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Helicopter is the way to go Ginge. Save a lot of hassle.
With reference to earlier post, after today i`m down to a couple of nights in a dodgy B & B in Southsea. Got any washing up i can do?
Arkle Trophy
47 points @ 5/1 (PP) Champagne Fever* (min 9/2)19 points @ 25/1 (PP) Valdez* (min 20/1)
Value Is EverythingHelicopter is the way to go Ginge. Save a lot of hassle.
With reference to earlier post, after today i`m down to a couple of nights in a dodgy B & B in Southsea. Got any washing up i can do?
You should’ve got in touch sooner Softie, did this weekend’s washing up this morning. Now got to get the rest of the housework done!
Value Is EverythingArkle Trophy
47 points @ 5/1 (PP) Champagne Fever* (min 9/2)19 points @ 25/1 (PP) Valdez* (min 20/1)
Valdez’s main danger fell yesterday, but he was massively impressive at Newbury, winning easily by 24 lengths in a fast time. Seems equally effective on good ground as he is on soft. Fact he jumped right handed two out is a slight worry, but is 25/1. Next race could be the Wayward Lad at Kempton over Christmas. I’d be suprised if his price does not shorten significantly over the next couple of months and should be able to lay it back at some point. Unlike many in the Arkle market, from what the trainer says Valdez is likely to be kept at 2 miles. 25/1 available @ Paddy Power or Stan James.
Value Is EverythingArkle Trophy
47 points @ 5/1 (PP) Champagne Fever* (min 9/2)19 points @ 25/1 (PP) Valdez* (min 20/1)
Valdez’s main danger fell yesterday, but he was massively impressive at Newbury, winning easily by 24 lengths in a fast time. Seems equally effective on good ground as he is on soft. Fact he jumped right handed two out is a slight worry, but is 25/1. Next race could be the Wayward Lad at Kempton over Christmas. I’d be suprised if his price does not shorten significantly over the next couple of months and should be able to lay it back at some point. Unlike many in the Arkle market, from what the trainer says Valdez is likely to be kept at 2 miles. 25/1 available @ Paddy Power or Stan James.
I have had this one myself. I wouldn’t be that concerned about two out. For some reason horses seem to jump right on occasion at Newbury but don’t do it at other tracks. Importantly, he has some course form over hurdles (longer trip) not jumping right. There are many very cautious ante-post prices but this looks on the generous side.
As for Champagne Fever I am still fuming about last year but if you took it in isolation his chase debut wasn’t better than Valdez’s two wins. I still remain to be totally convinced by that head carriage and I wonder how much the key to his Supreme victory was not being taken on for the lead. If I was a big owner with a leading fancy for the Arkle I would think seriously about having a second runner just to test that theory out.
Ginger one: I have no problem with you ‘claiming’ to back between 5-8 horses per race, I do not however believe you have the finances to back these claims up!!
IF you do actually back them to 50pence per point (which I very much doubt) then I hope you take a break soon as I think you need to!!
As for your ‘bum boy’ – do yourself a favour and keep out!!
Ginger one: I have no problem with you ‘claiming’ to back between 5-8 horses per race, I do not however believe you have the finances to back these claims up!!
IF you do actually back them to 50pence per point (which I very much doubt) then I hope you take a break soon as I think you need to!!
As for your ‘bum boy’ – do yourself a favour and keep out!!
You’d know more about being a
"bum boy"
than anyone else on the forum Gdc.
Listen, seem to hear your master calling. Garry Glitter loves Gordon.Some punters bet in every single race, at every single meeting. Having far more selections than I do. It is highly unusual for me to bet in more than four races in one day.
Why wouldn’t I
"have the finances"
? It’s not as if I make a loss! May be one day you’ll find out for yourself what it’s like to make a good overall consistent profit. The more a successful punter puts on – the more he/she can afford to put on.
Of course you might
"claim"
to make a "good overall consistent profit Gdc – which might just about be possible – but forums are full of fantasy. Unlike you Gdc – I’ve got something to back such a claim up. Your aspersions are nothing but the green eyed monster
making no sense at all.Why should I
"take a break"
from making money?
