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4:20 Punchestown
50 points @ 2/1 (VC) Jezki* (min 2/1)Glad someone else fancies Jezki Ginge! CF is very strong in the market and being widely tipped. I think CF will be better over further in time and Jezki might just have too much pace for him round Punchestown, I know CF won here last year but he’s galloping stlye suits Cheltenham perferctly not sure he’ll be quite so effective here.
Certainly Jezki is now the value at 2/1.
Exactly Pants,
Champagne Fever and Rule The World are both stayers at the trip. Champagne Fever will no doubt try to bring stamina in to play, but he’s always likely to be best suited by Cheltenham. I do rank the Supreme winner as having a better chance than the third today; more because of trainer form than Cheltenhamform
. But the difference is not (imo) as much as the betting suggests.
Hopefully the market today is a case of punters wanting to be on the horse who finished in front of the other… If Jezki is thought to be not quite 100% right – then that would also explain the market weakness. Jessie is not exactly firing.
I don’t fancy Rule The World coming back in trip. Totally outspeeded at 2m4f and (imo) needs the other two to run poorly to win.
Value Is Everything- Total Posts 764
Bloody Townend
Bloody Townend
My thoughts exactly Ben.
What was he doing? At Cheltenham he rushed around the whole field before falling. This time gave the horse far too much to do and then made some ground up before falling again. Can’t tell whether the fall was his fault but even so…Value Is Everything5:30 Punchestown
33 points @ 5/1 (PP) First Lieutenent* (min 5/1)Value Is Everything5:30 Punchestown
33 points @ 5/1 (PP) First Lieutenent* (min 5/1)46 points @ 9/4 (SJ) Sir Ses Champs* (min 9/4)
Value Is EverythingPurely out of interest and nothing else, here is the Pricewise view on the 5.30 race to throw into the mix.
"7-1 Captain Chris
to take commandBAR Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Bobs Worth and to a lesser extent The Giant Bolster, it is hard to think of a leading staying chaser who is missing from the Bet Online With TheTote.com Punchestown Gold Cup this evening, writes Tom Segal.
Gold Cup runner-up Sir Des Champs and King George winner Long Run line up, as well as the Aintree winner First Lieutenant, but it could be worth splitting stakes on a couple of British challengers who haven’t had things go right for the most part this season but have everything in their favour today.
The first of them is Captain Chris, who is a top-class chaser on his day and especially good when going right-handed.
He was narrowly beaten by Long Run in the King George in terrible ground at Kempton and looked like giving Cue Card plenty to think about at Ascot before making a terrible mistake two out. Forget his run in the Gold Cup last time because the Hobbs horses didn’t excel at Cheltenham and he is nowhere near as good that way round.
Menorah has bounced back from a poor run at Cheltenham to run two crackers and the Hobbs horses always seem to run well at Punchestown, as Planet Of Sound demonstrated by winning this race three years ago.
The other one to back is Riverside Theatre, who I think has been crying out for three miles and a right-handed track. Despite winning last year’s Ryanair, Riverside Theatre seems to hate Cheltenham and he is much better than he showed there last month. He ran his usual get-behind-and-stay-on-late race but his old Ascot form is miles better than that and every time he runs he looks like he’s crying out for three miles.
This season has been a bit of a write-off for Riverside Theatre as he had bad stomach ulcers prior to running badly in the King George and his only other run was in the Ryanair. Today he gets the chance to show what he can do at what I think is going to prove to be his best trip and on a track that should suit. He is much too big a price on his best form and is coming here fresh against a whole host of staying chasers who have been on the go all season.
Any of Sir Des Champs, Long Run or First Lieutenant can win, but at this stage of the season they have the type of profile I like to take on. Sir Des Champs had a hard race in the Gold Cup and finished tired, Long Run’s form has seemingly tailed off a bit and First Lieutenant has been to Aintree after Cheltenham and will have to be as good as ever to win today."
Nice result on Jezki Ginge, pleasing when a race pans out pretty much as you see it in your minds eye prior, although nobody could have predicted CF would run quite so poorly.
Having a little nibble on SDC today as saver but main bets will be on FL and CC, both appear to better value than the favourite, didn’t get on CC before Segal tipped him which was a tad annoying but still a decent bet at 11/2, especially with PP’s offer of money back if SDC wins.
Think Road To Riches looks a huge price at 10/1 in the 3m Novice Hurdle if you can forgive his last run, the fave is way too short for what he’s acheived on track imo, Inish Island has better form in the book and depsite Ruby prefering Ballycasey I’d rather be on the Mullins second string at the prices.
Not surprised Tom has gone for Captain Chris and Riverside Theatre Pants/Softie. Has a soft spot for them both having tipped the former for the Arkle when others were dismissing him. Also told us in the Q&A he’d backed the latter ante-post for the Gold Cup.
Had the former been 7/1 last night I would’ve had a saver on it myself. Right-handed will definitely suit Captain Chris and trainer is in better form now than at Cheltenham. Expecting a return to the Kempton/Ascot form, but whether that form is good enough if either Gigginstown horse runs to form – doubtful. Admittedly both of those had hard races but Captain Chris didn’t exactly have an easy one at Cheltenham. Can see him beating Long Run this time unless… Don’t suppose anyone has heard whether the Cohen horse wears ear plugs in the race itself?
