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Hi Ginger, good luck with your plays in the Grand National. I totally agree RE: On His Own and most of those you have at the top of your list.
I must put in a good word for Major Malarkey, though. I wouldn’t say he has his own ideas exactly. His form suffers in the traditional Twiston-Davies New Year slump, but is quite genuine on the good days imo. Arguably well-handicapped on his Midlands National 2nd to Master Overseer too (much improved in the ratings since, pair clear). Maybe he doesn’t have the class to win, plus I don’t think Tom Scudamore is the great rider of this course, but I’ll take some of the 500/1 you quote.
2013 Grand National
Already backed
18 points @ 33/1 (b365) Cappa Bleu*
24 points @ 20/1 (VC) Teaforthree* (min 16/1)
18 points @ 33/1 (FD) Wyck Hill* (min 20/1)
10 points @ 50/1 (Sky NRNB) Lion Na Bearnai* (min 28/1)
Money back on Lion Na Bearnai.
15 points @ 20/1 (FD NRNB) Ballthazar King (min 16/1)
4 points @ 119/1 (betfair) Auroras Encore (min 50/1)(£130 available)
Now:
3 points @ 339/1 (betfair) Tarquinius (min 80/1)(£5 available)
May go in again once final decs are known.26 points @ 10/1 (WH) On His Own* (min 8/1)
8 points @ 12/1 (L) Seabass (min 12/1)
3 points @ 33/1 (betfair) Join Together (min 25/1
Think I may have under-estimated Soll
2 points @ 47/1 (betfair) Soll (min 40/1)Value Is EverythingThere is one other horse that i feel cannot be ignored Ginge,- Suunyhill Boy.
Appreciate that his fitness needs to be taken on trust, and i hear what you say in terms of his mark, BUT, could be in the shake up if all is well, and at 25`s in places and 32 now on Betfair, is worthy of a little interest.
Drying ground would also be in his favour.Totally agree with drying ground suiting Sunnyhillboy Softie, if you look at my prices he’s actually a shade of value now. However, I hate backing JP’s horses when they’re weak in the market. I feel if Jonjo thought he had the horse right there’d be no way he’d be 32. Although I suppose it could be a bit of the AP neglected. The same has happened with Nicholls/Jacob and Join Together, surely bookmakers have had money for last year’s connections, which is why I’ve only put 3 points on him.
Value Is Everything2:15 Aintree
50 points @ 5/2 (betfair) Alderwood* (min 2/1)(£51 available)Ideal conditions for Overturn today Ginge, think he’ll blitz them, McCain overdue a return to form after a poor Cheltenham, liked the way Counsel ran yesterday so fingers crossed.
Alderwood won at the Festival last year on similar going Pants. I love Overturn, as I expect you remember I backed him ante-post for the Arkle. Track and going will suit, but will it be a sufficent test of stamina for him on that ground? Also the betting seems to be made as if there’s no question of Overturn being back to his best. Am afraid there must be a possibility Overturn will not run to form again. I’d have Overturn third favourite in my book Pants.
Reason why I’ve also backed Marshal Zhukov is there’s only 3 top horses, two had reasonably hard races at Cheltenham and the other wasn’t persevered with after Maguire made that mistake.I’d be delighted if I am wrong about Overturn and will cheer him home; but I can not afford to be "loyal" to my favourite horses Pants.
Got to keep an objective mind.Value Is EverythingHi Ginger, good luck with your plays in the Grand National. I totally agree RE: On His Own and most of those you have at the top of your list.
I must put in a good word for Major Malarkey, though. I wouldn’t say he has his own ideas exactly. His form suffers in the traditional Twiston-Davies New Year slump, but is quite genuine on the good days imo. Arguably well-handicapped on his Midlands National 2nd to Master Overseer too (much improved in the ratings since, pair clear). Maybe he doesn’t have the class to win, plus I don’t think Tom Scudamore is the great rider of this course, but I’ll take some of the 500/1 you quote.
Not sure I’d call Major Malarkey "genuine" TYF, but you might be right. It’s possible it might not be temperament as much as an intermitent physical problem, noting an early PU last time.
38. 134 (133) Major Malarkey 10 10-0 (9-13) Nigel Twiston-Davis 2P-265P
Good neck 2nd off 1 lb lower mark to Lively Baron in 5 runner uncompetitive handicap on reappearance in December. Major Malarkey has been a long way below form in three races since. Only jumped two fences last time out (March) reportedly lost his action and pulled up. Best effort last season, when 2nd to Master Overseer in Midlands National (4m1½f Good-soft) off a 6 lbs lower mark than today. Inconsistent staying chaser with his own ideas about the game.
Tom Scudamore 0.2% 500/1(200/1)
500/1 is the price I want to beat to back the horse myself;
200/1
being the price I would be (if so inclined) lay it.
Value Is EverythingI reckon the one top class horse who is SO ground dependant is Overturn.
Don`t think he`s had ground he enjoys for some considerable time, so, if he is still at the top of his game, today might well see him at his best.
Alderwood ,however, seems to be improving at a rate of knots….lip smacking contest today i think.
2014 Stayers Hurdle
35 points @ 7/1 (PP) Solwhit* (min 6/1)Over-reaction there Ginge,impressive as he was today he has a history of problems and will be a 10yo next year.You obviously didn’t appreciate the fact that
At Fishers Cross
does handle faster ground and that will bode well come next spring as he wont mind what the weather is,a bit like
My Tent or Yours
!I at least wont have sleepless nights worrying about the ground next year.
35.