Value Is EverythingGinger one: I have no problem with you ‘claiming’ to back between 5-8 horses per race
Backing between 5 and 8 horses is
unusual
Gdc.
I don’t have information for this thread (will be very similar) count it up yourself if needed – but for your information – I’ve got a record of
all
my jumps betting this season. 110 horses backed in 37 races. So you may be suprised to know the average number of selections per race is
UNDER 3
.
But don’t let facts get in the way of your silly campaign Gdc.
Value Is EverythingI have no campaign, I am however a realist, you carry on convincing yourself that by backing numerous horses in races makes you a profit and I will continue disbelieving that you back them! The turnover unless you back in pence would not be available to you.
No malice whatsoever and good luck with your numerous selections and I hope the points improve for you
I have no campaign, I am however a realist, you carry on convincing yourself that by backing numerous horses in races makes you a profit and I will continue disbelieving that you back them!
The turnover unless you back in pence would not be available to you.
No malice whatsoever and good luck with your numerous selections and I hope the points improve for you
OMG, you just don’t understand how I bet Gdc.
My staking plan is directly related to chance of winning (and how much value) therefore bigger prices tend to have smaller stakes.If there are other value bets in the race most horses at 6/4 and shorter that I rate as "value" I normally bet as "savers". However, it is possible for a horse I believe to be a
So the 50% chance available @ 6/4 gets (if a main bet)110
points staked @ 6/4.
A horse I believe has a
So Caroles Spirit in the 3:15 Newbury on Friday – the 40% chance available @ 2/1 gets (if a main bet)80
points staked @ 2/1.
Where as something I believe is a
So the 14% chance available @ 15/2 gets (if a main bet)28
points staked @ 15/2.
Where as something I believe is a
So the 6% chance available @ 25/1 gets (if a main bet)19
points @ 25/1.
Any saver bet usually gets enough staked to get back the amount staked on the others.
With bigger prices having less money staked on them it allows for (if I consider them "value")
more
selections in open races (usually handicaps) without much difference in
overall
race stake. ie
"Turnover"
is little or no different whether I have 1, 2, 3 or even 6 selections.
eg. In the Hennessy I had
6
selections adding up to a total stake of
87 points
. 3 main bets and 3 (more or less) savers… Yet in the 3:15 on Friday I had just
1
selection with
80 points
staked @ 2/1. Had I also thought a 10/1 horse was "value" in that 3:15, I could have placed an 8 point saver @ 10/1 making total stake of
88
. So a race with
2 selections
could have had
more
money staked than a race with
6 selections
.
If you now realise betting 6 selections makes little or no difference to "turnover" Gdc, hopefully you now believe I
do
back all horses on my thread?
Value Is EverythingValdez’s main danger fell yesterday, but he was massively impressive at Newbury, winning easily by 24 lengths in a fast time. Seems equally effective on good ground as he is on soft. Fact he jumped right handed two out is a slight worry, but is 25/1. Next race could be the Wayward Lad at Kempton over Christmas. I’d be suprised if his price does not shorten significantly over the next couple of months and should be able to lay it back at some point. Unlike many in the Arkle market, from what the trainer says Valdez is likely to be kept at 2 miles. 25/1 available @ Paddy Power or Stan James.
I have had this one myself. I wouldn’t be that concerned about two out. For some reason horses seem to jump right on occasion at Newbury but don’t do it at other tracks. Importantly, he has some course form over hurdles (longer trip) not jumping right. There are many very cautious ante-post prices but this looks on the generous side.
As for Champagne Fever I am still fuming about last year but if you took it in isolation his chase debut wasn’t better than Valdez’s two wins. I still remain to be totally convinced by that head carriage and I wonder how much the key to his Supreme victory was not being taken on for the lead. If I was a big owner with a leading fancy for the Arkle I would think seriously about having a second runner just to test that theory out.
