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November 29, 2013 at 22:19 #460218
6 points @ 12/1 (C) Highland Knight (min 12/1)
6 points @ 12/1 (B365) Merry King (min 12/1)
3 points @ 33/1 (Betfair) Houblon Des Obeaux (min 28/1)You’d probably get a bit better prices with some of these above if waiting for tomorrow’s Early Prices. I won’t have much time Saturday.
I have a feeling that Highland Knight might struggle with the trip particularly if taken on for the lead!
November 29, 2013 at 22:20 #460219Do i take it you`re appearing live at Newbury tomorrow Ginge?
Expected to see you there today if only to give my ears some relief from Keith`s verbal onslaught
November 29, 2013 at 22:52 #46022912:50 Newbury
62 points @ 5/2 (WH) Veldez* (min 9/4)
10 points @ 13/2 (B365) Un Bon P’Tit Gars (min 13/2)Value Is EverythingNovember 29, 2013 at 22:55 #460231Do i take it you`re appearing live at Newbury tomorrow Ginge?
Expected to see you there today if only to give my ears some relief from Keith`s verbal onslaught
Hi Softie,
Didn’t feel too good Thursday and although fine today thought I’d give it a miss just in case. I’ll definitely be there tomorrow.
Hopefully your ears will have recovered by then.Value Is EverythingNovember 29, 2013 at 23:00 #4602336 points @ 12/1 (C) Highland Knight (min 12/1)
6 points @ 12/1 (B365) Merry King (min 12/1)
3 points @ 33/1 (Betfair) Houblon Des Obeaux (min 28/1)You’d probably get a bit better prices with some of these above if waiting for tomorrow’s Early Prices. I won’t have much time Saturday.
I have a feeling that Highland Knight might struggle with the trip particularly if taken on for the lead!
You’re right Stilvi, Highland Knight is a front runner, but a miler trained by Andrew Balding. Highly unlikely to get 3m2f.Value Is EverythingNovember 29, 2013 at 23:35 #4602463:35 Newbury
54 points @ 5/1 (C) Next Sensation* (min 4/1)Saver:
8 points @ 15/2 (VC) Filbert (min 15/2)Value Is EverythingNovember 30, 2013 at 09:49 #460308Hennessey Gold Cup
Already Backed:
31 points @ 12/1 (Sky) Rocky Creek* (min 9/1)
19 points @ 25/1 (L) Loch Ba* (min 22/1)
10 points @ 14/1 (C) Hadrians Approach (min 12/1)
6 points @ 12/1 (C) Highland Lodge (min 12/1)
6 points @ 12/1 (B365) Merry King (min 12/1)
3 points @ 33/1 (Betfair) Houblon Des Obeaux (min 28/1)
Now:
Another:
12 points @ 11/1 (PP) Highland Lodge* (min 10/1)Value Is EverythingNovember 30, 2013 at 22:56 #460451GDC wrote this in "Different Approach". Suspect TAPK would not appreciate percentage talk in his thread so will reply here.
On a slightly ‘tongue in cheek’ manner, I bet the Ginger ones bookie has booked another nice holiday, 5 and 6 selections in races but still not able to find the winner
IF he actually backs them (which due to the number, I very much doubt) he has a problem and needs to get help!
I know it’s "slightly tongue in cheek" GDC, but why do you expect me to win every 7/4 shot I back?
The six horses I backed in the Hennessy were:
12/1 Rocky Creek
25/1 Loch Ba
14/1 Hadrians Approach
12/1 Highland Lodge
12/1 Merry King
33/1 Houblon Des ObeauxIf I had backed all horses to return the same amount with:
7.66 points @ 12/1 Rocky Creek returns 99.58
3.83 points @ 25/1 Loch Ba returns 99.58
6.64 points @ 14/1 Hadrians Approach 99.6
7.66 points @ 12/1 Highland Lodge 99.58
7.66 points @ 12/1 Merry King 99.58
2.93 points @ 33/1 Houblon Des Obeaux returns 99.62
Total 36.38 points invested.Backing 6 horses at those prices is almost exactly the same as backing just one horse in a race @ 7/4.
36.38 points on one horse returns 100.04If I think six horses are "value" I will back six horses, if I think one horse is "value" I will back one horse. May not be what most punters do/want to do, but it works for me.
Sometimes I need to back them on Betfair instead because I can’t "get on". But yes GDC, I do
"actually back them" all
myself. Every single one. Dare say this won’t be the last time you cast aspersions.
Backing one 7/4 loser doesn’t mean much when it was the only one of four races I did not get the winner today. Two main bet victories and a saver.
Value Is EverythingDecember 1, 2013 at 00:08 #4604632:15 Fairyhouse
27 points @ 11/1 Dedigout* (min 9/1)
23 points @ 11/1 Diakali* (min 10/1)Value Is EverythingDecember 1, 2013 at 02:21 #4604671:10 Fairyhouse
52 points @ 5/2 (B365) Sizing Rio* (min 5/2)Value Is EverythingDecember 1, 2013 at 02:26 #4604681:10 Fairyhouse
52 points @ 5/2 (B365) Sizing Rio* (min 5/2)32 points @ 6/1 ((FD) Art Of Logistics* (min 6/1)
Value Is EverythingDecember 1, 2013 at 09:12 #460473GDC1 WROTE:
On a slightly ‘tongue in cheek’ manner, I bet the Ginger ones bookie has booked another nice holiday, 5 and 6 selections in races but still not able to find the winnerIF he actually backs them (which due to the number, I very much doubt) he has a problem and needs to get help!
Ginger why do you feel it necessary to justify your betting decisions to these doubters? You have a system for identifying value in horse races and in practice it works; as given by your P&L record. The incessant jibes from these clowns as to whether you back them and the critiques made regarding the number of selections should only serve to highlight their basic lack of understanding rather than to act as a trigger for you to pen an explanatory post. Keep up the good work.
December 1, 2013 at 12:12 #460488Exactly, the reason why I "justify" myself is to…
highlight their basic lack of understanding
But you are right, don’t react as often as I once did. Need for any justification is getting less and less, possibly non existent.
Thanks for your kind words Pantherirons.
Value Is EverythingDecember 1, 2013 at 13:02 #460497Good to see you managed to get out of the Newbury car park Ginge, thought you might still be there.
Funny how people view things differently. GDC1 mentions that your bookie might have booked a holiday based on your Hennessey selections alone and here`s me just about to book a holiday on the back of profits made from all of your weekend selections so far.
Hey ho.
December 1, 2013 at 13:50 #460501Caught up on some sleep in the car park Softie. Pitch black before I made a move and did not get home until 6:00pm.
May be we should hire a helicopter next year?
Value Is EverythingDecember 1, 2013 at 14:06 #4605022:15 Fairyhouse
27 points @ 11/1 Dedigout* (min 9/1)
23 points @ 11/1 Diakali* (min 10/1)PLACE ONLY 17 points @ 7/2 (betfair) Dedigout (min 3/1)(£117 available)
Value Is EverythingDecember 1, 2013 at 14:08 #4605032:15 Fairyhouse
27 points @ 11/1 Dedigout* (min 9/1)
23 points @ 11/1 Diakali* (min 10/1)PLACE ONLY 17 points @ 7/2 (betfair) Dedigout (min 3/1)(£117 available)
I’ll call that 3.3/1 as 7/2 not available once I’d posted.
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