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3:00 Wetherby
61 points @ 3/1 (B365) Medinas* (min 5/2)18 points @ 14/1 (SJ) Captain Sunshine (min 10/1)
Value Is EverythingBe aware with the above bet Captain Sunshine could dig his heels in at the start.
Value Is EverythingHennessey Gold Cup
31 points @ 12/1 (Sky) Rocky Creek* (min 9/1)NB: New points system.
Under old system would’ve been 28 points.
More of this change later.Value Is EverythingHennessey Gold Cup
31 points @ 12/1 (Sky) Rocky Creek* (min 9/1)NB: New points system.
Under old system would’ve been 22 points.
More of this change later.Small change to my stakes:
My main bet stakes are based on a calculation. Formulated in two parts, one is "chance of winning", the more chance of winning the more is staked. But also, the more "value" I believe is in the bet the more is staked. I am increasing this "value" part of my staking from "x 5
" to "
x 6
".
My idea of the fair odds (-) minus bookmakers/exchange odds available…
Times (x) by5
…
Plus (+) My idea of fair odds…
Rounded up or down to the nearest point…Under the old points system if I considered something an
11%
chance of winning (fair 8/1) and was available @ 12/1 (fair
7.7%
)… My stake would’ve been:
ie
11
–
7.7
= 3.3
3.3x 5
= 16.5
16.5 + 11 = 27.5 rounded up 2828 points was staked @ 12/1
From the Paddy Power Gold Cup meeting (and any ante-post bet from today that will run from that time):
So under the new system:
11 – 7.7 = 3.3
3.3x 6
= 19.8
19.8 + 11 = 30.8 rounded up to 3131 points @ 12/1 instead of 28 in this case.
It will also probably alter the total amount of points staked per race. At the moment this is usually around 70 to 80 and likely to go up, probably between 80 and 90.
I’ve often been asked what my points mean in £’s. Not going to say but I don’t personally believe in a seperate "betting bank" as such. Seems like it writes off money instead of encouraging investment, but am a naturally cautious person.
My betting bank is my bank account/savings, with every point being 0.0001 of it. If the amount of savings goes up my stakes go up, if savings go down stakes go down.So I’d advise:
If you’ve got £1000 saved 10p per point is advised. 31 points being £3.10 @ 12/1. The usual amount staked per race is often around 70 to 80 points, this would obviously work out at between £7 to £8 per race.
If you’ve got £5000 saved 50p per point is advised. 31 points being £15.50 @ 12/1. 70 to 80 points per race around £35 to £40 staked.
If you’ve got £10,000 saved £1 per point advised. 31 points = £31 @ 12/1. Obvious what 70 to 80 points is.
If £20,000 it’s £2 per point. £31 points = £62 @ 12/1. 70 to 80 points per race works out £140 to £160.
If £30,000 its £3 per point. £31 points = £93 @ 12/1, 70 to 80 points a race £210 to £240.
If £50,000 it’s £5. 31 = £155, with £350 to £400 a race.
If £100,000 saved it’s £10 per point. 31 points = £310 @ 12/1, a usual stake per race of between £700 to £800…Typical days betting could be anything between 1 and 5 races with selections. Planning on more mid-week stuff once the season gets going.
Value Is Everything+373.28 points profit on the season so far.
2013/14 Season +302.28 pointsValue Is EverythingSeems a very safe bank Ginge., a losing run of around 125 races in succession would need to occur before the bank was bust.
I think anyone with any sort of nouse would have given up on your tipping a long time before that occurred
Anyway, since when did you start using a bank!!
Seems a very safe bank Ginge., a losing run of around 125 races in succession would need to occur before the bank was bust.
I think anyone with any sort of nouse would have given up on your tipping a long time before that occurred
Anyway, since when did you start using a bank!!
Did you think it was all under the mattress Softie?
I stress the figures do not relate to a seperate "betting bank", it’s savings as well. So a punter needs to eat, drink, pay the bills, buy car etc out of that money. Which is probably why (if someone is used to a "betting bank" it might seem overly cautious.
Value Is EverythingIt’s 1250 races!
I thought living allowance must of been included
What is 1250 races Sam?
Value Is EverythingDone a bit of totalling up.
2011/2012 Season Profit +1552.85 points
2012/2013 Season Profit +4470.00 points2013/14 Season so far +302.28 points
Total Thread Profit +6325.13 points
Value Is EverythingIt’s 1250 races!
I thought living allowance must of been included
Not at 80 points a race sam, if i have my maths right that is
Ah, makes sense now Ginge, i was working on the separate bank theory.
So working on your table there i can safely go to £50 per point, wonder if i`ll get on?……..anyone gullible enough out there to believe
that
?
Excellent figures though and gives you a new season target to aim at with a nice start to proceedings as well.
I would not include the house with those "savings" Softie, got to have a place to live and a car etc. But you could include the "second home" in Portugal if the wife is willing?
If the bookies think you’re a mug they’ll let you have any amount on, if they think you know what’s what you’ll be lucky to get on much money. Have to follow me and bet with betfair.
Value Is Everything2011/2012 Season Profit +1552.85 points
2012/2013 Season Profit +4470.00 points2013/14 Season so far +302.28 points
Total Thread Profit +6325.13 points
Current Ante-Post bets:
Hennessey Gold Cup
31 points @ 12/1 (Sky) Rocky Creek* (min 9/1)2014 Champion Hurdle
20 points @ 14/1 (WH) The New One* (min 10/1)
25 points @ 8/1 (L) My Tent Or Yours* (min 6/1)
20 points @ 10/1 (C) Our Connor* (min 7/1)2014 Champion Chase
36 points @ 5/1 (VC Non-runner free bet) Simonsig* (min 4/1 must be with VC)(£50 available)
18 points @ 16/1 (VC Non-runner free bet) Cue Card* (min 14/1 must be with VC)(£50 available)
2014 Stayers Hurdle
35 points @ 7/1 (PP) Solwhit* (min 6/1)2014 Cheltenham Gold Cup
16 points @ 25/1 (WH) Boston Bob* (min 20/1)
32 points @ 8/1 (WH) Sir Des Champs* (min 8/1)2014 Grand National
30 points @ 25/1 (VC NRFB) Teaforthree* (min 14/1)
Stakes for ante-post bets are not yet included in results.Value Is Everything
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