Riverside Theatre’s last few races seem to suggest he’s staying on at the end of races, but is it because he’s crying out for further? Or is it temperament? Ulcers may well have been a problem, but connections were adamant Riverside Theatre was over those problems at Cheltenham, yet ran the same type of race as (has become) normal. Looking further back, to when he was at his best around Kempton/Ascot – he always travelled so well – so wasn’t crying out for 3m at that time. After an ante-post win on Riverside in the Ryanair, I have a soft spot too and kept backing him until now. Tom might be right, but I doubt whether all Riverside Theatre’s problems are over and believe it may be effecting temperament.Yes, Sir Des and First Lieutenent might not run to form, but to rely on them both under-performing when Captain Chris is now exactly the same price as the latter – not for me…
Not that Tom would ever admit to going for "value".
Value Is EverythingThink Road To Riches looks a huge price at 10/1 in the 3m Novice Hurdle if you can forgive his last run, the fave is way too short for what he’s acheived on track imo, Inish Island has better form in the book and depsite Ruby prefering Ballycasey I’d rather be on the Mullins second string at the prices.
I had a look at the race Pants and found it too difficult to work out.
Ballycasey
looked to have bags of potential last time out and on that looks a good price even at Evens. But a very late withdrawl from the Spa after going lame changes things. We don’t know if that has set him back.
You are right Pants, if it wasn’t for a poor run fromRoad To Riches
last time he’d worth a bet at 10/1. But unless I know for certain the reason – it is impossible for me to "forgive his last run" because it
is
in the book.
Inish Island
is the obvious bet if anything. In an uncompetitive race (28/1 bar three) if Inish Island was available at 3/1 would’ve taken an each way punt even with 7 runners. But seeing as though his stable companion has much more scope for further improvement – don’t want to take shorter.
none of the others appeal as capable of winning unless all three favs run shockers.Value Is EverythingI’d chance Long Run for this. Although the perception is that he wants further, he has only won once at the Gold Cup trip and has four wins over three miles. Perhaps the couple of furlongs less will help him and he is very consistent. I thought Sir Des Champs had a hard race chasing home Bobs Worth. At double his odds, Long Run would be my pick but not with 100% confidence at this time of the season.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Long Run pushed Sir Des all the way Steve. I’ve backed Long Run for both King George and Gold Cup this season. To be honest in performance terms disappointed me at Kempton, always thought him better than that. But still think connections are missing out. Although is "consistent" these days, that consistencey is not at the Gold Cup/first King George winning level. IMO needs ear plugs to produce his very best. Almost threw away the race in December by idling. Without them usually finds one or two too good at the highest level. So now my theory is (unless ear plugged) temperament means win odds are not as good as "form" suggests. So I’d probably either oppose or back just for a place nowadays. Might be wrong, it’s just another one of my crazy theories Steve.
Value Is Everything5:30 Punchestown
33 points @ 5/1 (PP) First Lieutenent* (min 5/1)46 points @ 9/4 (SJ) Sir Ses Champs* (min 9/4)
Days Profit +70.5 points
Total Profit +6,120.8 pointsValue Is EverythingLong Run pushed Sir Des all the way Steve. I’ve backed Long Run for both King George and Gold Cup this season. To be honest in performance terms disappointed me at Kempton, always thought him better than that. But still think connections are missing out. Although is "consistent" these days, that consistencey is not at the Gold Cup/first King George winning level. IMO needs ear plugs to produce his very best. Almost threw away the race in December by idling. Without them usually finds one or two too good at the highest level. So now my theory is (unless ear plugged) temperament means win odds are not as good as "form" suggests. So I’d probably either oppose or back just for a place nowadays. Might be wrong, it’s just another one of my crazy theories Steve.
It was a great race, looked hard to call at one stage. Sir Des Champs came under a bit of pressure and responded well. Looked like Long Run was booked for third at best but he rallied and whether Sir Des Champs was idling in front or getting a bit tired it was certainly touch and go going over the last. Its hard not to think Davy Russell looked far more polished in the saddle, albeit Waley-Cohen did get stuck into Long Run as best as he could. As usual, when you think the form might fall apart at this time of year it hold up like a charm. A handsome compliment to Bobs Worth.
I am not familiar with the details of the use of earplugs for horses but Long Run has had a few disappointments as well as his high profile wins. None more so for me than when he was third in the RSA at Cheltenham when only 5 years old. That let me down for a good payday.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
5:30 Punchestown
20 points @ 17.5/1 (betfair) Holywell* (min 14/1)(£38 available)Value Is Everything5:30 Punchestown
20 points @ 17.5/1 (betfair) Holywell* (min 14/1)(£38 available)25 points @ 6.6/1 (betfair) Reve De Sivola* (min 13/2)(£737 available)
Reve is probably Pricewise tomorrow, so might be best to wait.
May come back with a saver.
Value Is Everything
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