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To Win Befair Chase And King George
20 points @ 14/1 (WH) Silviniaco Conti* (min 12/1)Value Is EverythingTo Win Befair Chase And King George
20 points @ 14/1 (WH) Silviniaco Conti* (min 12/1)10 points @ 40/1 (FD) Cue Card* (min 28/1)
Value Is Everything- Total Posts 764
Why Champagne Fever for the Arkle Ginge? Don’t see his chase form being THAT much better than some of the others (Taquin and Dodging Bullets are two I like at slightly bigger prices). Is it because of his excellent record at Cheltenham?
To be fair the Arkle does seem a favourites race and it’s not that I don’t like him it’s just I don’t think he’s done enough in his chase career to warrant being that much shorter than the others. He is of course the most likely winner at this stage and on the day I’m sure 5/1 will look a superb price.
Why Champagne Fever for the Arkle Ginge? Don’t see his chase form being THAT much better than some of the others (Taquin and Dodging Bullets are two I like at slightly bigger prices). Is it because of his excellent record at Cheltenham?
To be fair the Arkle does seem a favourites race and it’s not that I don’t like him it’s just I don’t think he’s done enough in his chase career to warrant being that much shorter than the others. He is of course the most likely winner at this stage and on the day I’m sure 5/1 will look a superb price.
I’d be suprised if Taquin is a 2 miler Ben.
I backed Dodging Bullets for last year’s Supreme but did not progress much after a promising start over hurdles. Suspect it might be the same over fences. Not convinced his temperament is all it should be.
Grandouet is the second favourite, really good hurdler. But those who spend as many years over hurdles rarely do as well over fences. It’s early days, but did not impress me with his jumping on debut and refused to settle. Also difficult to keep sound.
Oscar Whisky is interesting, but connections have in the past thought of him as a 2m4f horse. Not sure they are right, but could be one to run in the longer race.
Champagne Fever’s stable companion Felix Yonger is a bit of a worry. Mullins is unlikely to run both. But Felix ran second to Simonsig in the Neptune a couple of seasons ago, so is proven at the Jewson trip.It is true Champagne Fever’s form so far is not much (if at all) better than other novices at this point. But as long as he takes to the larger obsticles (jumped generally well and with enthusiasm on debut) – he’s is a big sort, type to make a better chaser than hurdler and we know was way above average for a Supreme Hurdle winner, best for many years. As you say Ben, his Cheltenham form is exceptional, two from two at the Festival. Only very slight negatives are whether he needs to lead and will he need further as he gets older? The new 2m4f novice chase at the Festival is an ante-post punter’s nightmare, there’s a chance of turning up there. However, it can also help. Champagne Fever could frighten some away from the Arkle. In my opinion has a much better than 16.7% (fair 5/1) chance.
Value Is EverythingI see the 5/1 Champagne Fever has gone now. 9/2 is still good value imo.
Value Is Everything3:15 Ascot
42 points @ 7/2 (FD) Drumshambo* (min 7/2)Saver:
13 points @ 61 (L) Viva Colonia (min 6/1)Value Is Everything3:15 Ascot
42 points @ 7/2 (FD) Drumshambo* (min 7/2)Savers:
13 points @ 6/1 (L) Viva Colonia (min 6/1)14 points @ 11/2 (PP) Lancetto (min 11/2)
One more main bet to come in this race.Phoned Corals before Paddy, they’d only allow me £1.82 @ 11/2.
Value Is EverythingBetfair Chase
64 points @ 11/4 (B365) Silviniaco Conti (min 5/2)7 points @ 10/1 (PP) Cue Card (min 8/1)
1 point @ 15/2 (SJ) Cue Card (min 7/1)
13 points @ 23/1 (Betfair) Roi Du Mee (min 20/1)(£38 available)Value Is Everything2:05 Haydock
75 points @ Evens (FD) Al Ferof* (min 5/6)Another tricky Saturday. What do make of Far West? Personally, I think he is more solid than Al Ferof at a slightly bigger price. The only little concern is that he isn’t already odds on. It was over a different trip but I don’t think Al Ferof travelled that well on previous run at Ascot. Perhaps he is better going the other way and Captain Chris is pretty useful on his day.
3:15 Ascot
42 points @ 7/2 (FD) Drumshambo* (min 7/2)Savers:
13 points @ 6/1 (L) Viva Colonia (min 6/1)14 points @ 11/2 (PP) Lancetto (min 11/2)
18 points @ 16/1 (C) King Edmund* (min 14/1)
Value Is Everything12:45 Haydock
40 points @ 6/1 (VC) Runswick Royal* (min 11/2)7 points @ 29/1 (betfair) Morning Royalty* (£7 available)
8 points @ 17/1 (betfair) Doyley Carte (min 14/1)(£8 available)Value Is Everything- Total Posts 764
2:05 Haydock
75 points @ Evens (FD) Al Ferof* (min 5/6)Haha love it Ginge Chris a non-runner
12:45 Haydock
40 points @ 6/1 (VC) Runswick Royal* (min 11/2)7 points @ 29/1 (betfair) Morning Royalty* (£7 available)
8 points @ 17/1 (betfair) Doyley Carte (min 14/1)(£8 available)Another:
16 points @ 28/1 (B365) Morning Royalty* (min 16/1)Value Is Everything
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