (min 10/1)16 points @ 22/1 (betfair) Bennys Mist* (min 18/1)(£16 points available)
Savers:
8 points @ 10/1 (VC) On His Own (min 10/1)
3 points @ 25/1 (Coral) Storm Survivor (min 16/1)Last named will be available tomorrow morning (Pricewise). If you can get enough money on you might like to make it an 18 points win @ 25/1 instead of "3".
Value Is Everything3:35 Sandown
31 points @ 8/1 (WH) Bradley* (min 7/1)
30 points @ 7/1 (FD) Court By Suprise* (min 13/2)Value Is Everything3:35 Sandown
31 points @ 8/1 (WH) Bradley* (min 7/1)
30 points @ 7/1 (FD) Court By Suprise* (min 13/2)13 points @ 26/1 (betfair) Well Refreshed* (min 22/1)(£4 available @ 27/1, £9 @ 26/1)
Value Is Everything3:35 Sandown
31 points @ 8/1 (WH) Bradley* (min 7/1)
30 points @ 7/1 (FD) Court By Suprise* (min 13/2)13 points @ 26/1 (betfair) Well Refreshed* (min 22/1)(£4 available @ 27/1, £9 @ 26/1)
Half Savers:
8 points @ 11/2 (SJ) Buddy Bolero (min 11/2)
6 points @ 7/1 (PP) Godsmejudge (min 7/1)Value Is EverythingJust wanted to record my appreciation of your toiling through the night so the rest of us can make a bit of money on Saturdays.
Incidentally, speaking of value, what do you make of the fact that Man U are twice the odds of Liverpool for winning the premiership on Betfair but Liverpool are expected to get fewer points (on Sporting Index)?
Just wanted to record my appreciation of your toiling through the night so the rest of us can make a bit of money on Saturdays.
Incidentally, speaking of value, what do you make of the fact that Man U are twice the odds of Liverpool for winning the premiership on Betfair but Liverpool are expected to get fewer points (on Sporting Index)?
Thanks Kasparov, I’ve been listening to some of the Ashes, so been up quite late lately. What a shambles!
Not suprised at the apparent different odds with Man U and Liverpool. I’ve backed Liverpool for the Premiership.
Moyes has 4 wins and goal difference to make up on leaders Arsenal, needs to win 3 more than Chelsea and (considering goal difference) 2 wins more than City. Probably capable of beating one, as odds are one of three may fall away. Possibly even two, but highly unlikely all three will self destruct.
Liverpool on the other hand, are currently only 1 point (+ goal difference (GD)) behind City, and 1 win from Chelsea (with similar GD). Admittedly more than 2 wins behind Arsenal (+ GD), but only one club will need to have a poor run-in for Liverpool to win the Premiership if (big if) the Merseysiders don’t themselves roll over.
The two markets are totally different. Instead of 8 clubs currenly ahead of United in the title race, in any straight fight there is obviously only one to beat. And with only two wins between Liverpool and Man U – looking at previous seasons latter do have a better end game record than former. So perentage-wise the Champions will probably win two more games than the Scousers between now and the rest of the season…
So I’d agree Kasparov, given current positions and goal difference Man U will probably finish in front of Liverpool, but Liverpool have a better chance of winning the title.
It’s akin to racing. Progressive sort with something to find on the favourites – has a better chance of wining than a thoroughly exposed animal with form just behind the favourites. On the other hand – in a match bet the exposed sort (because it has form so far clear of the improver) will probably finish in front of the progressive animal. One reason why each way betting can be different to win only.
Value Is Everything
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.