Valdez did jump right at times earlier in the race including at cross fence, though nowhere near so pronounced as three out (fact it was a ditch might not be a coincidence). Occasionally went that way at Exeter too. Had not noticed it over hurdles and may be something he gets out of with experience. There’s always a possibilty it will resurface when under pressure. However, as you say Stilvi, form at Cheltenham is encouraging on that front. Would not need to improve greatly on left-handed Newbury form anyway to have a reasonable chance. 25/1 enormous, bookmakers/punters often under-estimate handicap form when it comes to Grade 1 novives.
Champagne Fever is a big sort, type who usually makes a better chaser than hurdler. And we know he was an above average Supreme winner who goes particularly well at Cheltenham. Totally agree, chase debut "form" not of the quality Valdez put up. It will indeed be interesting to see whether jumping and enthusiasm are maintained if taken on for the lead. If it continues then it’s hard to envisage him not making up in to an equally good novice chaser as hurdler. Suppose there is also a chance he will need more than 2 miles come Cheltenham in March; but at the moment his best has been at the minimum trip. With Champagne Fever it is massive potential rather than "chase form" that (imo) makes him a value bet Stilvi. Even at the now 9/2 I believe he has a much better than 18% chance. I wouldn’t like to offer 3/1.
Value Is EverythingWelsh National
23 points @ 14/1 (L) Highland Lodge* (min 12/1)Value Is EverythingOh Ginge, could he mean me, i do hope so as no one has said anything that nice about me in ages – mind you i don`t get out much these days i have to admit.
But then perhaps he doesn`t mean me at all and my hopes and dreams will be shattered!! Still, mustn`t think like that, be positive and have good thoughts for the rest of the day at least.
Be still my beating heart.
PS Thought it was very noble of you not to bring up The Grand National.
No need to go back to the Aintree National Softie. May be Gdc1 should just look at what is happening to those I’ve mentioned on
this
page? Champagne Fever and Valdez’s prices in the Arkle and Highland Lodge Welsh National.
Ginge can identify value no matter where it is, no matter how many value horses are in a race.
Value Is EverythingTingle Creek
60 points @ 9/4 (L) Sire De Grugy* (min 85/40)saver:
22 points @ 11/4 (WH) Captain Conan (min 11/4)Value Is EverythingTingle Creek
60 points @ 9/4 (L) Sire De Grugy* (min 85/40)saver:
22 points @ 11/4 (WH) Captain Conan (min 11/4)Famous last words, but this has the look of a three horse race,
Sire De Grugy, Captain Conan and Somersby.Kauto Stone
did not look in love with the game on reappearance in Ireland (race he’s won in the past). Normally you’d think might come on for the run, but has produced his best runs fresh. Arguably needs further than 2m to produce best. Blinkers need to work their magic.
Viva Colonia
is hopelessly outclassed, though can travel well before finding very little. Just possible more ability than shows.
His Excellency
only gets involved if pace is overly strong, usually drops himself out.
The Mad Moose
won’t start.
Tataniano
has had problems, changed stables since his glory days and showed little last time.
Oisuaux Du Nuit
is an admirable sort who should be suited by the ground, but not at best this term and now 11 years old may be on the downgrade.
Last four mentioned have some distance to make up onSire De Grugy
from Cheltenham last month. Moore’s horse a beaten odds-on favourite. However, form is pretty good. Jockey appeared to go for home too soon and overhauled by Kid cassidy on run in; trying to give the AP ridden runner 10 lbs. Has form on both soft and good ground. Won Celebration Chase at Sandown as a novice last April. Main bet.
Captain Conan
is an unknown. Takes over from Sprinter Sacre as the Henderson rep. Bit concerned 2 miles on goodish ground could be a little sharp for him, which is why he’s the saver not main. However, a good looking animal with scope to improve this season. Unbeaten in 3 runs at Sandown.
I backedSomersby
at Exeter last time because of a reasonable record fresh, is otherwise inconsistent. Trainer believes he’s now found the answer, but Channon is always an optimist. Somersby has not won the number of races ability usually merits. Idled in front and better than head verdict over Module indicates, giving that rival just 3 lbs. On the other hand, flattered by having a below form Cue Card in third (reappearance). Chance today depends on what’s going on up top and wonder whether he’ll be outbattled against two with similar ability.
Value Is Everything
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