137
Auroras Encore
11 10-3 Sue Smith OP45F5
Three good runs culminated in excellent head 2nd giving 9 lbs to winner Merigo in Scottish National (4m½f Good) in April last year. Auroras Encore raced up with the pace and looked the winner jumping the last, just caught on line. Now off 6 lbs lower mark. Shown very little in 6 starts this season, last one in March. However, vast majority of Auroras Encore’s best lifetime efforts have come in the Spring, including winning over hurdles at this meeting in 2008. Sometimes can make a mistake and stable haven’t had a winner for some time; but some runners have run well and Auroras Encore’s chance may be underestimated by bookmakers.
Ryan Mania2.25% 40/1
(28/1)
Value Is Everything2013 Grand National
Already backed18 points @ 33/1 (b365) Cappa Bleu*
24 points @ 20/1 (VC) Teaforthree* (min 16/1)
18 points @ 33/1 (FD) Wyck Hill* (min 20/1)
10 points @ 50/1 (Sky NRNB) Lion Na Bearnai* (min 28/1)
Money back on Lion Na Bearnai.
15 points @ 20/1 (FD NRNB) Ballthazar King (min 16/1)4 points @ 119/1 (betfair) Auroras Encore (min 50/1)(£130 available)
Now:
3 points @ 339/1 (betfair) Tarquinius (min 80/1)(£5 available)
May go in again once final decs are known.26 points @ 10/1 (WH) On His Own* (min 8/1)
8 points @ 12/1 (L) Seabass (min 12/1)3 points @ 33/1 (betfair) Join Together (min 25/1
Think I may have under-estimated Soll
2 points @ 47/1 (betfair) Soll (min 40/1)The biggest priced individual winner I’ve ever backed! 119/1
Value Is EverythingCertainly an inspired inclusion Ginge, well picked.
Won`t talk about Exacta and Trifecta perms save to say they paid a fortune and i never got involved.
Nice one Ginge! Can’t believe anyone could have picked that. Well done!
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Nice one Ginge! Can’t believe anyone could have picked that. Well done!
Thanks Joni,
I thought it would be some time before I could top Neptune Collonges.
Peter.h has been tipping Auroras Encore for ages and Beau Ranger backed it too.Value Is EverythingCertainly an inspired inclusion Ginge, well picked.
Won`t talk about Exacta and Trifecta perms save to say they paid a fortune and i never got involved.
4m3½f, Class 1, £547,267.50
1 Auroras Encore 66/1
Tipped @ 119/1
2 Cappa Bleu 12/1
Tipped @ 33/1
3 Teaforthree 10/1
Tipped @ 20/1
4 Oscar Time 66/1
40 ran Distances: 9l, nk, 11l
TIME 9m 12.00s (slow by 8.00s)Jockey: Ryan Mania
Trainer: Sue Smithtoteswingers 1&2 £147.60, 1&3 £263.40, 2&3 £16.10 WIN £133.00 PL £26.30, £3.40, £2.90, £18.30
Ex £1525.90
CSF £706.08
TRICAST £8408.37 TRIFECTA £9792.90Some nice Exactas and Trifecta and Swingers there Softie.
Value Is Everything2014 Stayers Hurdle
35 points @ 7/1 (PP) Solwhit* (min 6/1)Over-reaction there Ginge,impressive as he was today he has a history of problems and will be a 10yo next year.You obviously didn’t appreciate the fact that
At Fishers Cross
does handle faster ground and that will bode well come next spring as he wont mind what the weather is,a bit like
My Tent or Yours
!I at least wont have sleepless nights worrying about the ground next year.
I am a big fan of At Fishers Cross Gord, having backed him (as the main bet) in two handicaps, a Grade 2 and Grade 1 (antepost). However, the "history of problems" you talk about with Solwhit can equally (if not more so) be levelled at At Fishers Cross. Having leg and back trouble last year that kept his form down. True, now shown he can handle goodish ground, but with a pronounced knee action how many races on the surface will he take? At Fishers Cross is unexposed and will probably improve further, but needs to do so to reach Solwhit’s standard.
Solwhit himself may well be ten years old next year, but we are talking about stayers, not 2 milers. Good horses usually lose a bit of speed when they get to 9 or 10, but that’s less of a problem with stayers. In my experience it’s usually at 11 they hit the downgrade button. Though admittedly a chance he’ll decline next year, there’s also an arguement to say he’s unexposed at staying trips. 2 runs at 3m+, 2 wins and winning with more in the tank. As good if not better than his 2 mile form. Himself proving he acts on goodish ground.
Taking Big Buck’s out, in my opinion Solwhit is as good as most winners of the Stayers Hurdle in the last 20 years. Although Big Buck’s is the best Staying Hurdler we’ve ever seen, wouldn’t touch him @ 4/1. Don’t expect him to make next year’s race.
Don’t get me wrong, in my opinion At fishers Cross and Solwhit have about the same chance of winning the Stayers Hurdle, difference is At Fishers Cross is 5/1 and Solwhit available @ 7/1. Value is everything Gord.
Value Is EverythingResults Update
Sat 30th March
From 4 races main bet Noble Legend and Monsieur Cadou. (saver) won.
Staked 281
Returns 302
+ 21Sun 31st March
Only bets in one race, one main bet winner Realt Mor.
Stakes 76
Return 180
+104Thurs 4th April
Bets in 5 races, only win First Lieutenent.
Stakes 309
Return 210.8
Fri 5th April
Bets in 5 races, Minella Forfitness (incl. reduction factor and commission). Saver Trio D’Alene also won.
Stakes 274
Returns 324.72
+50.72Sat 6th April
Bets in 3 races, Auroras Encore (incl. commission) and saver Solwhit.
Stakes 252
Returns 529.7
+277.75 Day profit +355.22
Total Profit +5320.35
Value Is Everything
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